Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230212 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 912 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 9 PM UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING DOWNEAST SO RAISED TEMPS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AIR REMAINS VERY DRY AND HAD TO LOWER DEW POINTS. TEMPS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN ISOLATED AREAS SO KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALSO, AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS BLOSSOMED ACROSS EASTERN DOWNEAST AREAS SO ADDED SNOW SHOWERS, WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER, ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA. THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. THE RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTH MORE INDICATIVE OF SNOW/LIGHT SNOW AS EVIDENCE FROM THE OBS(KFVE) AND WEBCAMS. STILL EXPECTING AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLAGASH AND ST. JOHN VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD DOWNEAST, MOST OF THE RETURNS MOSTLY VIRGA W/POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DRY AIR ABOVE BELOW 700MBS. DECIDED TO CARRY 50-60% ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND THINGS DOWN BY THE EVENING AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES EAST. NOW, FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS, THERE IS A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE UPPER LEVELS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC THAT IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE NAM AND MOVES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS W/TEMPS COOLING IN THE BLYR(AOB 32F) AND A WARM RIBBON(ABOV 0C) FROM 925-850MBS. LLVL CONVERGENCE W/THE WEAK IMPULSE COULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME LIGHT PRECIP. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE MENTION FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG W/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO THE BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, NOT EXPECTING ANY ICING AND THEREFORE, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER THIS EVENING. MODERATING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY W/MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 40S DOWNEAST TO THE COAST W/WSW WINDS. NEED TO KEEP ANY EYE ON THE FCST THIS PACKAGE AS MOISTURE COULD KEEP BE TRAPPED W/A WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DRIER AIR. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL ONCE AGAIN BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE GFS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW MAINE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS W/SOME LIGHT FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE(FZDZ/--SN). ATTM, LEFT THE MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIP AS THE LLVLS DRY OUT FOR A TIME BEFORE MOISTENING UP BY THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE BY MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WARM ADVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EVENT HOWEVER WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY JET...EXPECT WARMING TO PROGRESS QUICKLY ALOFT AND MIX RAPIDLY DOWN TO SURFACE WITHOUT DEEP SNOW COVER....SO DO NOT EXPECT LONG PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND THE LOW BUT COLDEST AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF 500 TROUGH LATE IN DAY. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. FOR WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 TO BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS FROM RAW BLEND WITH RAPID AIR MASS CHANGE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. OPERATIONAL GFS PUTS THIS LOW CENTER NEAR CAPE SABLE ISLAND AROUND 1200 Z THURSDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ARE DIVIDED AS SOME MEMBERS TAKE LOW ON A TRACK CLOSE TO CAPE SABLE WHILE OTHERS FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. OVERAL A TREND FAVORING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DRAW SPECIFIC CONCLUSIONS. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION OF KFVE & KCAR AS -SN AND CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR INTO EARLY EVENING. VFR FOR SUNDAY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON AS MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR FOR CIGS AFT 18Z. SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE OUTER ZONES W/A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE PICKING UP AS EVIDENCE FROM THE BUOYS HITTING 25-30 KTS. SEAS HAVE COME UP AS WELL TO 6-7 FT. EXPECTING WINDS TO HIT 30-35 KTS THIS EVENING AND THEN FALL BACK AS THE LLVL JET EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 9 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS LOWER NEAR SHORE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO 20-25 KTS W/SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP OFF ON SUNDAY BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS FOR PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION DESTABLIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BEHIND LOW. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SOUTHERLY FETCH TO DEVELOP FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD EARLY MONDAY AND PERSIST UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT MONDAY EVENING. WIND WAVE BUILD TO MAXIMUM OF 14 FEET/10 SECONDS BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITIONING TO SWELL WEDNESDAY AND SUBSIDING. WIND/WAVES COULD BUILD AGAIN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE

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