Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 231129 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 629 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A series of low pressure systems will track from the Gulf of Mexico NE across Florida and offshore the Carolinas late Thursday through Friday night, providing variable cloudiness along with a slight chance of light rain, mainly in southern and eastern areas. A dry cold front will cross the region Saturday night, with high pressure building into the region for Sunday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mean upper trough axis continues to stretch from the Great Lakes region south into the Gulf of Mexico. Upper disturbance interacting with an old frontal boundary producing a surface low currently over the E Gulf of Mexico. The low is progged to shift to the NE across N FL and offshore the SC coast through tonight. Radar mosaic currently indicates associated areas of precipitation across that region with light rain pushing north into S GA. Models continue to keep the bulk of the moisture/precipitation associated with this system south of our forecast area (FA). Latest high resolution models bring the northern edge of the light rain area to our southern doorstep later this morning. It appears that drier low level air working into the FA, as high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic, will limit the northward progress of the significant precipitation. Continued to blend ongoing forecast with latest model consensus which confines slight chance POPs to our southern/eastern FA. Weak cool air advection and better cloud cover expected to keep max temps today below yesterday`s values. Happy Thanksgiving. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper level trough will shift eastward Friday. The next in a series of low pressure areas will shift to the NE from the E GOMEX/FL vicinity and remain offshore the Carolinas. Considerable uncertainty for Fri/Fri nt with some question as to how far north the associated moisture will extend. Most operational runs keeping the precip south of our FA, while some ensemble guidance indicating some potential for light rain pushing north into our southern/eastern FA. For now, will maintain slight chance POPs for that area due to uncertainty. Any precip amounts would be light. Fair with near to above normal temps expected Saturday. Next upper trough to dig into the E CONUS Saturday, with main upper trough axis and a surface front coming through our region Saturday night with little impact other than some cloudiness possible as moisture appears limited in a NW flow aloft.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cooler and drier air to settle into our region behind the front, as high pressure settles into our region Sunday through Tuesday, providing fair and seasonably cool conditions. A couple of frosty mornings possible Mon/Tue. Models differences in play with the handling of the next systems that may affect our region mid to late next week. Model consensus provides slight chance POPs late in the forecast period, but considerable uncertainty exists. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Expect VFR conditions during the 24-hour TAF period. A dry airmass continues to build into the region from the north with dewpoints falling into the 30s. The front that moved through the region Wednesday has stalled near the coast. An elongated upper trough will slowly move towards the area today as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico and lifts northeastward along the frontal boundary. Model time heights show some moisture in the layer around 4kft-5kft which may result in periods of SCT-BKN clouds mainly at the southern terminals AGS/DNL/OGB. Winds will be from the northeast through the day around 5 to 8 knots before winds become light to calm after sunset. The dry airmass should preclude fog development. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A frontal zone near the coast with a series of low pressure centers moving northeastward may help support MVFR or IFR conditions at times Friday but confidence is low at this time.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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