Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS48 KWNS 020854
SWOD48
SPC AC 020853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY INTEREST EARLY IN THE 4-8 PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS AS PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS WHICH MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATE SHOULD BE AROUND THE DAY 5
/SUNDAY/ TIME FRAME. AN E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL
OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS INDUCED BY THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
IMPULSE AND ADVANCE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT. WHILE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY REMAIN IN
COOL SECTOR DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF STALLED FRONT...SUFFICIENT FLOW
MAY SPREAD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF WARM SECTOR FOR AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME REMAINS EVOLUTION OF EARLY STORMS. A
CATEGORICAL RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR ERN PORTIONS OF
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 09/02/2015



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