Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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572 FXUS62 KCAE 292333 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 733 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough of low pressure will move into the Upstate late this afternoon and overnight then stall and weaken across the area. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region through the weekend. High pressure over the western Atlantic will ridge into the southeastern states this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity developing along a surface boundary to our north, enhanced by weak upper impulse. Overall areal coverage limited some by limited atmospheric moisture, with dry air aloft seen on satellite water vapor imagery across the western Carolinas and N GA. The activity is drifting SE towards our northern FA. Radar trends and latest high resolution models suggest chance POPs in order for our northern FA, with slight chance into the central FA, through early tonight, with expectation that the activity will dissipate by late tonight. Latest mesoanalysis indicates generally weak to moderate instability. Some of the stronger storms this evening could possibly contain hail and strong wind gusts due to the dry air aloft. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A broad upper trough will remain over the Southeastern US for Thursday. A stationary frontal boundary is expected to be near the Upstate and western portion of the forecast area with a lee trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in a moderately unstable air mass. 0-6 km shear values are near 20-25 knots. Peak precipitable water values are around 1.8 to 2 inches. Most of the area remains in a marginal risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center with damaging winds as the main threat. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term features a typical summertime pattern with diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each day. The focus for showers and storms will be along a stalled boundary that will be near the northern portion of the forecast area. Upper forcing will be lacking so expect that the severe threat will be low. Temperatures are generally forecast a couple of degrees above normal with highs in the lower to middle 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions expected this evening and into the early portions of tonight. Expecting convection to remain west and north of the Midlands and CSRA, and have left out any mention of shra/tsra in the tafs. After Midnight there will be an increasing potential for patchy fog at AGS/OGB/DNL. Model time sections indicate some low level moisture with the southerly low-level flow. Have included a period of mvfr fog at AGS/DNL/OGB with VFR conditions returning by 14z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnal convection each afternoon through the period along with late night patchy fog. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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