Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 142337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING THEN
BRIEFLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 8N17W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM N OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 25W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM W CUBA
NEAR 22N83W TO 26N90W. DRY AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE E GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER E VIRGINIA GIVING THE NW GULF S
TO SE SURFACE RETURN FLOW WHICH COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 88W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH MON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF MON EVENING SWEEPING
ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH TUE THEN MOVE E OF AREA TUE NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. DRY
AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT
IN THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO W CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST
N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OVER HISPANIOLA. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
N OF SAINT LUCIA TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRONT
AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL PULSE TO GALE
FORCE TONIGHT AND BRIEFLY MON NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST N OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND. THE
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK GIVING THE
ISLAND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W ALONG 26N67W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 23N75W TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT BECOMES
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE W ATLC
W OF THE FRONT LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING IN OVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER E VIRGINIA. A REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N59W ALONG 25N65W TO JUST N OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE W ATLC COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY LATER TONIGHT AND MON AS THE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NW WATERS TUE. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT OVER NW WATERS TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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