Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KCAE 300008
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
808 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Tropical Depression Bonnie nearly stationary northwest of
Charleston this evening will move slowly northeast across
northeast South Carolina through Monday and into North Carolina
Tuesday. This will keep showers across the area for the next
couple of days.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Tropical Depression Bonnie nearly stationary to the northwest of
Charleston this evening. Radar at 23z indicates rain focused in
the low country where low level convergence maximized. Overall
radar trends suggests showers will diminish across the region this
evening and become more scattered. This is supported by the
latest HRRR high resolution NMM and RAP models. Overcast tonight
with diminishing winds. Overnight lows generally in the middle
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TD Bonnie is forecast to still be across northeastern portions of
South Carolina Monday before pushing northeastward and out of the
state Monday night into Tuesday. As long as the remnant center of
circulation remains close to the cwa, expect some sort of rain
chances for much of the area on Monday. Greatest chance will be
across the central and northeastern counties. At this time
though only forecasting high chance pops across the northeast
early, then increasing to likely during the afternoon. Further off
to the southwest, closer to the CSRA, pops will be lower, mainly
slight chance through the day. By Monday night the low will be
tracking further off to the northeast, and expect best rain
chances to push northeast along with the the low. Tuesday should
see more of a diurnal trend with any rainfall.
Expect temperatures to begin returning closer to normal on
Monday across the CSRA, but still remaining below normal across
the northeastern counties closer to the remnant circulation of TD
Bonnie. Overnight lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night close to
guidance and a little above climo. With more sunshine on Tuesday,
expect the entire CWA to return closer to normal.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Longer range models in general agreement with the upper pattern
through the end of the week. The upper trough that has been
associated with Bonnie will be lifting northeastward Wednesday,
bringing weak ridging into the region for Thursday and Friday.
Then for the Weekend, longwave trough will approach the region
from the upper mid-west, while a cutoff low develops over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Expect a diurnal precip trend of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end
of the week, then increasing rain chances for the weekend.
Have continued to stay close to previous forecast for
temperatures, with readings generally at or slightly above normal
through the period.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
With considerable low-level moisture in place...Expect MVFR/IFR
ceilings to develop overnight...
Tropical Depression Bonnie remains near the CHS area and is
expected to very slowly move north/northeast over the next 24
hours. The rain chance will diminish overnight but expect
stratus/strato-cu to develop across the region with widespread
MVFR after 03z. This is supported by the LAMP guidance. IFR
ceilings may develop toward morning...patchy fog possible although
some mixing in the boundary layer expected to continue. Winds
mainly north/or north northwest...gusty this evening to around 15
knots but should diminish after 03z.
Ceilings expected to rise during the morning with VFR by 18z.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible in the
afternoon but focus may shift to the northeast of Terminals.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day may result in restrictions at times.