Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS01 KWNS 290524
SWODY1
SPC AC 290523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS BUT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITH BROAD TROUGHING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING BETWEEN
THESE TWO LARGE SCALE FEATURES -- FROM THE PACIFIC NW SWD INTO NRN
CA/WRN GREAT BASIN -- WILL RESULT IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WITH A CLOSED-LOW EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL CA/NV BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD OR EARLY IN THE D2 PERIOD.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
S-CNTRL VA SWWD TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE SLOW SEWD PROGRESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LIKELY STRETCHING
FROM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SWWD INTO CNTRL FL BY 12/TUE. FARTHER
W...STRONG HIGH -- AOA 1050 MB -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE PLAINS.

...SOUTHEAST...
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITHIN AN
ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR CONVECTION IS OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE GA/SC COAST. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AS LAPSE
RATES REMAIN POOR AND THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING PRECLUDES ANY
AIRMASS MODIFICATION. A FEW STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

..MOSIER.. 12/29/2014




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.