Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280043 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 743 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPDATE... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. LIGHT WINDS AND THE SNOWPACK COULD HELP RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY TONIGHT IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES COULD THEN STABILIZE OR BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER PORTION OF THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL OFF-SHORE BASED ON THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECWMF FOR POPS...CLOUDS AND QPF. HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRANSITION TO COLDER AIR MASS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO WRN ME. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF ME...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...INTO WRN PA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. SAT MRNG THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD ACROSS THE STATE. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. BY SAT EVNG...THE LOW MOVES INTO SRN CANADA NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR....THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO ERN NY. EARLY SUN MRNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES BAY...EXTEND THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER MOVES THE WARM FRONT TO NH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST....WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6HRS TO 12 HRS BEHIND THE GFS. LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST FOR HRLY TEMP/DP...WND/POP/SKY. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. USED HPCGRIDS FOR QPF...ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THE LAST 12HRS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER ARE ABOUT 9 HRS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO. THE GFS SHOWS A WRM FRONT ACROSS ERN ME...ECMWF WRN ME...MID DAY THE GFS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...ME INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE ECMWF WARM FRONT TO ERN ME. BY EARLY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NW ME. THE ECMWF THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW ME BY MID DAY MON. BY MON EVNG THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE SRN GULF OF ME...THE ECMWF BY TUE MRNG. BOTH BUILD HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOW A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC THAT WILL CROSS NRN ME EARLY TUE MRNG...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED MRNG. BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. WED MNRG THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO WRN ME...FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE ECMWF. INTO SRN MAINE...FROM AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...BRINGING THE TRIPLE POINT INTO WRN MAINE WED MRNG. THE GFS MOVES ITS FRONT THROUGH BY WED EVNG...THE ECMWF MID DAY THURS. THE GFS KEEPS US UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT PERIODS END. THE ECWMF MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE SRN GULF OF MAINE...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MAINE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CEILINGS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. SHORT TERM: A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACROSS NRN ME AT THE START OF THE PERIOD REDUCING THE PREVAILING MVFR VSBY AND CEILINGS TO IFR AFFECTING FVE...CAR...PQI THROUGH THE EARLY EVNG HRS. MVFR BECMG IFR CONDITIONS SUN MRNG AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IMPROVING TO MVFR ALL SITES SUN AFTERNOON...TO VFR BGR AND BHB BY END OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...WHICH MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON

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