Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251917 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 317 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain southeast of the region through tonight. A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon. High pressure will build across the region Saturday then move to the east Sunday. Another cold front will approach the area Sunday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CWA rmns in fairly benign sw flow as cdfnt rmns stagnant acrs Quebec tonight with hipres ovr the Atlantic. Multiple wk wvs wl be rotating thru aloft but vry little to pin any more than about 30 pops on at this point. Still expecting just an isold thunder threat and wl keep mention in thru 02z this evng bfr airmass stabilizes. Low-lvl moisture wl be drawn in on southerly flow and expect patchy fog to dvlp acrs the entire area by 06z. Areas of fog expected ovr the waters aft 09z and continuing thru most of the day in humid airmass. Airmass wl rmn soupy tonight with mins only dropping into the m60s at all locations. Front wl rmn north of CWA tonight bfr finally being shoved south Fri morning as H5 wv currently dropping thru wrn Ontario drives a sfc low into Newfoundland, propelling it south. Front progged to mv thru the area drg the aftn with plenty of instability but little moisture to work with. Hv opted to go with 20-40 pops along the front tomorrow and isold thunder.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The cold front will exit the Down East region Friday evening with lower humidity working its way southward through the night. Some patchy fog is possible along the coast early in the evening. Will go for a mostly sunny day on Saturday. The only concern would be some stratocu fields in Aroostook County in the NW flow. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 70s north and upper 70s to lower 80s for Bangor and Down East. Humidity will be much lower on Saturday and continue to be reasonable on Sunday. Expect a relatively cool night Saturday night with lows in the upper 40s north and low to mid 50s south. Would go for lower temps, but am concerned about increasing cirrus later in the night ahead of the next system. The next system has sped up in the latest guidance packages and have introduced chance pops in the northwestern portion of the forecast area for the afternoon. Also increased cloud cover for most of the area Sunday to the extent that mostly cloudy skies are now forecast in northern zones.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The frontal system for Sunday night and Monday morning looks a little stronger than previously with a reasonable chance of rainfall totaling a quarter to a half inch for much of the area. Most of the precip will occur Sunday night and the cold front will ease through the area Monday with some additional shower activity. It is possible a few thunderstorms could occur Monday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to specify them in the forecast at this time. High pressure and lower humidity return to the forecast Monday night into Tuesday night. A weak cold front will arrive Wednesday morning with little precipitation, but a good chance of more fall-like temps and humidity for Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals through 06z before MVFR and eventually IFR restrictions work in as southerly flow draws low level moisture northward. Expect improvement to VFR after 15z Fri. SHORT TERM: VFR through Sunday evening with the exception of patchy shallow fog in valleys later Saturday night. IFR cigs in rain are expected Sunday night into Monday morning.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: SCA for hazardous seas is in effect tonight into Fri afternoon for the outer waters. Seas will be near 5 feet in southerly swell. Areas of fog expected across the waters in the morning. SHORT TERM: Fog is expected to linger into Friday evening before dissipating. Some areas of fog may return Sunday night. Seas may approach 5 ft later Monday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...MCW Long Term...MCW Aviation...Farrar/MCW Marine...Farrar/MCW

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