Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 280155 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 955 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOLER DRIER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 955 PM UPDATE... LINE OF SHOWERS CONTS TO HANG ON ACRS CNTR PORTION OF CWA THO IT IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. EXPECT SHOWERS WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFT 06Z WHEN WV MVS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. NO MAJOR CHGS NEEDED TO GRIDS AT THIS TIME. 8PM UPDATE... LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BISECT CWA THIS EVNG THO STORMS HV WEAKENED AS VRY LITTLE INSTABILITY RMNS. AS EXPECTED, STORMS PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS IN SOME LOCALES AND LOCALLY HVY RAIN THO NO REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING WERE RECEIVED. UPDATED GRIDS TO MV LINE THRU AN HR OR TWO QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. ACTIVITY WL MV INTO NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE NEXT SVRL HRS AS S/WV MVS OFF INTO CANADA BY 06Z. HV RETAINED SCTD SHOWERS THRU THIS TIME. FOR THE OVRNGT, CWA WL RMN IN SOUPY AIRMASS WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN IN THE 60S AND HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATING THRU THE DAY TOMORROW AHD OF OUR NEXT ROUND OF SVR WX. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS TERM WILL BE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE. THIS COINCIDES W/A DECENT THETA E RIDGE IN PLACE. ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING AS LIS DOWN TO -2 IN WNW AREAS AND EXPANDING E AS HEATING CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE HRS. LINE OF CONVECTION IN QUEBEC FIRED UP W/PLENTY OF LIGHTNING. HRRR 3KM AND THE NAM12 PICKED UP ON THIS LINE BUT A BIT OVERDONE W/THE PROJECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER AS EVIDENT FROM THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. THE HRRR AND NAM TO PROJECT A LINE OF CONVECTION W/POSSIBLY BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING CHALLENGE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE 1)TIMING AND 2)850-500 MB LAPSE RATES PRETTY MEAGER(6.0 C/KM). SOME STORM COULD HAVE ROTATION AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL VEERING THROUGH 7K FT. STORMS DEFINITELY HAVE LLVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE W/0-3KM LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6.8 C/KM AND SB CAPES OF 1400+ JOULES. THEY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE DEVIATE FROM THE ENE MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD POINT TO POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER MOVING E. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. NEEDED TO PULL BACK ON TIMING FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 01Z AS THE PRE- FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WE LOSE THE HEATING AND BEST FORCING. ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT THE DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COAST. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS UP INTO THE 60S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CWA W/THE EXCEPTION FOR THE COAST AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE DOWN IN THE 50S. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK MEANING SOME ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN CONJUNCTIONW/THE UPPER TROF ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE ACTIVE DAY AS SB/MUCAPES ARE FORECAST TO HIT 1500+ JOULES IN THE AFTERNOON W/EVEN HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 11K FT. 0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION W/VALUES 6.2-6.5 C/KM. LINE SEGMENTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN MODE. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AS AN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN AREAS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH A WARM AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND AND A WARM AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS LINED UP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, SOME POSSIBLY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS, WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SUNNY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MAY COME ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THE HIGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: LINE OF -SHRA/-TSRA EARLY IN TAF PERIOD FOR HUL WITH NORTHERN TERMINALS AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS MISSING OUT ON THE PRECIPITATION. MVFR EXPECTED TO SET IN AFTER 00Z AT FVE AND CAR PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH 08Z. BHB WILL START OFF WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z. BGR WILL LIKELY BE VFR BEFORE BEING REDUCED TO IFR AFTER 05Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY -TSRA LATE IN TAF VALID TIME. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN MVFR THURSDAY EVENING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA STAYS UP THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING BELOW SCA ATTM W/10 KTS AND SEAS 3-4 FT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 5-6 FT. FOG WILL BE A NUISANCE FOR NAVIGATION AS IT IS OUT ON THE WATERS ATTM. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HEWITT SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER MARINE...FARRAR/HEWITT/BLOOMER

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