Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary
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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242332
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 850 miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California Sur continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms.  Satellite data indicates that a
well-defined surface circulation does not yet exist.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to remain conducive for development while
the system moves slowly northward, and a tropical depression is
expected to form on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii
have become a little more organized this afternoon.  Any additional
development should be slow to occur for the next couple of days.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for further development of this disturbance by early next
week.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward during the
next couple of days and then turn northward as it approaches the
Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven/Zelinsky



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