Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221051 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 551 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 550 AM UPDATE...WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR UP ACROSS THE WESTERN SAINT JOHN VALLEY. THERE`S FAIRLY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE SO THERE`S PROBABLY NOT MUCH MAKING IT DOWN TO THE GROUND ATTM, BUT DO EXPECT SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP THE SURFACE LAYER A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, SKY, AND TEMPS FOR CURRENT CONDTIONS. OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND CHANGES WERE MAINLY COSMETIC WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH. FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS. AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+ SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL LAPSE RATES. OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL RISE OF TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL FOR THIS DATE. AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM. WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY, GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052. GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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