Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 240606 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 206 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S NORTH...TO THE MID 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES..CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DOWN EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR LOW WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THRU THE WEEKEND. H5 LOW CENTER WL LKLY BE LOCATED OVR THE STATE FRI NGT. SPOKE OF UPR LVL S/WV LOOKS TO ROTATE THRU NRN ZONES IN THE EVNG BFR SHIFTING WEAKENING BY MIDNIGHT, THUS HV STARTED THE SHORT TERM WITH LKLY POPS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO CHC AFT 04Z. EXPECT HIGHEST QPF AMNTS TO BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ACRS NW ZONES. NW FLOW CONTS FOR FRI NGT BUT THIS WL LKLY BE IN COMPETITION WITH EXTENSIVE CLD CVR, THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TEMP FALL FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. FIRST GUESS IS THAT NORTH WOODS SHUD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO THE LWR 30S WITH BTWN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW FALLING THRU SAT MRNG. RAIN CONTINUES OFF AND ON DRG THE DAY SATURDAY IN PROXIMITY TO UPR COLD POOL WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO RUN SVRL DEGREES BLO NORMAL. MAIN H5 LOW SLIDES EAST INTO NORTH ATLANTIC SAT NGT, HWVR ANOTHER VORT LOBE LOOKS TO BREAK OFF FM PARENT LOW AND SEND YET ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS INTO CWA SUN AFTN. LOW TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER SUN MRNG LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAIN SURFACE LOW OFF EAST COAST OF US WITH SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW OVER CWA WILL RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN TO AN INVERTED TROF EARLY MONDAY. THIS TROF IS PERSISTENT UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOWSHOWERS BEFORE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM NORTHEAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT NORTHERN TERMINALS TO MIX WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGE TO -SHSN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHORT TERM: WAVES AND WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... MATM1 WILL REMAIN ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RISES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH ADD`L RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AREA WATERWAYS ARE RUNNING AT 150-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS STILL ICE ON THE ST JOHN RIVER AROUND VAN BUREN...BUT THERE ARE NO KNOWN ISSUES AT THIS TIME. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...PJR AVIATION...NORCROSS/FARRAR MARINE...NORCROSS/FARRAR HYDROLOGY...DUDA/CB

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