Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCAE 240548 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 148 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control of the region through early next week. A weak frontal boundary will approach from the north around the middle of next week. Mostly dry weather and hot temperatures for the remainder of the weekend will give way to scattered showers and thunderstorms next week. Temperatures should remain above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Radar trends and latest high resolution models suggest little in the way of convection for the rest of the evening. A few convective debris clouds will linger into the late evening in the southern FA. Drier air aloft will move in from the north overnight. Current model runs and the radar wind profile suggests a much weaker low level jet than previous runs. Less mixing and drying aloft may indicate an increasing threat of patchy fog, mainly in the counties along the NC/SC border. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s, with cooler temps in the north where clearing skies and calm winds will allow for stronger radiational cooling. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The mid/upper level ridge axis will continue to extend eastward into the Carolinas through Sunday with an a center over VA/Carolinas. This begins to weaken and slide off the coast by Tuesday. Expect temperatures to climb another couple of degrees on Sunday from this afternoon and remain in the 95 to 100 degrees range through Monday. Expect temperatures to approach the century mark at many locations. Heat index values will range from 104-108 degrees. This will be close to heat advisory criteria for Sunday and Monday but will likely fall slightly short. Isolated diurnal convection possible with moderate instability Sunday afternoon and evening...although subsidence from the upper ridge may limit convection. Looking as the high resolution models for tomorrow...convection looks very limited during the afternoon/early evening. Models indicate some along the coast/mts with very little in between. Have kept pops in the slight chance category...just around/over 15 percent. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Both GFS/ECMWF indicate the the eastward extent of the mid/upper level ridge will begin to weaken and retrograde westward back over the central plains/four corners region by mid/late week. A surface front will also approach the region stalling out north of the forecast area Tue. Another stronger s/w will try to push a front slightly farther southward approaching the cwa by late week into the weekend. Looks as though the initial front will remain north of the area and gradually weaken. The second frontal boundary...if we are lucky...could push into the cwa by Saturday/Sunday. At the end of the long term period and confidence is not enough to raise pops dramatically from the slight chance/low chance through much of the upcoming week. Our forecast area will remain south of the frontal boundary in the hotter air and PW values ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches...so cannot rule out isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms each afternoon/evening across the CWA. Temperatures through the period will remain above normal through the end of next week with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees and lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected, outside of convection, through the TAF period. Some mid level cloudiness will continue into the early morning hours in the southern half of the forecast area. A weaker LLJ than models previously suggested and drying air aloft may allow for periods of MVFR fog early Sunday morning. Winds should be light and variable throughout the remainder of the night. Isolated convection possible Sunday afternoon but not enough confidence to mention in the TAFs at this time. SW winds Sunday morning will become more southerly through the day. Winds may stay up during the early evening, particularly at CAE, OGB and DNL, with models showing a 25 kt LLJ over the area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in restrictions in afternoon and evening convection each day. Low potential for early morning fog/stratus each morning...mainly at AGS/OGB. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$

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