Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 010957
SWOD48
SPC AC 010956

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
IN THE LARGE SCALE...A BLOCKING RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED ALONG
AND JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST FROM MID-WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  MEANWHILE...A BROADLY CONFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW REGIME
EXTENDING FROM KS/OK INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN 1/ A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN AND BAHAMAS...AND 2/ A LARGE CANADIAN VORTEX LOCATED
OVER AND TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY.  LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ON DAY 4 /WED-MARCH 4/...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A WARM SECTOR
AND NEAR A COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY ADVANCES SWD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NWRN-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND THROUGH THE SERN
STATES TO NRN FL.  ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE
PRESENCE OF MEAGER INSTABILITY/POOR LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT.

BEYOND DAY 4...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED
SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN AND OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST
PRECLUDING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INLAND ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES.

..PETERS.. 03/01/2015


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