Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 031718
SWODY2
SPC AC 031717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT TO WRN IL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

BROAD HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE
DAY2 PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PLAINS FROM
TX INTO NEBRASKA.  LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST AN MCS-TYPE
COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER NEBRASKA/KS WHICH SHOULD
REINFORCE E-W SFC BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE DRAPED FROM CNTRL
MO...WNWWD ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO NERN CO.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR HOW THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE DURING THE DAY
BUT CONVECTION SHOULD PROPAGATE/SPREAD EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
REGION BY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE.

OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE EXPECTED TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG/NORTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED I-70 BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THE EXPECTED NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT...STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL WEAKEN
INHIBITION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CO/KS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BOTH IN THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS OVER SERN CO AND
WITHIN MORE FAVORABLE MOIST UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT.  SEASONALLY WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD NOT PREVENT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND SUBSEQUENT MATURATION/MOVEMENT COULD ENHANCE THE
PROSPECT FOR ONE OR MORE MCS/S DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  WILL NOT
INCREASE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO THE EXPECTED WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FLOW BUT CONFIDENCE MAY INCREASE IN LATER OUTLOOKS SUCH
THAT HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN
BE EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 06/03/2015



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