Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS48 KWNS 290835
SWOD48
SPC AC 290834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURE A RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. AND PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY4-5
/WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY/ PERIOD.  POTENTIAL APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR A 15-PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE.
STRENGTHENING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MOVES INTO THE N-CNTRL U.S. BY
DAY6-7 /FRIDAY-SATURDAY/.  MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND THE QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST LENDING PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS.
BY DAY8 /SUNDAY/...MODELS GENERALLY CONVERGE TOWARDS MAINTAINING A
RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S.

..SMITH.. 05/29/2016



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