Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KCAE 240548
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
148 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016
High pressure will be in control of the region through early next
week. A weak frontal boundary will approach from the north around
the middle of next week. Mostly dry weather and hot temperatures
for the remainder of the weekend will give way to scattered
showers and thunderstorms next week. Temperatures should remain
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Radar trends and latest high resolution models suggest little in
the way of convection for the rest of the evening. A few
convective debris clouds will linger into the late evening in the
southern FA. Drier air aloft will move in from the north
overnight. Current model runs and the radar wind profile suggests
a much weaker low level jet than previous runs. Less mixing and
drying aloft may indicate an increasing threat of patchy fog,
mainly in the counties along the NC/SC border. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 70s, with cooler temps in the north
where clearing skies and calm winds will allow for stronger
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mid/upper level ridge axis will continue to extend eastward
into the Carolinas through Sunday with an a center over
VA/Carolinas. This begins to weaken and slide off the coast by
Tuesday. Expect temperatures to climb another couple of degrees on
Sunday from this afternoon and remain in the 95 to 100 degrees
range through Monday. Expect temperatures to approach the century
mark at many locations. Heat index values will range from 104-108
degrees. This will be close to heat advisory criteria for Sunday
and Monday but will likely fall slightly short. Isolated diurnal
convection possible with moderate instability Sunday afternoon and
evening...although subsidence from the upper ridge may limit
convection. Looking as the high resolution models for
tomorrow...convection looks very limited during the
afternoon/early evening. Models indicate some along the coast/mts
with very little in between. Have kept pops in the slight chance
category...just around/over 15 percent.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Both GFS/ECMWF indicate the the eastward extent of the mid/upper
level ridge will begin to weaken and retrograde westward back over
the central plains/four corners region by mid/late week. A surface
front will also approach the region stalling out north of the
forecast area Tue. Another stronger s/w will try to push a front
slightly farther southward approaching the cwa by late week into
the weekend. Looks as though the initial front will remain north
of the area and gradually weaken. The second frontal boundary...if
we are lucky...could push into the cwa by Saturday/Sunday. At the
end of the long term period and confidence is not enough to raise
pops dramatically from the slight chance/low chance through much
of the upcoming week. Our forecast area will remain south of the
frontal boundary in the hotter air and PW values ranging from 1.5
to 2.0 inches...so cannot rule out isolated/widely scattered
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening across the CWA.
Temperatures through the period will remain above normal through
the end of next week with highs in the mid 90s to around 100
degrees and lows in the 70s.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected, outside of convection, through
the TAF period.
Some mid level cloudiness will continue into the early morning
hours in the southern half of the forecast area. A weaker LLJ than
models previously suggested and drying air aloft may allow for
periods of MVFR fog early Sunday morning. Winds should be light
and variable throughout the remainder of the night.
Isolated convection possible Sunday afternoon but not enough
confidence to mention in the TAFs at this time. SW winds Sunday
morning will become more southerly through the day. Winds may stay
up during the early evening, particularly at CAE, OGB and DNL,
with models showing a 25 kt LLJ over the area.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in restrictions
in afternoon and evening convection each day. Low potential for
early morning fog/stratus each morning...mainly at AGS/OGB.