Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 251716
SWODY2
SPC AC 251715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING SATURDAY FROM THE
ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS.

...ARKLATEX TO TX/LA COAST...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF WRN U.S.
TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO THEN TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
ASCENT...COINCIDENT WITH INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...SWD
ALONG THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY AFTER DARK.  WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING PARCELS LIFTED
NEAR 850MB WILL BE UNINHIBITED TO FREELY CONVECT AFTER 03-06Z TIME
FRAME.  WHILE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...EXPECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
LIMIT HAIL PRODUCTION...AS MUCAPE WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF
500 J/KG.

..DARROW.. 12/25/2014




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