Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 290532
SWODY1
SPC AC 290530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TODAY WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES.  A WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION OVER WY WILL ENACT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY AND THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
INTERSECT A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CO HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG EARLY
DAY HEATING INVOF THE FRONT RANGE AND SERN WY AND A WEAK CAP WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION BY MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SPREADING EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH 500-1500
J/KG MLCAPE.  DESPITE MODEST SPEED SHEAR...A DEEPLY VEERING PROFILE
WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED BUT VIGOROUS STORMS IN WY/CO.
WEAKER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER HIGH IN NM MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STRONGER PULSATING STORMS PERHAPS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED
HAIL/WIND RISK.  THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL
SERVE TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN CO
INTO KS/OK.

...WI...
DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S.  COOL TEMPS ALOFT /AOB -16 DEG C AT H5/ COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
NEAR 500 J/KG. SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A BELT OF 30-35 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL
SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GENERALLY SMALL HAIL...BUT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

..SMITH/DEAN.. 07/29/2014



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