Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 182227 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 627 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the area tonight as high pressure builds to the south. A cold front will cross the state Thursday night, followed by high pressure Friday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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6:15PM Update: Aside from some adjustments to temps and dewpoints for current obs and trends through 00z, no major changes were made to the forecast. Did tweak sky grids a bit to show completely clear skies now, but possible arrival of some clouds across the St. John Valley later this evening. Though given latest satellite imagery, it appears that cloud cover may break up before reaching the CWA. Of interesting note, Millinocket experienced some rather strong downsloping this afternoon, with dewpoints dropping below 20F on gusty NW winds. Other mesonet sites near Millinocket with lakes just upwind kept dewpoints around 30F. Dewpoint at KMLT has since recovered to around 30F as of 6pm. Original Discussion: Dry weather continues through Thursday, with warmer and breezy conditions expected. High pressure will continue to build south of the region this evening. The cold front that crossed the state today will lift back north as a warm front overnight, so while clear skies are expected, increasing south flow will keep temperatures from plummeting too much tonight. This trend will carry over into Thursday with highs in the mid and upper 60s across much of the area. Another cold front will approach from the west late in the day, increasing clouds and possibly producing a shower or two over the far north in the evening. Winds will become gusty out ahead of this front; gusts of 25-30 mph are possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Still a mostly dry term w/a continuation of above normal daytime temps. A cold front is forecast to slide across the region Thursday night. The 12z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show some support for showers across the northern 1/2 of the CWA w/the best forcing across the far n and w. The 12z NAM and GEM are in support of this solution w/keeping the best chances of showers across the Allagash and St. John Valley. Decided to follow the midnight crew`s assessment of showing 30% pops across the aforementioned areas and 20% for the Caribou-Presque Isle west into northern Piscatquis County. It looks like QPF will be minimal w/amounts <0.05 inches. It will be a breezy day on Friday w/winds of 10-20 mph and some gusts to 25 mph. Despite the breeze, daytime temps will reach well into the 50s and 60s. The winds will let up by Friday night as high pres starts ridging in from the sw. This will allow for colder air to seep into the region. Overnight lows will be the coldest of the last few nights w/readings by early Saturday morning dropping into the upper 20s across the n and w while central and downeast areas will see low/mid 30s. Pleasant day expected on Saturday w/plenty of sun and temps a bit warmer than Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The above normal temps continue into early next week w/the prospect of some rain by mid week. High pres is forecast to ridge across the New England region into Monday. Upper heights are forecast to rise during this period which means a warming trend. Daytime temps during this time-frame look like they could easily hit the upper 60s to lower 70s and this could be a bit conservative. The trends in the long range guidance has been showing a warming trend over the last few cycles. The large high is expected to slide to the east Tuesday into Wednesday w/a return flow setting up from the Gulf of Mexico. The long range guidance including the ECMWF/GFS and Canadian Global showing a slow moving frontal system moving east across the Ohio Valley w/a series of lows moving up along the front bringing rain to the Northeastern United States. This front appears to pull moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. This could lead to some decent rainfall for the northern New England region. This would be some needed rainfall for the region. This is still 6 to 7 days out and there is still plenty of time to assess this situation. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Winds will abate and turn to the south tonight, then increase again on Thursday; south winds of 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt are expected. SHORT TERM: It looks like VFR right into the weekend w/high pres moving in from the sw. One caveat to this will be Thursday night across the far northern terminals such as KCAR, KPQI and KFVE for cigs to briefly drop to MVFR as a cold front slides across the region. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Thursday afternoon for the outer waters. South winds will increase through the day as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Gusts of 25-30 kt are expected by late afternoon, along with seas building to 5 to 7 feet. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas look like they will stay up in the SCA range into early Friday morning. Winds are forecast to drop off below 20 kts by Friday as winds go nw. Seas could be tricky as the SWAN guidance wants to keep seas up around 6 ft especially out over the outer zones for about another 6 hrs. Attm, decided to carry the SCA out through 09Z(5AM) Friday morning to cover for a delay in the conditions dropping off. Conditions will improve during the day on Friday continuing right into the weekend w/no headlines expected. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Hastings/Kredensor Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...Hastings/Kredensor/Hewitt Marine...Hastings/Kredensor/Hewitt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.