Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 010218 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1018 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPDATE... SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOCUS FOR TOMORROW BECOMES UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST 600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...NORCROSS/HASTINGS/BERDES MARINE...NORCROSS/BERDES

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