Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 230523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED 30 NM MILES N OF THE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N69W...MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N68W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 67W-71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-26N BETWEEN 64W-73W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE
BAHAMAS...AND THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG OR NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES. INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD
MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 25N34W TO 10N34W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN
AIR AND DUST ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT N OF 21N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
AND CONTINUES TO 12N20W TO 9N40W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO
8N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 24W-
27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
30W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR
29N91W. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF N
OF 24N. 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF 24N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS W OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 83W-84W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM S OF 26N BETWEEN
90W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE SW
GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
CENTER OF THE LOW...10-15 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 89W-92W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-85W MAINLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA
NEAR 13N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF CUBA FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 80W-83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE
SPECIAL FEATURE LOW TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRESENTLY HAS THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION
OVER THE ISLAND. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT
THE AREA OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO MOVE W TO INCLUDE HAITI OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH MUDSLIDES AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH CENTER NEAR 33N24W WITH RIDGING TO NEAR 30N55W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE SPECIAL
FEATURE LOW TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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