Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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187 FXUS62 KCAE 251220 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 820 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift to our east today ahead of a front that will move into our region late tonight and Sunday. A series of systems will affect our region next week, providing a chance of showers, and possibly thunderstorms, at times. Above normal temperatures are expected through the period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Moisture will be on the increase through tonight associated with an onshore flow circulating around offshore high pressure and a weak cold front approaching from the west. A lingering mid- level cap combined with moisture remaining too shallow should limit the shower chance through the evening. Increased moisture and an eroding cap may lead to showers in the west section late tonight ahead of the upper trough. However, the GFS and NAM MOS plus most SREF members indicate showers will remain west of the region through tonight. Also, the ARW displays just isolated coverage in the west section toward morning. Followed the guidance consensus for the temperature forecast today. The higher temperature guidance may be better tonight because of mixing and cloudiness ahead of the weak front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An upper low will lift northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes region tonight and into Sunday while gradually weakening. This will promote increased moisture into the forecast area from the west tonight. Model precipitable water values will increase to around 1.2 inches by Sunday. Have continued to indicate highest pops west where dynamics are more favorable. Instability appears limited/weak but thunder possible Sunday afternoon/evening. High temperatures Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows in the middle 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains toward the Southeastern states Monday into Tuesday. Moisture will linger in the area Monday and Tuesday with a front near the region. Precipitable water values near 1.1 inches. Chance pops still appear okay. Weak upper ridging will build over the region Wednesday with a drier air mass over the area. Another upper trough over the center of the CONUS will shift east Thursday and Friday providing another chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms. Above normal temperatures are forecast throughout the long-term period with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Expect VFR conditions through the evening with MVFR conditions developing overnight. Moisture will be on the increase through tonight associated with an onshore flow circulating around offshore high pressure and a weak cold front approaching from the west. However, the initial low-level dryness and just weak isentropic lift support the MAV and NAM MOS plus SREF guidance mainly indicating continued VFR conditions through the evening. Increased moisture ahead of the weak front and greater isentropic lift plus nocturnal cooling supports restrictions developing toward 12z. The GFS and NAM MOS plus many SREF members indicate MVFR ceilings and visibilities developing. A lingering mid-level cap combined with moisture remaining too shallow should limit the shower chance through the evening. Increased moisture and an eroding cap may lead to showers in the west section late tonight ahead of the upper trough. However, the GFS and NAM MOS plus most SREF members indicate showers will remain west of the region through 12z. The chance was too low to include in the terminal forecasts at this time. Followed the NAM and GFS MOS for the wind forecast with mainly south wind near 10 knots today and southeast less than 10 knots tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture in a southerly flow and weak front just northwest of the region may help cause periods of MVFR or IFR conditions during the outlook period especially in the early morning hours associated with nocturnal cooling. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99

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