Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 010120 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 920 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will build over the region tonight then move east on Friday. A warm front will cross the area Friday night. A cold front will cross the region Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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9:20 PM Update...Diurnal Cu has rapidly dissipated across the CWA early this evening. There have been some hints at fog along the parts of the coast based mainly on web cam images and the limited coastal observations. Have added some patchy fog along the coast. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast is in fine shape with only some very minor tweaks based on the 9 pm observations. Previous discussion... Skies will clear this evening as a weak upper ridge builds in from the west. Tonight will then be clear with light winds. Some patchy fog is possible in a few low lying areas, especially where the ground has been moistened from rain. Friday will then be sunny and very warm as surface high pressure slides to our south and the upper level ridge slowly moves to our east. A southerly breeze will increase in the afternoon as a new trough of low pressure approaches from the west and clouds will begin to increase from the west very late in the afternoon. Some showers may stray into far western areas at the end of the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An occluded front will cross the region Friday night through early Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will cross the region Saturday afternoon while an upper level low approaches northwest areas. Temperatures aloft will cool Saturday afternoon along with steepening mid level lapse rates which will increase instability. An upper level disturbance rotating around the upper low will cross the region during the afternoon along with the surface cold front. Any diurnal heating will also increase afternoon instability and thunderstorm potential. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms could occur across the region Saturday afternoon into the evening. The upper low will then track north of Maine Saturday night, keeping mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers across northern areas. Generally expect partly cloudy skies Downeast Saturday night. The upper low will exit across the maritimes Sunday, with a surface trof crossing the region. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north and mountains Sunday with isolated to scattered showers. Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected Downeast Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be at near normal levels Saturday. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of right now, it looks like most of the area should have a decent Independence Day on Monday as ridging builds in from the west and heights rise. There are some hints of potential shower or thunderstorm activity up north on a few recent model runs, but kept POPs under 25 percent for the most part. While neither the ECMWF or the GFS have any significant weather features affecting the state through Day 8, they both take very different solutions. The ECMWF is decidedly the `wetter` solution, with a couple upper-level shortwaves pushing disturbances and showers through the CWA. The GFS, on the other hand, is much drier courtesy of a stronger and more durable upper ridge. For now, mostly kept POPs under 25 or 30 percent until the models can hopefully come into better agreement. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area tonight and Friday. The only possible exception may be some patchy fog in some spots before dawn on Friday. SHORT TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the region Friday night into early Saturday with showers and thunderstorms. Occasional MVFR to LIFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern areas Saturday night with VFR conditions across the remainder of the forecast area. Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to be below SCA through Friday. A southerly breeze will increase Friday afternoon and a few gusts may reach 15 to 20 kt late in the day. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Friday night into Sunday. Visibilities will be reduced in fog Friday night into Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected Friday night, with still a chance of showers Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/CB Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Kredensor Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/CB/Norcross

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