Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241343 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 943 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will cross the region today with a cold front crossing tonight. High pressure will build across the region Saturday into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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940 AM Update... Adjusted the hrly temps/dewpoints based on the latest obs. Also adjusted the sky conditions to bring in line w/the latest satl imagery showing clouds overspreading the region. Radar loop showing returns moving into western and southern sections w/most of this very light and hitting dry air in the llvls. Highest returns still back across the west. Atmosphere is expected to moisten later this morning w/precip able to reach the blyr. The Canadian GEM aligned pretty well w/the radar and followed its trend w/bringing snow into the region by mid/late morning from sw to ne. Temps were warming quickly along the coast(around 30) and will continue to do so this morning. Some light precip could be in form of sleet or rain/snow mixed for a time as temps hit mid 30s. Dewpoints however, are expected to remain below 32F which could allow for the sleet for brief time. Kept the snowfall and QPF as is for now. Previous Discussion... A warm front will cross the region today with a cold front crossing tonight. High pressure will begin to build across the region later tonight. Light snow will develop across the region through the morning into the afternoon. Generally expect precipitation to remain in the form of snow today, though rain could mix the snow at times Downeast particularly closer to the coast. Snow accumulations across the forecast area today will be generally around an inch or less. Light snow will diminish early tonight with a chance of snow showers along the cold front. Any additional snow accumulation tonight is expected to be less than an inch. Cloud cover will then decrease later tonight with building high pressure. High temperatures today will range from the lower 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 20 to the lower 20s north, to the upper 20s to around 30 Downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong high pressure is expected to build in from the north Saturday morning and crest over the region mid day Sunday. The high will then move to the east late in the day Sunday. Expect mostly clear conditions under the influence of this system. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Clouds are expected to increase over the region Sunday night as low pressure moves northeast towards the Great Lakes Sunday night. This will result in overrunning precipitation developing across the region late Sunday night and continuing into Monday. Precipitation type is expected to be mostly snow in the north and central areas and a mixture of snow and rain in the south. A second low pressure system is then expected to approach from the southwest Tuesday and move across the region Wednesday. Precipitation with this low is expected to be mostly rain and snow mixed south and driven by diurnal temperature change across the north. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions will develop across the region today, with occasional IFR conditions also possible. Precipitation will be mostly in the form of snow today through tonight, though rain could mix with snow at times this afternoon into tonight Downeast particularly near the coast. Similar conditions will persist early tonight. Conditions will then improve later tonight. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Saturday and Sunday. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will increase today along with building seas. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters from later this morning through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in rain/snow later this morning into tonight. SHORT TERM: Have blended the GFS, ECMWF, and the NAM for sustained winds for Saturday and Sunday then transition to the Super Blend Winds. For Waves: A longer period wave system (5 feet/7-8 seconds) will be the primary wave group Saturday Morning. This wave group was generated the day before in a fetch which was confined to the Gulf of Maine, so should subside rapidly during the day Saturday as a new northeast wind wave system develops. Combined seas will continue to subside Sunday under light wind conditions. A new southeasterly fetch will develop Monday. Will use the Near Shore Prediction System for wave heights. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Hewitt/Norcross/Mignone Marine...Hewitt/Norcross/Mignone

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