Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 301722
SWODY2
SPC AC 301721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEB...NRN KS...AND
NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN INDIANA AND OH INTO
FAR WRN NY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO.

...SYNOPSIS...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLY
RETURN FLOW REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND MO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

TO THE E...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FROM NRN INDIANA INTO WRN NY BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY BUT ENHANCED WIND FIELDS PERHAPS SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG
STORMS.

...SRN NEB/NRN KS INTO NRN MO...
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND MID/UPPER
60S F DEWPOINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH SLY WINDS OCCURS ACROSS KS.
WEAKLY-VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WOULD APPEAR TO
FAVOR MULTICELL OR BRIEF SUPERCELL MODES WITH A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND REPORTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...NRN IN...OH...FAR WRN NY...
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND A RIBBON OF 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE AHEAD SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING NWLY WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL LENGTHEN
HODOGRAPHS TO THE POINT OF SUPPORTING A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL WITH ANY THREAT DISSIPATING BY EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 07/30/2015



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