Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 132002
SWODY1
SPC AC 132001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID MS VALLEY INTO NY/PA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED
HAIL ARE FORECAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO WESTERN OR CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OREGON...EASTERN COLORADO...AND
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

ADDED A SMALL AREA OF LOW SVR WIND PROBS TO PORTIONS OF THE WRN GULF
COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE WWD-MOVING WEAK UPPER LOW. LOCALIZED
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL HAVE SOME ENHANCED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...PW VALUES OF
AROUND 2 INCHES...AND MID-LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WRAPPING AROUND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH MAY SERVE TO
ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH.

MINOR EWD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SLIGHT RISK WERE MADE OVER PORTIONS OF
MD/WV/PA WHERE UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF SVR TSTMS HAVE A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF MOVING EWD WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS. SEE ALSO MCD 1356 FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NY AND MUCH OF PA.

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN WY...AIDED BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. REF MCD 1355
FOR THE LATEST SHORT-TERM THINKING IN THIS AREA.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.

..BUNTING.. 07/13/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

...MID MS VALLEY INTO NY/PA...
A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TODAY...WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY.  MOIST
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM MO/IL
INTO NY/PA...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S ARE EXPECTED.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN
PA/SOUTHERN NY INTO IND/IL ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THIS REGION
WILL EXPERIENCE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY...PROMOTING ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY
REGIONS.

FARTHER WEST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE FROM MO INTO KS/OK.  NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE MAY RESULT IN A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

...EASTERN CO...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CO.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

...AZ...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO.  ENHANCED EASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
WAVE WILL AFFECT AZ TODAY...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ.  FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW
MAY ALLOW OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS THIS EVENING.  THIS SCENARIO AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.



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