Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251603 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1103 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11 AM UPDATE...SNOW IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF DOWNEAST. MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF DOWNEAST THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS AND WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. PREVOUS DISCUSSION...A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TODAY`S SNOW EVENT. AFTER SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW LAST EVENING, WE`RE STARTING TO SEE SOME HEAVIER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL TREK EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING, FOLLOWING THE PATH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND THEREBY WE EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES FOR A TIME AS IT CROSSES DOWNEAST MAINE AND THEN PIVOTS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN MAINE TODAY. THIS IS A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM, SO IT`S DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK AND HOW MUCH SNOW IT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE IN ANY ONE AREA. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE`S ALREADY A SHARP COASTAL FRONT SETTING UP, WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND LOCATIONS JUST INLAND STILL IN THE TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS. THIS FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING, BUT IT TOO WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS JUST A BIT OVER FAR DOWNEAST MAINE WHILE KEEPING EXPECTED TOTALS ABOUT THE SAME FOR CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN MAINE. SOME AREAS OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES COULD APPROACH WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA (7 INCHES), BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE LOCALIZED, AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH- END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THESE LOCATIONS. OVERALL, EXPECT 4-7 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MARS HILL TO MILLINOCKET TO MILO. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST, WITH FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER, SO THE SNOW WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE DONE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY, WHERE STREAMERS OFF THE SAINT LAWRENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND WEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. MOST AREAS THOUGH WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 0F TO -10F OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION, TO 0 TO 10 ABOVE FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FEB WILL WRAP UP DRY AND COLD AS A MDT TO DEEP ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVR THE FA WITH STRONG SFC HI PRES ANCHORED WELL TO THE WSW OF OUR REGION. HI TEMPS...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...WILL BE COLDEST THU AND FRI WITH SOME MODERATION TO ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL ON SAT. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND FRI NGT MAY BE HELD UP SOME ACROSS THE SRN HLF OF THE FA BY CLDNSS FROM WEAK S/WV ENERGY ALF PASSING WELL S OF THE FA AND BY LGT BREEZE ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA GIVEN THE PSN OF THE SFC HI SW OF THE FA. THE BEST BET FOR LOWEST OVRNGT TEMPS WILL BE OVR BROAD NW VLY LCTNS CAPABLE OF DECOUPLING FROM ABV BL WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SAT NGT...THE CNTR OF THE LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HI WILL BE APCHG THE MID ATLC STATES COASTLINE. SKIES WILL BE CLR ACROSS THE FA...BUT A WEAK WSW WRLY BREEZE ALG WITH RECOVERING LATE NGT 925 MB TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER TRICKY FCST OF OVRNGT LOWS...WITH AGAIN... BROAD VLY LCTNS EXPERIENCING THE LOWEST TEMPS. SUN WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...WITH INCREASING CLDNSS LATE IN THE DAY AS WARM ADVCN AND MOISTURE OVRRNG FROM THE SW BEGINS TO APCH THE REGION FROM THE W. MODELS VARY ON THE IMPACT OF LGT OVRRNG SNFL THAT COULD IMPACT THE FA FROM LATE SUN EVE INTO ERLY MON MORN WITH A FAST MOVG S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS...WITH THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS EVENT QPF OF 0.10 N TO 0.25 INCHES DOWNEAST AND THE CANGEM THE LEAST SHOWING NO QPF. THE TREND OF THE 00Z GFS TNGT IS LESS THAN LAST NGT...SHOWING LITTLE OR NO QPF N AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH S. THEREFORE...WE LOWERED MAX POPS TO 30 PERCENT N AND 40 PERCENT S OVR OUR FA...AND FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ONLY A MENTION A CHC OF LGT SN...RATHER THEN SN. FOLLOWING THE S/WV ANY LGT SNFL TO THE REGION SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON DRY CONDITIONS LATER MON THRU TUE...BUT DISAGREE ON HOW COLD THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL BE BEHIND THE S/WV. FOR NOW WE RELIED ON THE SUPERBLEND TO BRIDGE THE TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 10Z AS SNOW SPREADS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL STAY MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND THEN IFR WILL BE LIKELY IN SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR 21Z-00Z AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AS SNOW STREAMERS OFF THE SAINT LAWRENCE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT. SHORT TO LONG TERM: ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THU THRU SUN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO TURN TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEY WILL REMAIN 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TO LONG TERM: OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PD OF MDT FZGSPY OVR MOST OF OUR WATERS THU MORN AND THU NGT AND NEAR SCA WV HTS ACROSS THE OUTER MZS THU MORN...NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. KEPT PRETTY CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002-005-006. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ011-031-032. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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