Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 230732
SWODY3
SPC AC 230730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN SRN ROCKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT E TO THE SRN SK/MB BORDER AREA BY EARLY SAT.
THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DAMPEN THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST RIDGE
EMANATING FROM A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NM. AT THE
SURFACE...A PAIR OF FRONTAL INTRUSIONS SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER THE
N-CNTRL CONUS. THE SRN ONE SHOULD BE LINKED TO A THERMAL LOW
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY FRI EVENING. THE NRN ONE SHOULD
WEAKEN OVER THE RED RIVER OF THE N...WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEYS...
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD YIELD AN ELEVATED MCS CENTERED INVOF THE
MS RIVER OVER ERN IA AT 12Z/FRI...ALONG THE FRINGE OF A STOUT PLAINS
EML. THIS WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP E THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...PRONOUNCED CAPPING SHOULD EXIST OVER
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE
POTENTIAL BUOYANCY. WHETHER SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN FORM
APPEARS QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST PROSPECT WOULD BE NEAR THE THERMAL
LOW WHERE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD WEAKER INHIBITION AND
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE MAY EXIST TO INITIATE A COUPLE OF STORMS LATE
DAY. IF THIS OCCURS WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
W/NWLYS...LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...NRN MN...
COOLER 700 MB TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER S SHOULD RESULT
IN MINIMAL INHIBITION AT PEAK HEATING. A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ANEMIC WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WANE. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE FRONT
RANGE FRI AFTERNOON. DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AMIDST A
TIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. FRI EVENING/NIGHT...LOW-LEVEL E/SELYS SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK CYCLOGENESIS. A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND WAA MAY
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/SD.
WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR.

..GRAMS.. 07/23/2014




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