Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220506 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 106 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pres will continue to bring fair conditions into Thursday. Low pres from central Canada will move across the region Thursday night into Friday bringing rain to the region. Colder air is expected for the first full weekend of Autumn as another Canadian high pressure builds in behind the low. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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107 AM Update... Adjusted the hrly temps/dewpoints to match the latest conditions as cooling ongoing. Daycrew`s overnight low temperatures look good. Decided to add fog for the river valleys right around sunrise. Bufkit soundings support this w/some radiational cooling. IR satl imagery showed some clouds across northern Quebec dropping se. This is in response to a weak cold front as seen on the meso analysis moving across the St. Lawrence River. Given the trajectory of the cloud shield, expecting most of this to remain n of the border. Previous discussion... A dry secondary cold front will slowly cross the region with little even in the way of cldnss. This front, which will stall near the Downeast coast on Thu, will provide a track for low pres from the upper great lks to track alg aft this pd. Meanwhile, aft a ngt which will feature diminishing winds, fair conditions, diminishing winds and cooler ovrngt lows, Thu will begin with msly sunny skies. Increasing cldnss will follow for Thu aftn with the leading edge of rain reaching far NW ptns of the region late in the aftn as the low from the great lks begins to apch. Between cooler fcst aftn 925-850mb temps and increasing aftn cldnss, hi temps Thu will be 5 to 8 deg cooler than this aftn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Rain will spread into the forecast area Thursday night as low pressure treks across the forecast area. The low will move into New Brunswick Friday morning and drag a cold front across Maine in its wake. Much drier air will follow the front, so expect the rain will taper to showers by Friday afternoon with the bulk of the activity shifting toward Downeast and the coast. There` still some model spread as to where exactly the low will track, which will have a direct impact on exactly where the heaviest rain will fall. For now, have stayed closer to the NAM, GFS, and Canadian as the ECMWF looks to be a southern outlier. This would place the heaviest rain along and north of a Houlton- Greenville line. These areas would get a half to three-quarters of an inch, with some higher amounts possible. South of this line, rainfall totals would be a quarter to a half of an inch, less than a quarter inch along the immediate coast. As mentioned above, much drier and cooler air will spread into the area late Friday and Friday night. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop into the mid and upper 30s across much of the northern half of our forecast area, with some 20s possible in the usual cold valley locations in the North Woods. Central and Downeast areas will bottom out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A party to mostly sunny day follows on Saturday. It`ll be cool side though, ranging from the lower 50s across the Saint John Valley to the lower 60s Downeast. Winds will be breezy out of the northwest as well, adding to the brisk feel of the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The model guidance is in good agreement through the period. An upper level low over eastern Quebec and a high pressure ridge over the eastern half of the USA into central Canada will be the dominate weather features through most of the period. The upper level low will slowly drift southeast and will finally move south of the area Tuesday evening. The high pressure ridge at this time is forecasted to block a new frontal that will dominating the weather through the southeast and upper midwest. The high pressure ridge will remain across Maine through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Contd VFR is xpctd all TAF sites overnight and thru 00z Fri. SHORT TERM: Rain will spread across the state Thursday night into Friday morning, resulting in prevailing MVFR conditions, locally lower to IFR at times. A cold front will cross the area Friday afternoon, bringing rain to an end and improving conditions to VFR at all sites by 00z Sat. VFR will then prevail through Saturday night. Scattered showers and MVFR ceilings will develop over the northern terminals Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd, with long pd 10 sec swell will continue ovr our waters tngt into Thu, with wv hts 2 to 3 ft ovr outer coastal zones, and 1 to 2 ft alg the immediate coast. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts. SHORT TERM: Low pressure will move north of the waters Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds and seas are expected to increase as a result and may briefly approach Small Craft levels before subsiding behind a cold frontal passage Friday afternoon/evening. No headlines have been issued at this point, but they may be needed as model trends become more clear. High pressure will then build over the waters, along with quiescent conditions, through the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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