Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 070004 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 804 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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8PM UPDATE... MINIMAL CHGS TO GRIDS NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. JUST TWEAKED HRLY T/TD VALUES IN LINE WITH ONGOING OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO AND TRIED TO DEPICT THAT IN GRIDS. STILL EXPECTING MINS TO DROP INTO THE LWR 60S BY DAYBREAK. SMOKEY SKIES ARE PREVALENT ACRS CWA BUT OVERALL A MOCLR SKY EXPECT FOR A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE THO CERTAINLY NOT IDEAL FOR STAR-GAZING. POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR STRATUS ALONG COASTAL CNTYS AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. PREV DISCUSSION BLO... SMOKE FROM WRN CAN AND THIN CI/CS KEPT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG F COOLER ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS AFTN...BUT STILL A NICE DAY OVERALL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLR WITH A LGT SSWRLY BREEZE OVRNGT. THE ONLY XCPTN MAY BE ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY TUE MORN AS INCREASING SFC-BL FLOW FROM THE S COULD ALLOW A SHALLOW BAND OF OCEANIC ST TO REACH SPCLY COASTAL DOWNEAST AREAS...SO WE MENTION BECOMING PTLY CLDY OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA DURG THIS TM PD. OVRNGT LOWS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST ABV 60 DEG F OVR MOST LCTNS...XCPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND VERY HI TRRN. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ST OVR DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORN WITH MORN SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE...SUNNY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLDNSS AND SFC HUMIDITY AS DWPTS INCREASE IN THE AFTN AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE OH VLY APCHS THE FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS TO FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA LATE TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE. HI TEMPS TUE WILL SHOW A MORE INVERTED S TO N LOOK DUE TO MORE SRLY COMPONENT SFC WINDS FROM THE GULF OF ME COOLING THE SRN THIRD OF THE FA COMPARED TO THIS AFTN`S HI TEMPS. OTHERWISE...MORE GENERAL SHWRS AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED CAPE TSTMS WILL SPREAD W TO E FROM QB LATE TUE NGT AS THE MAIN PROGRESSIVE NRN BR S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN APCHS THE FA. BY 12Z WED... THE ERN EDGE OF THE SHWRS SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO NW NB...THEN XTND SW THRU E CNTRL AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. DESPITE THIS PROGRESSION...MOST SIG RNFL WILL OCCUR OVR THE NW THIRD OF THE FA FROM LATE TUE AFTN THRU 12Z WED. OVRNGT LOWS WILL EVEN BE WARMER TUE NGT WITH HIGH DWPTS ALG WITH S TO N XPNSN OF LOW CLDNSS AND FOG ACROSS ALL OF THE FA LATE TUE NGT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN MAINE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE DOWNEAST REGION. QPF VALUES OF UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL FALL WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY AND CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE THIS WEEK. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL SITES INITIALLY. LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT KBHB WILL BE AFFECTED BY MARINE LAYER EARLY TUE MORN, WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A TIME BEFORE CLEARING AFTER 12Z. SOME MARINE INFLUENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KBGR EARLY TUE MORN, BUT NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN 00Z TAF. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR MUCH OF TUE, THEN DROP TO MVFR AND IFR TUE NIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KBHB IN STRATUS AND FOG.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ATTM. SRLY WINDS AND WVS WILL INCREASE LATER TUE THRU TUE NGT...BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA ATTM. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS THRU THE NEAR TERM. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR/VJN SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...FMK/OKULSKI MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI

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