Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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961 FXUS61 KCAR 240121 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 921 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across the region this evening, followed by a cold front late tonight into Saturday. Another cold front will begin to cross the region later Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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9:21 PM Update...Showers continue to stream northeast from central Piscataquis County to northeast Aroostook County ahead of a warm front. There have not been any lightning strikes with any of the activity this evening. Some elevated convection is possible late this evening and overnight, but any thunder will likely be very isolated. The precipitable water on the 00z KCAR sounding was 1.70", which is a daily record and indicative of the deep moisture across the CWA. Any showers tonight will have the ability to produce heavy downpours. The Eastport AWOS has been reporting 1/4 mile visibility with a spotter report of dense fog along coastal Washington County. Issued a dense fog advisory for coastal Washington County earlier this evening which is in effect until 5 am Saturday morning. Only minor updates are planned based mainly on the latest observations, radar trends, and near term models and model trends. Previous discussion... Isolated thunderstorms and localized heavy rain still a threat for the remainder of this afternoon into the overnight. A warm front currently lies stretches from northern NY to extreme southern ME this afternoon. This boundary will continue to slowly trek northward overnight. Some clearing has occurred just ahead of the boundary, allowing thunderstorms to develop over central/southern New England. Our region has remained out of the sunshine and is therefore pretty stable, but can`t rule out a possible thunderstorm or two over the Bangor region through late afternoon. Thereafter, the focus will turn to northern Maine as elevated instability moves in, along with good warm air advection. PWATs will approach 2 inches, as well. The combination of these parameters will allow areas of moderate to locally heavy rain to cross from southwest to northeast overnight, with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder or two. The warm front will push through just about the entire region by late tonight, then a cold front will begin to make its way southward. This will shunt the steadiest activity southward toward the coast. With plentiful moisture around tonight, overnight lows will be on the uncomfortable side, mainly in the lower and mid 60s. As mentioned above, the cold front will be making its way southward through the state on Saturday. Expect showers will be focused over Downeast Maine by mid morning. These will push offshore during the afternoon hours. Breaks of sunshine will develop thereafter with a few showers lingering across the north. Highs will be warmer than today, mainly in the mid 70s to around 80, though winds will be a little breezy out of the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Progressive fast flow with below normal mid tropospheric pres hts alf will result in rapid chgs in sensible wx both in the short and long term. Any eve shwrs Sat eve should dissipate by erly Sun morn as an initial s/wv ridge alf builds from the W ovr the Rgn. This will be followed up by a fast movg s/wv trof alf for Sun aftn, resulting in a fair start Sun morn becoming ptly to msly cldy with sct shwrs/tstms in the aftn and eve. Whats left of the upper trof and a weak cold front will also result in sct shwrs and aftn tstms on Mon, but more so ovr Cntrl ptns of the Rgn tan the far N. Temps will be near to slightly below avg in the short term for this tm of season. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Other progressive s/wvs alf from E Cntrl Can will keep msly unsettled conditions for the Rgn msly for aftn and eve hrs for Tue and Wed where sct shwrs will have the greatest chc of occurrence. Most longer range models then indicate a more sig s/wv for Thu into Thu ngt from Cntrl Can accompanied by a surge of warmer air for the late week. Given rapid speed of s/wvs and tmg uncertainties, for now outside of high trrn, we kept max PoPs for any shwr activity in the hi chc range for now, with later fcst updates re-visiting the weighting of higher PoPs for specific s/wvs as they become closer in real tm. What can be said attm is that there does not look to be any lengthy rn pds, but also not much opportunity be to rn free for much greater than 12 hrs attm, spcly for the N hlf of the Rgn. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: LIFR to IFR the remainder of the night in low ceilings and fog. Showers will be most persistent at the northern terminals, and a thunderstorm or two can`t be ruled out. A cold front will cross the region on Saturday, bringing showers to an end and raising conditions to MVFR from north to south after 12z Sat. All sites to be MVFR or VFR by 18z Sat. SHORT TO LONG TERM: All TAF sites will mainly be VFR Sat ngt thru Wed, xcpt briefly MVFR clgs/vsbys attms in heavier shwrs and isold tstms.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect tonight. The wind and seas are below criteria this evening, but there are a couple of buoys with wind gusts around 25 knots to the south of our forecast waters, so will hold onto the advisory for now. The seas are only running around 2 ft, but may build some overnight ahead of a cold front. It is possible that the midnight shift might be able to drop the advisory earlier than the current expiration time of 8 AM, but with some stronger wind to our south will hold off on cancelling the advisory with this update. SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated for these ptns of the fcst attm, with wv hts ovr outer MZs decreasing from SCA thresholds Sat ngt. Went with 75 to 85 percent of WW3 wv guidance or fcst wv hts with primary wv pds will ranging from 5 to 7 sec.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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There is potential for very heavy downpours late this evening into the overnight along a slow moving warm frontal boundary. The highest risk at this time will be mostly north of a line from Dover- Foxcroft towards Houlton. Urban and small stream flooding are the risks as a half inch or more of rain could fall within a very short time.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...CB/Hastings Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/Hastings/Hastings Marine...CB/Hastings/Hastings Hydrology...Hastings

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