Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 241721
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night
across portions of the central High Plains, and during the day
Thursday across portions of the mid-Atlantic region.

..Central High Plains...
In the wake of the cold frontal passage across the central High
Plains Thursday morning, a modestly moist/upslope low-level flow
will develop across the Front Range with dew points in the upper 40s
over northeast Colorado increasing to the lower/mid 50s over
northwest Kansas.  Strengthening 500-mb west-southwesterly flow will
overspread the discussion area during the period in conjunction with
weak height falls.  Storm development is expected over the mountains
during the late morning with an increase in coverage by the early
afternoon.  This activity will move eastward into the Front Range
and High Plains during the afternoon.  Very steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates and strong heating will result in steep low- to
mid-tropospheric lapse rates.  A veering wind profile strengthening
with height into the mid levels will support the potential for
organized storms.  Isolated large hail/severe gusts will be the
threats with the stronger storms.  Upscale growth into a linear
cluster may occur by evening over the central High Plains with
severe gusts becoming the primary threat.  Uncertainty remains
whether a thunderstorm cluster/MCS will develop over eastern
CO/western KS.  If confidence can be gained in a west to east moving
severe cluster/MCS (similar to NAM model time-lagged solutions),
then an upgrade in severe probabilities will likely be warranted in
a later outlook update.

..Mid Atlantic...
Strong ascent overspreads the area Thursday in association with the
upper-level trough as it lifts northeast across the mid-Atlantic
region. Cool temperatures aloft will contribute towards weak
buoyancy in advance of a cold front that will sweep eastward off the
coast during the afternoon.  Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible in advance of the front and stronger storms may produce
isolated marginally severe hail and wind damage from localized gusts
45-60 mph.

..Smith.. 05/24/2017

$$



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