Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 300008 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 808 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical Depression Bonnie nearly stationary northwest of Charleston this evening will move slowly northeast across northeast South Carolina through Monday and into North Carolina Tuesday. This will keep showers across the area for the next couple of days. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Tropical Depression Bonnie nearly stationary to the northwest of Charleston this evening. Radar at 23z indicates rain focused in the low country where low level convergence maximized. Overall radar trends suggests showers will diminish across the region this evening and become more scattered. This is supported by the latest HRRR high resolution NMM and RAP models. Overcast tonight with diminishing winds. Overnight lows generally in the middle 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TD Bonnie is forecast to still be across northeastern portions of South Carolina Monday before pushing northeastward and out of the state Monday night into Tuesday. As long as the remnant center of circulation remains close to the cwa, expect some sort of rain chances for much of the area on Monday. Greatest chance will be across the central and northeastern counties. At this time though only forecasting high chance pops across the northeast early, then increasing to likely during the afternoon. Further off to the southwest, closer to the CSRA, pops will be lower, mainly slight chance through the day. By Monday night the low will be tracking further off to the northeast, and expect best rain chances to push northeast along with the the low. Tuesday should see more of a diurnal trend with any rainfall. Expect temperatures to begin returning closer to normal on Monday across the CSRA, but still remaining below normal across the northeastern counties closer to the remnant circulation of TD Bonnie. Overnight lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night close to guidance and a little above climo. With more sunshine on Tuesday, expect the entire CWA to return closer to normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Longer range models in general agreement with the upper pattern through the end of the week. The upper trough that has been associated with Bonnie will be lifting northeastward Wednesday, bringing weak ridging into the region for Thursday and Friday. Then for the Weekend, longwave trough will approach the region from the upper mid-west, while a cutoff low develops over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Expect a diurnal precip trend of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week, then increasing rain chances for the weekend. Have continued to stay close to previous forecast for temperatures, with readings generally at or slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With considerable low-level moisture in place...Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop overnight... Tropical Depression Bonnie remains near the CHS area and is expected to very slowly move north/northeast over the next 24 hours. The rain chance will diminish overnight but expect stratus/strato-cu to develop across the region with widespread MVFR after 03z. This is supported by the LAMP guidance. IFR ceilings may develop toward morning...patchy fog possible although some mixing in the boundary layer expected to continue. Winds mainly north/or north northwest...gusty this evening to around 15 knots but should diminish after 03z. Ceilings expected to rise during the morning with VFR by 18z. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible in the afternoon but focus may shift to the northeast of Terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day may result in restrictions at times. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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