Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 041348 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 948 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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945 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE HRLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BRING THEM UP PER THE LATEST CONDITIONS. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT/TROF LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE MOIST(HIGHER DEWPOINTS) THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER INTO THE AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED W/THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO NNW AREAS BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT DO MUCH TO LIMIT THE SUNSHINE. THE NAM12 MESOSCALE GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS QUITE WELL. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO THE AFTERNOON W/SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE ATTM DUE TO THESE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THE 925 MB TEMP ON THE 00Z KCAR SOUNDING LAST EVENING WAS +14C AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE A 925 MB TEMP OF +19C THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BOOST DUE TO A BIT OF DOWNSLOPING SW WIND ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE IDEAL. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF TO THE NW OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE NORTH THROUGH THE ALLAGASH. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED AS THEY APPROACH THE DOWNEAST REGION. QPF WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AT MOST LOCALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE WITH LITTLE/NO MEASURABLE RAIN DOWNEAST. THE BEST CAPE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE TIMING NOT BEING FAVORABLE FOR A VERY HIGH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SHOWERS ENTER THE AREA MOSTLY AFTER 00Z. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE THE WARM/DRY WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, EXPECT ANY LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS WE MIX TO 750MB. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW DOWNEAST MAINE TO TOP OUT AROUND 70. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE`S NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY, SO OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER, IT WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR. AS SUCH, MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRAPE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO LIFT AS THE LOW TREKS EASTWARD. THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINE, KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY MAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING FOG THAT COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE THE VSBY AT KBHB. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. THE SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT WILL CAP THEM AT 5 FT AND HOLD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE DAYSHIFT WILL LIKELY WISH TO REEVALUATE AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT DURATION SCA ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING, KEEPING HIGHER WINDS AWAY FROM THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL MIXED TO AROUND 700 MILLIBARS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING STRONGER SW WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THE AIR MASS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ALLAGASH. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 22 TO 27 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WIND WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND THUS THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. LOW RH`S...GUSTY AFTERNOON WIND...AND NO RAINFALL THROUGH THU WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FOREFRONT THIS WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006- 010-011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HEWITT/HASTINGS FIRE WEATHER...HEWITT/CB

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