Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 280804
SWOD48
SPC AC 280802

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...NRN PLAINS...
NWD ADVECTION OF RICH MOISTURE WILL OCCUR LATE SAT/D3 INTO THE
SUN/D4 PERIOD OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL
ENTER THE REGION...AND MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY IN
LONGITUDINAL POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT DURING PEAK
HEATING...LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN A 15 PERCENT PROBABILISTIC
DELINEATION ON SUN/D4. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A MORE
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PAC NW EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT PREDICTABILITY IN TIMING/MAGNITUDE DETERIORATES AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
PLAINS MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC STRONG
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.

..ROGERS.. 07/28/2016


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