Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191326 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 926 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 0925 EDT: HAVE ADJUSTED SKY BASED ON SATELLITE. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND WIND BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. HIPRES WL BUILD IN TDA WITH CLRNG SKIES THIS MRNG. SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTN POSSIBLY YIELDING HIGHS WRMR THAN GUIDANCE. HV BUMPED MAXES UP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCALES TDA WITH M50S EXPECTED OVR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NW FLOW RMNS ACRS CWA AND UNDER FULL MIXING EXPECT WINDS TO GUST UPWARDS OF 15KTS DRG PEAK HTG. UPR LVL RIDGE CRESTS OVR AREA BY 12Z MONDAY AS SFC WINDS VEER TO MORE OF A SERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK. THIS WL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE U30S ALONG THE COAST WITH L/M20S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AS RADN`L COOLING WL BE MAXIMIZED. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS A LARGE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. RAIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT MAY MIX WITH A BIT OF WET SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG AN OCCLUDED TRIPLE POINT OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST SHOULD BRING A STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ON TUESDAY. RAIN SHOULD END DOWNEAST LATE TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR CIRCULATES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE TROUGH WILL THEN REDEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSER, SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH 850-700 THICKNESSES INDICATING TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, 1000-850 THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. SOME WET SNOW MAY MIX IN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE, WITH THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST, TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER BREAK AS THIS BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL THEN LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER BREAK MAY SOME SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DRIER AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF AN HR OR TWO OF MVFR CIGS AT FVE AND BHB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BCM LGT/VRB TOWARD 00Z. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO IFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH IS UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR STRONG EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNING FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS AN ICE JAM RESULTS IN MINOR FLOODING. RIVER LEVELS ARE HOLDING STEADY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS JUST BELOW MODERATE STAGE. A SMALL JAM REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF FORT FAIRFIELD WITH RIVERSIDE AVENUE REMAINING CLOSED. THE ICE JAM AT THE ST FRANCIS/ALLAGASH TOWN LINE RELEASED OVERNIGHT WITH FLOOD WATERS RECEDING AND ROUTE 161 REOPENED. CONCERN SHIFTS TO DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS ON THE ST JOHN RIVER WITH POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ICE JAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BUT RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION. OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND THIS MAY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE HIGH TIDE AT 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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