Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 260603

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 10N26W
to 02N27W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is in a region of favorable wind shear, is in a moderate
moist environment with some patches of dry air according to CIRA
LPW and is under an area of diffluent flow aloft, which is
supporting scattered showers from 02N-10N E of 32W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from
14N40W to 01N45W, moving W at 5-10 kt within the last 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of favorable to neutral wind shear.
However, the CIRA LPW imagery show some dry air in the wave
environment, which coincide with Meteosat enhanced imagery of
Saharan dry air and dust. This is supporting lack of deep
convection at the moment.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from
18N65W to inland Venezuela near 08N66W, moving W at 20 kt within
the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable wind
shear N of 15N and is in a moderate moist environment with some
patches of dry air according to CIRA LPW. Upper level divergence
support in the SE basin support scattered showers S of 15N between
the Windward Islands and 68W. Isolated showers are elsewhere in
the NE Caribbean.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from
19N80W to the coast of Panama near 10N80W, moving west at 20
knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is in a region of
neutral to unfavorable wind shear and is in a moderate moist
environment with patches of dry air mainly N of 14N. Scattered
heavy showers and isolated tstms are in the SW Caribbean, but
mainly associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the Africa coast near 19N16W to
08N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis begins near
07N31W and continues to then resumes W of a tropical
wave near 07N44W to 03N51W. For convection information see the
tropical waves section. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are
from 04N to 03S between 35W and 40W and within 120 nm N of the
ITCZ W of 45W.



A broad middle to upper level trough over the eastern USA extends
S to a base over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thus supporting a
cold front extending across the SE CONUS to the Florida Panhandle
near 29N85W to 29N87W where it transitions to a stationary that
continues westward towards the coast of Texas near 29N94W. This
frontal boundary is supporting isolated showers and tstms along
the northern coastal waters of the Gulf. A middle level low over
the SW Gulf reflects as a surface trough along 26N92W to 18N93W,
which along with upper level diffluence continue to support heavy
showers and tstms over the W Gulf S of 27N, including the Bay of
Campeche where convection is stronger and with possible gusty
winds. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere.


The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already
discussed in the waves section above. Aside from the convective
activity associated with them, latest scatterometer data continue
to show fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the waves S of
17N, increasing to near gale winds S of 14N. Otherwise, scattered
heavy showers and tstms are in the lee of Cuba between 78W and
83W. Isolated showers are elsewhere between the Windward Passage
and the Leeward Islands. The westernmost wave will move over EPAC
waters within 24 hours while the easternmost wave races towards
the central basin. A new tropical wave will enter the SE Caribbean
waters Monday night.


Upper level southerly winds continue to advect moisture to
Hispaniola, thus supporting cloudiness with possible isolated
showers. Showers and tstms are expected to develop across the
Island Monday as a tropical wave moves to central Caribbean


Two tropical waves are crossing the tropical Atlantic waters.
Please refer to the tropical waves section for more details.
Otherwise, the remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered S of the Azores
near 34N29W.

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