Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
ACUS48 KWNS 010951
SWOD48
SPC AC 010950

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IN THE MEAN AN UPPER TROUGH OF VARYING
AMPLITUDES WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. DURING THE
EXTENDED RANGE. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW MOST OF
THE 4-8 PERIOD. AN EXCEPTION CONTINUES TO BE THURSDAY /DAY 5/ OVER
THE FL PENINSULA. THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE BAJA CA AREA IS
FORECAST DEAMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO A CONFLUENT FLOW
REGIME BEFORE REACHING THE FL PENINSULA. MODELS HAVE YET TO
DEMONSTRATE GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...AND DIFFERENCES ALSO PERSIST BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN MCS WILL FORM OVER
THE GULF AND SPREAD INTO THE PENINSULA SOMETIME THURSDAY. WHILE A
SEVERE THREAT MIGHT ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS AND DEEP-LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT
SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A 15% OR GREATER PROBABILISTIC RISK AREA AT
THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 02/01/2015


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.