-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
506
FXUS62 KCAE 121041
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
641 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps the area dry through the weekend and into
the beginning of next week. The high then moves offshore Monday
and increasing moisture supports an unsettled week with chances
for showers and thunderstorms for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak frontal boundary shifting southeastward through the
forecast area this morning and will push off the coast by this
afternoon. A relatively dry air mass is expected today with
PWATs around 0.6-0.7 inches and dewpoints mixing back down into
the 40s. Other than some passing cirrus clouds and a few cumulus
during peak heating skies should be mostly clear and with a weak
downsloping northwesterly flow, expect high temperatures to be
warmer than Saturday with highs in the lower 80s.
High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas
tonight should yield favorable radiational cooling conditions
but increasing clouds in the form of high and mid level clouds
through the night ahead of the next upper trough to our west
will prevent ideal radiational cooling. Overnight lows expected
to be a bit warmer in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging is expected to be over the area on Monday,
However, an upper trough located over the Central Plains Monday
morning is forecast to propagate eastward through the short
term period into the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile, the surface
high is expected to move offshore, allowing winds to become more
southerly. As a result, increased moisture is expected to be
advected into the region, with PWATs likely to be above 1.5" by
Monday night. A series of shortwaves are expected to move
through the larger scale flow, bringing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms beginning Monday over the CSRA. This activity
is forecast to spread northeastward through the forecast
region, resulting in very high confidence (80-90%) we`ll see
rain on Tuesday. Forecast soundings do indicate the ingredients
for severe weather are possible. The shear profiles support
organized convection. However, ensemble probabilities of >1000
J/kg are somewhat lacking over our forecast area. The better
probabilities (as of now) remain to our south along the Gulf
Coast. Models also indicate an MCS could move along the Gulf
Coast, which would prevent instability from reach this far
north. Because of this, there remains uncertainty in how much
rain we do end up with on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As the upper trough treks eastward through the region, shower
and thunderstorm chances continue on Wednesday. A dry slot could
potentially develop and work its way into the area Wednesday,
which would reduce our chances for rainfall, or at least how
much rain falls through the day. This system moves out of the
region, leaving dry conditions for Thursday as an upper ridge is
forecast to move into the region. Beyond that, there is moderate
confidence (~50%) that another upper trough moves toward the
area at the end of the week, bringing more chances of
precipitation to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Weak front will push southeast through the area this morning as
high pressure builds over the area through tonight. Near calm
winds will pick up from the northwest by mid morning and be
around 5 to 8 knots through the afternoon before going light
and variable to calm tonight. Mostly clear skies expected
this morning with some increasing higher and mid clouds by this
afternoon and overnight. Fog/stratus not a concern given dry
air mass.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible late Monday through
Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$