Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 020018 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 818 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 8 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TSTMS DISSIPATED LEAVING ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHWR ACTIVITY MSLY ACROSS WRN AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA. TSTMS WERE ELIMINATED FROM THE FCST GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVE AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS CVRG. OTHERWISE HRLY FCST CLD CVR AND TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT AND SFC OBS. FCST OVRNGT LOWS REMAINED UNCHGD ATTM. ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WRN MAINE BY MID DAY TOMORROW. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEM...AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE WEATHER TROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ALL ARE PLACING A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THIS IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRACKED THROUGH MAINE TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER ERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD INTO NRN MAINE BEHIND THE LOW. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET...PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST...PARTLY SUNNY CENTRAL AND NORTH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH AND MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL BE INTO WRN MAINE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM FOR HRLY TEMP/MAX/MIN/WND/SKY/POP ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DEPICT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS SO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTH WHERE THE FORCING IS THE STRONGEST. GENERALLY EXPECT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE FAIRLY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREA QUICKLY COME TO AN END WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A LOW PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM SW FLOW WITH HIGHS FRIDAY JUMPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A LATE DAY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION. FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN CLEARING VS. STALLING OUT WITH A NEW WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS LATTER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. UTILIZING OUR LONG RANGE MODEL BLEND PROCEDURES, WE KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY DRY BUT COOLER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR...BHB THIS AFTERNOON...BCMG LMVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AT BGR. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR BY MORNING IN FOG. LMVFR CONDITIONS FOR HUL...PQI...CAR...AND FVE WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TSTM MOST LIKELY BTWN BGR AND HUL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO LIFR IN FOG FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. LMVFR MID MORNING...MVFR TO VFR LATE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE INTO FVE...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LMVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. SHORT TERM: SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS/VIS WITH THE POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WNDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...VJN/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...VJN/FITZSIMMONS

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