Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 240625 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 125 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Near record temperatures will continue into this weekend. High pressure centered off the coast will bring warm and moist air into region through Saturday. A cold front will cross the area Sunday into Monday bringing a high chance of showers. Temperatures will remain above normal next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Clouds diminish early tonight with the loss of heating. However with the abundant low-level moisture still across the area, expect that portions of the cwa will see the redevelopment of low stratus and some patchy fog late. A 20 knot low-level jet is being shown by Bufkit to develop by Midnight across the area, and this suggests that widespread low stratus should be more likely than widespread fog. Overnight lows remaining quite mild for this time of the year, with readings down around 60 expected by morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday...An upper ridge off the Southeast Coast will weaken on Saturday. Surface high pressure will remain centered offshore. Low pressure over the Southern Plains will move into the Middle Mississippi Valley region. The associated cold front will move into the Tennessee Valley region late Saturday night. Moisture will deepen from the west on Saturday bringing just a slight chance of showers to the western portion of the forecast area. The HRRR and RAP do not show much activity in the area Saturday afternoon which appears reasonable given little forcing and a cap. Trimmed back pops a bit. Temperatures on Saturday will be above normal once again. Highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. Sunday...Low pressure will move from the Northern Great Lakes region into Quebec on Sunday which will allow the cold front to cross the Appalachians and move into the western portion of the forecast area. Moisture will continue to deepen on Sunday with the chance of rain increasing. The NAM is still slower with the system than the GFS so there remains some uncertainty with the timing of the rainfall. Continued with likely pops west on Sunday closer to the frontal boundary and deeper moisture and chance pops further east. Instability appears quite limited with LI values near 0, but cannot rule out thunder. Believe the better chance of rain will occur Saturday night so have continued with likely pops across the area. The pressure gradient will tighten on Sunday ahead of the front with breezy conditions expected. Southwesterly winds around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are expected. A lake wind advisory may need to be considered. Temperatures on Sunday will be above normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front will continue to gradually progress through the area on Monday supporting likely pops. The GFS continues to push the moisture off the coast a bit more quickly than the NAM and GFS, but expect most of the rainfall to be out of the area by late Monday afternoon and evening. Surface high pressure will move northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday with dry weather and mostly sunny skies expected across the forecast area. High pressure will shift off the coast Tuesday night with moisture and the chance of rain returning to the area for Wednesday. Low pressure over the Great Lakes region on Thursday will bring the next cold front into the area for the end of the work week with unsettled weather continuing. Temperatures through the period will continue to be above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restrictions developing over the next couple of hours and continuing through the mid morning hours...then returning to VFR. High pressure offshore of the Carolinas will keep southerly flow over the region today with the main concern being the potential for early morning fog and stratus. Satellite imagery and surface obs indicate fog and stratus developing closer to the coast which will move into the terminals over the next couple of hours. Expect conditions to lower to IFR or LIFR during the early morning hours then return to VFR by late morning as the fog and stratus erode. Cumulus will again form during the afternoon hours as a disturbance moves just west of the area. Chance of rain remains too low to include in TAFs attm. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in late night and early morning fog and stratus Sunday morning. Increasing confidence in restrictions Sunday evening through Monday and again Wednesday as frontal systems cross the region. && .CLIMATE... CAE has tied the record of 82 set in 1962. AGS only reached 81 degrees today, thus not reaching its record of 82 set in 2012. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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