Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 312237 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 637 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN...SNOW AND WIND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 637 PM UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THIS EVE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY 12Z SAT. DUAL SFC LOWS TO DEVELOP OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND NEAR THE GRAND STRAND SAT MORNING. CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... QUIET TONIGHT AND THEN THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE BY SATURDAY. FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRES WILL GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. AS A MATTER OF FACT A WEAK MESO LOW HAD DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON JUST OFF THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THAT REGION. TONIGHT`S TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL GOING TOO COLD. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND WILL OFFSET AND SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. STAYED CLOSE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID/UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST. FOR SATURDAY, THE FIRST WAVE LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE DOWNEAST REGION FROM THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE INTO THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS BY LATER MORNING AND THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS WARMER AIR IN THE LLVLS WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND BLYR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 32F. THIS IS FORECAST TO CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES HOLD AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO COOLDOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO MIX AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO WET SNOW BY THE EVENING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AWAY FROM THE COAST. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE AREAL PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH AND WEST AND MID 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR DOWNEAST LOCALS NORTH INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. EXPECT INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP TO AFFECT THE AREA INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL HEADING INTO THE EVENING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE RAIN OR A MIX WILL LIKELY HOLD ON. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FIRST WAVE OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW. AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW, DRIVEN BY A VERY STRONG 500 MB MOVES NORTH, WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM WITH THIS UPDATE...WEIGHTING THE FORECAST A LITTLE HEAVIER TOWARD THE NAM AS IT LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THE SHARPER GRADIENT OF QPF BETTER ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM. THE UPSHOT IS THAT FOR SUNDAY MORNING SNOW PICKS UP AND MAY FALL HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCALS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET WILL LIKELY MIX IN AT TIMES OVER WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES DUE TO WARMER AIR BEING DRAWN IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WHILE CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM TOWARD WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRING IN THE CWA, A SMALL CHANGE IN THE PRECISE TRACK, WHICH IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN, WILL IMPACT WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW SET UP AND WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT A SWATH OF AT LEAST 7 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH IN THE NORTH AND UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WHEN COMBINED WITH WET SNOW BUILDING UP ON TREES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTH AND LOW 40S DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXPECT QUIETER WEATHER HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TONIGHT W/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM: MAINLY IFR/LIFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO SNOW, POTENTIALLY HEAVY, AND STRONG WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON W/THE APPROACH OF THE FIRST LOW. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HITTING 35 KTS. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING WINDS W/HIGHTS APPROACHING 8-10 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING. SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS NEAR STORM FORCE WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SUNDAY DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SUNDAY. WE ALSO EXPECT SEAS RISING INTO THE 9-13 FOOT RANGE BY SUNDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-015>017-029-030-032. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...CB/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS

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