Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 291016 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 616 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push off the coast today and tonight. Low pressure tracking along the front will pass south of the Gulf of Maine early tonight. High pressure will build across the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 615 am update... Quick update to hrly temps and dwpts as portions of the North Woods dipped into the 40s in the past hour. Front appears to hv eeked past BHB ovrngt as they hv gone north with fog dissipating as winds kicked up. Still expect frontal bndry to strengthen this aftn but hv had to drop pops for the next svrl hrs as pcpn rmns offshore of srn ME. Expect this wl change shortly aft 12z and hv adjusted pops accordingly. Fog wl lkly burn off in the next hr as sunshine works its magic. Prev discussion blo... Main cdfnt looks to hv stalled btwn Bangor and Bar Harbor as of 06z. Wk sfc low existS just to the south of Casco Bay. This wl help reinforce convergence along the front this mrng. As moisture pools along the front and lead s/wv moves into the Gulf of Maine expect showers to begin to break out along the coast around 10z this mrng. Front wl rmn in the vicinity of the coast thru the day tda with chc pops maximizing arnd 18z this aftn. Instability looks to be weaker than yda and hv only gone with isold thunder this aftn due to poor lapse rates in moist airmass. Patchy fog expected this mrng along with locally dense fog in areas which received rain yda. Downeast zones wl be some 5-10 degrees cooler than Thur whereas locales acrs the north wl see max temps fairly similar to Thur. Wk sfc trof crossing northern Maine may spark off an isold thunder this aftn for a brief pd of time. Pcpn wl diminish drg the evng as main front pushes well offshore. Sfc low currently located ovr the Delmarva progged to track well south of Nova Scotia tonight and wl lkly not be a player in area`s wx ovrngt. As has happened the previous two nights expect Downeast and coastal areas to see patchy fog aft midnight tonight. With north flow bringing in drier dwpts, not expecting locally dense fog at this time. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure supported by ridging over central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada will push across the area this weekend. This will bring sunshine Saturday mixed with some cumulus clouds over the north and a few high clouds Downeast. Saturday night will be mostly clear and comfortable. Sunshine will return again on Sunday as the high continues to build over the area. Some high cloudiness is still possible Downeast from moisture along a frontal boundary near Southern New England. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As we go into early next week, a bit of a split in jet stream flow with weak ridging in central Canada and a weak trough over the Mid- Atlantic will persist. Some moisture and weak low pressure associated with the Mid-Atlantic trough may stray into the area on Monday bringing a chance of showers, especially Downeast. The chance of showers may continue into Tuesday as a weak trough very slowly moves east of New England. Ridging will return on Wednesday. However, a differential flow including southwesterlies near the surface and west, northwesterlies aloft may allow for a chance of thunderstorms across northern areas Wednesday afternoon or evening. The differential flow including some shear will continue on Thursday bringing another chance for thunderstorms, mainly over the north, with an otherwise partly to mostly sunny, warm and humid day Thursday. A cold front pushing into the area on Friday will bring the potential for more widespread thunderstorms to the region Friday afternoon. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions vary between VFR and IFR, specifically at CAR, PQI and HUL. FVE expected to remain VFR as low level moisture has dried out in wake of fropa. CAR, PQI and HUL will likely see IFR or LIFR as a result of rain from yesterday and moclr skies. Still expecting IFR restrictions to develop at BFR and BHB in the next several hours, likely lifting after daybreak. VFR remainder of TAF valid time outside of -tsra that may occur nr BGR terminal this afternoon. Confidence is low in this occurring and have not included in TAFs. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area Saturday into Sunday. VFR conditions will likely persist across the north on Monday but may lower to MVFR Downeast in lower clouds and some showers. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Expect winds and seas to remain well below SCA criteria through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced over the waters this morning and possibly Sat morning as well. SHORT TERM: Winds and Seas are expected to remain below SCA through the weekend and into early next week. Visibilities will likely be good over the weekend but may lower on Monday with some showers. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...Farrar/Bloomer Marine...Farrar/Bloomer

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