Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281029 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 629 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL PULL A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6:30 AM UPDATE...A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHWESTERN MAINE AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS CARRY THIS RAIN ACROSS OUR DOWNEAST AREAS SO INTRODUCED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH LATE TODAY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. THE THIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS WARM FRONT, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MIDDAY TODAY THEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS EVENING. A WEAK OCCLUDING FRONT WILL THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MILD AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE REGION. THIS SOUTH FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT SOME 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE RAIN COMING TO AN END SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THERE WON`T BE A BIG INFLUX OF COOLER AIR POST-FRONT, SO EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH. FOR THURSDAY...A COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TERM. THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA, STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. THE 28/00Z GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER VA/MD, BUT GENERALLY DOESN`T HAVE MUCH SUCCESS AS THE PARENT LOW STAYS IN CONTROL. THE SURFACE LOW STAYS WELL OFF THE COAST. THIS SET UP WOULD RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW JUST ABOUT EVERYONE AWAY FROM THE COAST TO SEE SNOW. THE SNOW WOULD GO BACK OVER TO RAIN ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE 28/00Z CMC IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS, THOUGH IT IS A BIT WEAKER WITH THE PARENT TROUGH, WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS EVEN LIGHTER ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BIG OUTLIER IS THE 28/00Z ECMWF, WHICH REALLY DIGS THE SHORTWAVE AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH, AND EVENTUALLY DEEPENS IT INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW THEN SLIDES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY PHASES IN WITH THE PARENT LOW, ALLOWING A 983MB SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. OBVIOUSLY, THIS SOLUTION WOULD OFFER UP A SNOWY WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND CMC ARE PREFERRED, AS THERE`S BEEN A LITTLE MORE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER, WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THE ECMWF CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF IT STICKS WITH ITS MUCH STRONGER, MUCH CLOSER LOW. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST MAY LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT CROSSES THE REGION, ALONG WITH RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE. OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR IN DAYTIME RAIN/OVERNIGHT SNOW. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. SOUTH WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM: A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT AND WAVES RIGHT AROUND 5 FEET. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY AND POTENTIALLY ISSUE THE SCA IF NECESSARY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS

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