-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 171010
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA TODAY. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. SOME MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6AM UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS DOWN EAST AND BANGOR FOR
TODAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES AS HEATING LIFTS STRATOCU DECK
AND PRODUCES A VERY SLIGHT UNSTABLE LAYER TO H700.

STRATOCUMULUS COVERING NORTHERN ZONES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO THE
COAST IN A NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING...PROVIDING A MOSTLY CLOUDY
DAY FOR MOST ZONES. THESE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT
HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PARTS OF HANCOCK COUNTY WILL REACH INTO THE
LOW 60S DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 MPH BY
THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A RATHER BRISK MID-MAY DAY. CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THIS EVENING AND ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S
IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH FROST DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER
EXTENDING IT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND CENTRAL
PENOBSCOT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER LINGERING STRATOCU
FIELDS WILL REDUCE THE RADIATION COOLING AND FROST FORMATION.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE SAT NIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND.  A SFC HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUN.  NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN A COOL NW FLOW ALOFT SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
OF THE AIR MASS SUN AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
THE HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES SLOWLY RISE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS SAT WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND
ALONG THE COAST...WITH A FEW SPOTS INLAND DOWNEAST TO REACH 60
DEGREES. AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA SAT NIGHT THE
COMBINATION OF A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT/CALM WIND ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST AND EVEN A HARD FREEZE IN
SOME OF THE COLDER SHELTERED VALLEYS. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND DOWNEAST AREAS...BUT THERE MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THIS AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER FROST
ADVISORIES AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WILL NOT MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY.  THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN HAVING THE FRONT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND SCOOTING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA.  DID BUMP
UP THE POPS A BIT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA TUE-WED...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD INTER OR
INTRA RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.  IT APPEARS THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS AS DISTURBANCES TRACK ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.  GIVEN THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE DURING
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.  HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 12Z/16TH ECMWF ACTUALLY PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
AND HAS A COOL/DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND WOULD BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
WHEN THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WOULD BRING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS FROM HUL NORTHWARD WILL LIFT TO VFR TOWARDS
MIDDAY.  OTHERWISE...ALL SITES WILL BE VFR.

SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE LATE SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING TO IFR/MVFR IN
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SOUTH SWELL OF WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 8 TO 10
SECONDS AND WAVE HTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
AROUND 4 FEET THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD REACH 20
KTS IN ANZ050 THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SHORT TERM: A LIGHT WIND REGIME THIS WEEKEND AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS WITH SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
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A CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR CARIBOU AND BANGOR FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF MAY IS AVAILABLE AT PWMPNSCAR OR NOUS41 KCAR.

PLEASE CHECK OUT OUR FACEBOOK PAGE AT:
HTTPS:/WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CARIBOU.GOV
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...MCW/CB
MARINE...MCW/CB
CLIMATE...CB