Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 232346 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 746 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build east from the Great Lakes region tonight into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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745 PM Update... Adjusted the hrly temps/dewpoints to fit w/the latest conditions. Surface analysis showed high pres ridging across the region from the Ohio Valley while a trof of low pres is situated over Quebec. Satl imagery showed some clouds moving e from Quebec aligning w/the cold front. The latest RAP and NAM12 bring some of this cloudiness into western and northern areas overnight. The daycrew`s assessment has this handled well bringing these clouds in overnight. Winds look like they will stay up some overnight(above 5 mph) alleviating any threat for fog. See marine section below. Previous Discussion... A broad ridge of high pressure over northwestern Ontario will dominate area weather tonight into Thursday. Cooler and much less humid air arrives this evening and will continue filtering into the area overnight. Tonight`s lows will be some 15 to 20 degrees less than last night for many locations in the forecast area. With decreasing H850 temperatures tonight into Thursday, highs on Thursday will be around 5 degrees cooler than today with low humidity for the entire area. Winds will tend to be less gusty, but H850 moisture should remain plentiful for the entire area in a northwesterly flow. As a result, will specify partly sunny conditions by afternoon for all zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure will gradually build toward the region Thursday night through Saturday. An upper level trof will approach Thursday night, then remain across the region Friday through Saturday while several disturbances move through the trof. Expect diurnal cloud development both Friday and Saturday, most extensive across the north and mountains where isolated afternoon showers are also possible. With the loss of diurnal heating, showers end during the evenings along with decreasing clouds. Temperatures will be at slightly below normal levels Friday/Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A trough of lower pressure will be over southern Maine and higher pressure will be building into northern Maine, at the start of the period. By Sunday morning the trough will move to the coastal waters. A low pressure system will track east along the trough Sunday into Monday. The ridge will continue to build over the region and will remain over the area until early Thursday morning. A low tracking across central Quebec with a cold front trailing southwest into the eastern Great Lakes region early Thursday morning will move into northwestern Maine by the end of the period Thursday morning. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions will be VFR with excellent vis through the period. There is a chance of brief MVFR cigs at FVE Thursday morning. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region Thursday night through Monday. Could have a slight chance of afternoon showers across the north and mountains Friday/Saturday. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: 745 PM Update...Cancelled SCA for Hazardous Seas as waves have dropped below 6 ft w/winds around 10 kts. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels Thursday night through Saturday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hewitt/MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Norcross Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Norcross

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