Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 220709
SPC AC 220708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


Scattered showers and storms are expected in the southern and
central High Plains, although any severe threat should be sparse.

A persistent western trough/eastern ridge pattern should remain in
place across the CONUS, although some slow eastward progress of the
trough axis will be noted as upper ridging builds into the Pacific
Northwest from the northeastern Pacific.  Sustained, meridionally
oriented mid/upper flow will remain across the High Plains and Upper
Mississippi River Valley.

At the surface, a weak low over western Kansas should remain nearly
stationary.  A front northeast of this low (into western Wisconsin)
should slowly migrate southward with time, while a weak lee trough
remains located in portions of the Texas South Plains and eastern
New Mexico.  Each of these surface boundaries will separate modified
tropical air (in the Plains) from drier, cooler air to the north and
west, while providing foci for an arc of storms that will extend
from portions of the Texas South Plains into western/central Kansas
and northward into southern Minnesota.

Mid-level lapse rates should be relatively modest along the extent
of this arc of convection, resulting in only weak to moderate
destabilization (strongest in the Texas South Plains).  This should
keep any threat of damaging wind gusts relatively sparse and below
Marginal/5% thresholds.

..Cook.. 09/22/2017

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