Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS01 KWNS 261942
SPC AC 261941
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop from central to northeast
Texas this evening and spread into northern Louisiana tonight. A
few instances of large hail are possible with the strongest
activity, and a marginal risk for strong to damaging wind gusts will
also exist, especially from far eastern Texas into northern
...Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
The primary change to previous outlook has been to expand the
marginal risk area farther east into northern LA to account for the
possibility of a few instances of strong to damaging wind gusts.
Storms are expected to develop in evolving warm advection regime
from central through northeast TX this evening in association with a
progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough. Initial storms will
likely be at least slightly elevated with some threat for large
hail. However, consensus among CAMS is that activity will eventually
evolve into a forward propagating MCS. This suggests at least a
marginal threat will exist for a few strong to damaging wind gusts
from far eastern TX into northern LA later tonight.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/
Morning water vapor loop shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
digging across southern CA. Weak mid-level height falls and
strengthening southwesterly low-level winds ahead of this system
over TX will result in warm advection and lift, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms forming later this afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings suggest that elevated CAPE values of up to 1500
J/kg may develop, along with favorable deep layer shear for a few
rotating storms. Hail will be the main threat from isolated
stronger cells. At this time, the overall severe threat appears