Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 151409 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 909 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure in the western Great Lakes will move toward the region tonight. Low pressure will intensify to the south of the area tonight and is expected to pass well east of Nova Scotia late tonight. High pressure will slowly build into the area from the west over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9 AM Update...The sky remains clear and forecast on track today. Some high clouds will likely begin to increase late today and the wind will diminish just a bit. Previous discussion... A weak area of low pressure across the western Great Lakes early this morning will move east into southern Quebec tonight. Low pressure in western North Carolina will deepen rapidly today along a strong baroclinic zone, and will be off the Delmarva coast this evening, and will pass east of Nova Scotia tonight. Today will start mainly sunny with some increase in mainly high clouds this afternoon. It will remain cold with highs from 10 to 15 degrees in the Saint John Valley to the low 20s in the Greater Bangor Region. Wind chills will be below zero across much of the region this morning. Moisture will be scant with the incoming low from the west, but perhaps just enough for some flurries or an isolated snow shower after midnight across the western Mountains. An inverted trough associated with the ocean low will provide the focus for convergence, and with an influx of ocean moisture some snow may brush the Downeast coast. The models do not agree so much with some models and ensembles keeping most of it offshore or to the south, but with some brushing the coast with an inch or or two of fluffy snow. Bumped up the PoPs just a bit and have around an inch of snow on the immediate coast and outer islands, but with little or no snow expected in the Greater Bangor Region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures below normal through the upcoming weekend. There could be a bit of snow first thing Saturday morning along the down east coast in association with inverted trof/ departing oceanic low. Could also see a few flurries or snow showers across northern and central portions of the region associated with mid level short wave moving southeast from the Great Lakes region. Otherwise expect partly sunny skies by afternoon. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid and upper teens north and low to mid 20s down east. Saturday night looks to be mainly clear and continued cold as high pressure starts to build east from central Canada. With the high still well to our northwest there should still be a fairly decent gradient across the area limiting radiational cooling potential. That being said, we are still looking at lows ranging from the single digits below zero north to 5 to 10 above across central and down east. Sunday will feature abundant sunshine with light winds as high pressure builds right across the region. Highs on Sunday will only range from around 10 above across the far north and low to mid 20s down east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Looks like decent radiational cooling conditions are possible Sunday evening as high pressure slides across the region and into the Canadian maritimes. Clouds will be on the increase late Sunday night in advance of the next short wave approaching the region from the west. This system has the potential to bring a chance of light snow to the region on Monday. 00z NAM/EC/Canadian would support this solution with GFS the drier model. For now, only low pops (30 to 40%) were indicated for Monday, with the greater chances down east. Looking further ahead, weak short waves are forecast to cross the region through the extended period with snow showers north and snow or rain showers down east. Temperatures do begin to moderate to closer to normal by mid week as upper flow becomes more zonal across the region. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected today and tonight. A brief period of MVFR possible in -sn at KBHB later tonight. SHORT TERM: Mainly VFR Saturday through Sunday night. MVFR/IFR possible in some light snow or snow showers Monday into Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory remains in effect this morning. The gradient slackens by around midday as high pres builds over the waters into this evening. A few gusts may approach 25 knots on the coastal waters late tonight as an ocean storm passes well to the south and east of the waters. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions are possible Saturday into Saturday night. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Duda Long Term...Duda Aviation...CB/Duda Marine...CB/Duda

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