Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 041905 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 305 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER LAC ST JEAN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TON. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL WITH A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL RADIATIONAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 850H AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW AND NE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE M/U 30S...BUT FROST IS NOT EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY. THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE AND INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES. A SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE LINE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH MONDAY. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH LATER MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA MON NIGHT, BRINGING A CHC POPS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL ACROSS THE CWA AS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW APPROACHES ACROSS SRN QUEBEC. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS POINT, WITH GFS ACTUALLY PUSHING A LOW & FRONT THRU THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED, WHILE THE EURO PULLS THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES FM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LWR ST. LAWRENCE. DID LWR POPS A BIT TUE NIGHT INTO WED, BUT STILL KEPT CHC AND SLGT CHC POPS. BOTH FINALLY SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU WED NIGHT INTO THURS, SO DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT IN SOME AREAS. BOTH SHOW A WET END TO NEXT WEEK, BUT HAVE VERY DIFFERENT WAYS TO GET THERE. THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FM THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI EVE. THE EURO HOLDS OFF ON THAT UNTIL THE WEEKEND, BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, BUT DOES PUSH SOME MOISTURE UP THE COAST WITH A COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY. WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE IF MODELS CONVERGE ON ONE OR THE OTHER SOLUTION. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS THAT PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD FORM TOWARD SUNRISE AND COULD BRIEFLY LOWER THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY AT KHUL AND KPQI. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AT KFVE... KCAR AND KPQI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THIS PERIOD TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE (2 FT BUILDING 4 FT/4-6 SECONDS) SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL (1 FOOT/9-10 SECONDS) THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DEW POINTS INCREASE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/MIGNONE

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