Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 131359 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 859 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE SNOW IN THE PENOBSCOT BAY REGION TODAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9 AM UPDATE...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORLUN TROUGH IS FALLING MAINLY ACROSS PENOBSCOT BAY AND SOUTHWEST HANCOCK COUNTY WITH ONLY REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW FALLING IN PARTS OF WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY AS OF 830 AM. CALLS TO WEATHER SPOTTERS INDICATE 7" OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT AT DEER ISLE WITH ONLY AN INCH 5 MILES TO THE EAST AT BROOKLIN. REPORTS ON SOCIAL MEDIA OF A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW ON PARTS OF DEER ISLE! TO THE EAST...NOT EVEN A FLAKE OF SNOW AT ELLSWORTH OR MDI. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS THE BAND OF SNOW MAY SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST BEFORE ENDING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE NORLUN TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SETTING UP IN PENOBSCOT BAY AND WILL LINGER IN THAT AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PUSHING THE SNOW IN PENOBSCOT BAY EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE REMOVED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR INTERIOR HANCOCK COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT IN FAVOR OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HAVE LEFT THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN PLACE FOR COASTAL HANCOCK WITH MOST OF THE SNOWFALL LIKELY WEST OF MDI. SOME OF THE ISLANDS IN PENOBSCOT BAY COULD SCORE AROUND 10 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE AMOUNTS WILL QUICKLY TAPER TO JUST A COUPLE OF INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE OF MDI. HAVE ALSO DROPPED AMOUNTS FOR BANGOR TO JUST AROUND 3 INCHES...MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL ORGANIZE WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH/ARCTIC FRONT TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON FROM FORT KENT SOUTH TO BANGOR AND SWEEP EAST TO THE BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. THIS LINE COULD DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITH STRONG WINDS AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES. THE WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. HAVE LEFT WIND CHILL HEADLINES UNCHANGED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... INSTABILITY TROF WL BE EXITING INTO ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM PD. MAXES ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO RMN BLO ZERO IN THE NORTH WOODS AND ST. JOHN VLY WHILE CNTRL AROOSTOOK WL TOP OUT RIGHT ARND ZERO. THE "WARMEST" TEMPS WL BE FELT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, POSSIBLY CLIMBING INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE AFTN. GRADIENT WL RMN HIGH THRU THE DAY WITH WINDS FM THE WNW FM 10-15KTS UNTIL HIPRES BUILDS IN DRG THE EVNG. WIND CHILLS WL BE IN THE WRNG CATEGORY (< -35F) IN THE WRN ZONES WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. WL BE EXPANDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY DOWN TO INCLUDE COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON CNTYS THRU SUN MRNG. SFC HIGH BUILDS TWD CWA SUN NGT FM THE WEST WITH RIDGE AXIS ACRS THE AREA MON MRNG. AS HIPRES BUILDS OFFSHORE BY 18Z WINDS WL BACK ARND TO THE SOUTH DRAWING INCREASINGLY WRMR AIR IN WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE TEENS ACRS THE NORTH AND M20S ALONG THE COAST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WL COMMENCE ON 285K LAYER MON EVNG, INCREASING THRU THE OVRNGT AS OVERRUNNING SETS UP. EXPECT MINS TO BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MAXES ON MONDAY WITH STRONG WAA OCCURRING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTS TO DISAGREE ON TRACK ALTHO THEY ARE COMING TOGETHER ON MORE OF A TUE/TUE EVNG TIMEFRAME FOR NEXT EVENT. GFS AND CMC ARE SIMILAR WITH TRACK BISECTING CWA WITH EC RMNG FURTHEST TO THE WEST. EITHER WAY, WITH SUCH A WARM SURGE EXPECTED TO RIDE UP ON 75-80KT SRLY LLJ PARTS OF THE AREA MAY SEE ARND 1.5 INCH 24-HR QPF AMNTS BTWN 12Z TUE AND 12Z WED. HV WORDED TUE MRNG AS EITHER RAIN OR SNOW WITH MOST AREAS GOING OVR TO RAIN DRG THE AFTN THEN BACK TO SNOW AFT 06Z WED. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET MUCH MORE DETAILED THAN RA/SN ESPECIALLY WITH DISCREPANCIES STILL EXISTING IN MED RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. UPR LVL TROF PASSES THRU AREA BY THURSDAY WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING IN BRIEFLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK BFR NEXT SYSTEM WINDS UP TO OUR WEST. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TO START. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CREATING TEMPO IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS. VFR RETURNS THIS EVENING TO ALL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A NORTH-SOUTH SNOW SQUALL LINE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPACT TAF SITES SUCH AS BGR MID-AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. MVFR WILL MOVE IN MON EVENING TO SOUTHERN ZONES AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SPREADING TO NORTHERN TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE REDUCED TO OCNL IFR IN MIXED PRECIP THROUGH WED MORNING AT NORTHERN SITES AND IN MAINLY RA AT BGR AND BHB. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY TOO. SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL BE ONGOING ON SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT SCA CRITERIA TO BE MET SUN EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MON MORNING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPS IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONT. SCA EXPECTED AGAIN MON EVNG WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON TUE/TUE EVNG AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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THE LOW OF -14F AT CARIBOU EARLY THIS MORNING WAS THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS WINTER.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ002- 005-006-011-015>017-029>032. WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001- 003-004-010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015- 016. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ029. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MCW SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...FARRAR AVIATION...CB/MCW/FARRAR MARINE...CB/MCW/FARRAR CLIMATE...CB

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