Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210937 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 537 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the area today. Low pressure will intensify across the maritimes Wednesday. High pressure will build across the region later Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A weakening cold front will move across the area this morning and stall in the southern portion of the forecast area this afternoon. There will be little or no precipitation with the cold front. Clouds with the front will move through northern zones this morning, but tend to linger in the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Highs will again reach the 40s as there`s not much cold air advection with the front at the surface. There will be cold air advection aloft today into this evening. The 21/00Z GFS is trying to pick up on that destabilization, but looks way overdone this afternoon. Prefer the ECMWF and NAM handling of the situation with the instability producing some showers for Bangor and the Down East region later this evening. This will coincide with low pressure moving over the state on its way to the Bay of Fundy and rapid intensification late tonight into Wednesday. This is a very dynamic situation as an upper level shortwave moving out of Quebec will amplify and start to develop a negative tilt by early Wednesday morning. What had been a relatively dry Arctic front will now pull in some Atlantic moisture and benefit from a relatively deep unstable layer. Snow will begin late tonight and have raised pops to likely after midnight. Arctic air will sweep into northwest portions of the forecast area by very late tonight as the low moves east of the state, but have raised tonight`s lows as the cyclogenesis has slowed its arrival. Temperatures along the coast will likely stay above freezing all night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Low pressure will intensify while exiting east across the maritimes Wednesday, wrapping snow back across mostly northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Generally expect total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across much of northern and eastern Maine through Wednesday with 1 to 2 inches across the remainder of the forecast area. The pressure gradient will also tighten between the intensifying low across the maritimes and high pressure to the west. North to northwest winds will increase to sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph Wednesday. These winds will produce areas of blowing snow across mostly northern and eastern portions of the region. Colder air will also be drawn across the region in the wake of the intensifying low. High temperatures will occur early Wednesday then fall through the afternoon. A chance of snow could persist across eastern portions of the forecast area early Wednesday night. High pressure will then begin to build east toward the region later Wednesday night with decreasing clouds. High pressure will build across the region later Thursday through Thursday night. Partly/mostly sunny skies are expected Thursday along with still gusty winds. Partly cloudy/mostly clear skies are expected Thursday night. High temperatures will occur early Wednesday then fall through the afternoon. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A warm front will cross the region early Friday, with a cold front Friday night. Snow/rain showers are possible across the region Friday, with a chance of snow showers Friday night. Otherwise, generally expect mostly cloudy skies Friday through Friday night. High pressure will build across the region later Saturday into Sunday. Expect mostly cloudy skies early Saturday, with decreasing clouds later Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will build north of the region Sunday into Monday, with low pressure tracking to the south Sunday night into Monday. Uncertainty still exists regarding the northern extent of the precipitation shield from the low due to high pressure to the north which could help suppress the low southward and block precipitation. Generally expect partly/mostly sunny skies Sunday. Have kept skies partly sunny across the region Monday along with only a slight chance of snow showers. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Friday, Saturday and Monday. Below normal level temperatures are expected Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Predominately VFR until late tonight when snow will drop vis to IFR or LIFR. SHORT TERM: MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected across the region Wednesday with snow and blowing snow. North to northwest winds will increase to sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph Wednesday. Occasional MVFR conditions are still possible early Wednesday night. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected across the region Wednesday night into early Friday. Gusty northwest winds will persist Wednesday night into Thursday. MVFR conditions could develop across the region later Friday then persist into early Saturday, with VFR conditions later Saturday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and the longer period south swell will diminish today through this evening. Winds will rapidly increase after daybreak on Wednesday. SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning has been issued for the waters from Wednesday morning into Thursday morning. Small craft advisory conditions are then expected later Thursday into Thursday night. Visibilities could be reduced in snow Wednesday. Light freezing spray is possible Wednesday afternoon. Moderate freezing spray is then expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross

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