Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 180455 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1155 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region this evening and move east later tonight. A weak area of low pressure will cross the region Monday. Another low will cross northern areas later Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1150 pm update... High clouds are starting to stream into the region at this time. There is a wide variation in temperatures at this hour, as valley locations have fallen well below zero. With high clouds starting to arrive temperatures may not fall as low as previously forecast in some locations so have tweaked temperatures just a bit. Will also slow the arrival of the snow down just a bit on Monday based on latest model guidance showing a slower onset to the arrival of snow. Prev discussion blo... High pressure, decreasing winds, clear skies and an Arctic air mass will equate to plummeting temperatures this evening through later tonight. Temperatures will level out when a cirrus shield arrives in conjunction with a shortwave upper ridge axis after midnight. Before that cirrus arrives, some of the normally colder locations in northern zones could drop towards minus 15-20F. Most of the area will drop below zero except along the coast. The cirrus will likely arrive in the southwestern portions of the area first and then spread towards the northeast before daybreak. Have entered lows around 4am rather than the usual 7-8am timeframe for this time of year. Areas such as Bangor and Ellsworth may have tonight`s lows even earlier. The current expected low at Houlton will be close to a record low for the date...which is minus 16F. For Monday, a weak shortwave will arrive from the Great Lakes region and a weak surface low will be induced near the coast where a decent thermal gradient will exist. Light snow will develop during the morning in the southwestern portions of the forecast area and spread eastward through the afternoon. Around an inch of snow could fall towards coastal Hancock and Washington counties by Monday evening. Amounts will taper off inland...and no measurable snow is expected north of a line from the Moosehead Lake region towards Millinocket and Danforth. However, it will be cloudy across the forecast area on Monday. Temperatures will moderate slightly with highs a few degrees higher than today and winds will be light.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak low pressure will exit across the maritimes early Monday night. Could still have a chance of light snow Downeast early Monday night. Otherwise, generally expect mostly cloudy skies Monday night. Intensifying surface low pressure along with an upper level disturbance will approach northern Maine later Tuesday, then cross the region Tuesday night. Light snow will develop across northern areas Tuesday, then persist early Tuesday night before tapering to snow showers overnight. Several inches of snow are expected across northern areas Tuesday into early Tuesday night. Lesser snow chances will exist southward across the remainder of the forecast area. The snow could mix with rain toward the Downeast coast Tuesday afternoon. The low will lift toward Labrador Wednesday drawing a cold front across the forecast area. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across the north and mountains Wednesday, with partly cloudy skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at near normal levels Tuesday/Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will build toward the region Wednesday night, then cross the forecast area Thursday. High pressure then exits to the east early Friday while low pressure across the Great Lakes begins to draw a warm front north. Expect increasing clouds Friday with light overrunning snow starting to develop during the afternoon. The low will track toward Quebec province Friday night while the warm front lifts north across the region. Temperatures will warm Friday night. Snow will transition to a wintry mix then eventually begin to mix with rain across Downeast areas Friday night. Precipitation will generally remain in the form of snow across the remainder of the region Friday night, though a wintry mix could begin to develop across central areas late. The low will track northwest of the region Saturday which will eventually draw the warm front north of the region. However, how rapidly the low level cold air is eroded Saturday remains uncertain. Thus, expect snow to transition to a wintry mix then eventually rain. Precipitation amounts and exact types Saturday remain uncertain. The precipitation will then taper to snow showers Saturday night. High pressure will cross the region early Sunday. Cloud cover will increase later Sunday with a chance of snow showers late. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Thursday/Friday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Saturday, with near normal level temperatures Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR thru next 24 hours at northern terminals. HUL may see MVFR cigs after 21z Mon as low clouds move in from the south. IFR snow at southern terminals after 18z thru end of TAF valid time. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions are possible early Monday night Downeast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected Monday night. Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels across northern areas Tuesday, with VFR/MVFR conditions Downeast. Occasional MVFR conditions will occur across the north and mountains Wednesday, with VFR conditions Downeast. VFR conditions are expected across the region Thursday through early Friday. Conditions will then lower to IFR/LIFR levels later Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected on the water through Monday except light snow...which will be in the late morning into the afternoon. SHORT TERM: Conditions will be below small craft advisory levels Monday night through early Tuesday. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected later Tuesday through Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in snow early Monday night. Could have a slight chance of rain Tuesday afternoon. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Duda/Norcross Marine...Duda/Norcross is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.