Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SD INTO W-CNTRL AND CNTRL
NEB AND NWRN KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/SRN
ALBERTA ESEWD TO THE MT/ND BORDER AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  BROAD SW MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER ERN CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS CNTRL ONTARIO.  MODERATE H5 WLY/S OVER PARTS OF W TX
WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW.

...DAKOTAS INTO NWRN KS...
AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BLACK HILLS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WITH LOWER 60S FARTHER E OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THE
MO RIVER.  STRONG HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON
INVOF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE --EXTENDING SWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS-- AND PROBABLY FOCUS ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE WARM SECTOR
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KT OVER NWRN SD TO 25-30 KT FARTHER S
IN NEB/NWRN KS.  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  A CLUSTER OR TWO OF
STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD AND
POSSIBLY FARTHER S ON THE NOSE OF AN INTENSIFYING CNTRL PLAINS LLJ
AHEAD OF A SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE FORECAST FOR DAY 2 IS SOMEWHAT CONTINGENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  THE DRYLINE AND
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL POTENTIALLY SERVE AS FOCI FOR
LATE DAY STORMS.  STRONG HEATING IN AREAS VOID OF PREVIOUS NIGHT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/EARLY-DAY CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG FORECAST BY
MID AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL WLY/S WILL BE MODEST FOR AREAS GENERALLY N
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN FAVORING PRIMARILY A MULTICELLULAR MODE.
STRONGER WIND PROFILES FARTHER S WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT COUPLED WITH THE STRONG BUOYANCY.  ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING.

...NEW ENGLAND...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BONNIE WILL SHEAR NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS DURING THE DAY.  IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WHERE STRONGER
HEATING OCCURS FARTHER NW FROM NEAR THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AMIDST AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S/.  YET...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION ONLY SHOW
MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEVELOPING BY PEAK HEATING DESPITE MODERATELY
STRONG WIND PROFILES.  AS SUCH...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSE PRIMARILY A LOW-PROBABILITY
WIND DAMAGE RISK BEFORE STORMS MOVE E OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
DIURNAL STABILIZATION OCCURS BY EARLY EVENING.

..SMITH.. 05/29/2016

$$



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