Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221058 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 558 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6AM UPDATE... NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ANOTHER DAY UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH IS STARTING TO ORGANIZE JUST WEST OF THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE OTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGE TODAY WILL BE THAT THE HIGH WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS MEANS THAT A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ADVECT ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY SPREAD TO FAR NORTHERN PENOBSCOT LATER IN THE NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS SHOULD BE UNDER A HALF INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT UNDER THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND STAGNANT CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. MODELS SEEMS TO DIFFER ON HOW COLD THE SURFACE AIR WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST WHICH HOLDS COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTH AND WOULD ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE WAVE NEAR THE COAST ALLOWING WARM AIR TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD GIVE PREDOMINANTLY PLAIN RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR REMAINING NEAR THE SURFACE IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION, IT APPEARS AT LEAST A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR PUSHES NORTH OVER THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR WEST WILL BRING RAIN AND FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH WIND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS PREVIOUS MODELS WITH THE STORM TRACKING TO OUR WEST A LITTLE WEAKER, AND SOME SECONDARY REFLECTIONS OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST MODIFYING THE GRADIENT A BIT. HOWEVER, IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONSOLIDATES TO OUR NORTH. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY MAY THEN BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH, BEFORE USHERING IN A COLDER AIR MASS LATER SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CIGS FROM HUL NORTHWARD. CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP JUST BELOW 1000FT. TOWARDS BGR AND BHB...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MVFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING FOR BGR. SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN LOW CLOUDS, AND SOME RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTH, AND FOG TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND MVFR OVER THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET BRINGING STRONG SOUTH WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: A GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, POSSIBLY UP TO 12- 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO A LONG FETCH. FOG WILL LIKELY LIMIT VISIBILITIES AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... WARMER SCENARIO EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE(WEDNESDAY) INTO CHRISTMAS DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL W/LOW PRES FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR WEST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MAINE INCLUDING THE PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX BASINS W/1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, RAINFALL OF 1+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW, HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL RUNOFF AND RISES ON THE RIVERS. ANY ICE WILL LIKELY MELT/BREAKUP AND MOVE. THE ICE JAM ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER IS A CONCERN AS IT COULD BREAK UP AND MOVE W/THE ABOVE SCENARIO EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CONCERN OVER RELATIVELY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE (PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE) HIGH TIDE AT BAR HARBOR WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z (11.76 FT MLLW)... 25TH/1800Z (12.73 FT MLLW) AND 26/0624Z (11.80 FT). LATEST WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FETCH... ON 24TH TO 25... EXTENDING FROM COAST TO 600 NM TO SOUTH. LATEST WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 15 FEET AND PERIODS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 SECONDS DURING THESE HIGH TIDES. WAVE HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIODS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR OVERTOPPING ISSUES. ALSO WILL STRONG ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AND ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SOME FLOODING ISSUES STILL POSSIBLE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER HYDROLOGY...HEWITT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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