Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBOX 060144
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
945 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

945 PM UPDATE...

JUST SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING.   WE ARE WATCHING A CLUSTER OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN PA.  MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WED AM...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THE HRRR AND SOME
OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS SKIRT OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
CT WITH A FEW SHOWERS.

ALL IN ALL...OUR THINKING IS BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL EITHER STAY SOUTH
OF OUR REGION AND RADAR ECHOES THAT MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION WILL
HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE GROUND.  WE INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...MAINLY FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A
SHOWER WITH BEST CHANCE FOR THAT IN NORTHERN CT.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S NORTH OF THE PIKE.  SOUTH OF THE
PIKE EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT
SURE IF IT WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO RESULT IN A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS ANY PORTION OF OUR REGION. BEST SHOT IS
NORTHERN CT...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO PART OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
FOR A SHORT TIME. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY ACROSS OUR REGION.

OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE. SO ONCE
THE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO
THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES TOWARD CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SW-FLOW USHERING ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND
 - PERHAPS SOME COASTAL ISSUES WITH MARINE STRATUS / FOG
 - INCREASING RAIN / THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 - CONCERN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES

*/ DISCUSSION...

ENSEMBLES SIGNAL A H5 RIDGING PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW-ATLANTIC.
ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY SW-FLOW OF WARM-MOIST AIR MAINTAINS AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING COOL FRONT WHICH BASED ON FORECAST CONSENSUS DRAGS INTO
S NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MOISTURE-INSTABILITY AXES FOCUS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS GENERATING A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MOIST-ADIABATIC THRU H7/ ALONG
THE FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WOULD LIKELY AID WITH DIURNALLY-
FORCED SHOWER-THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS H85-3 FLOW IS RATHER
WEAK AROUND 25 MPH ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW EVEN WEAKER. SO
WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND FORECAST PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES
WONDER WHETHER WE WILL SEE SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING ACTIVITY THAT
WARRANTS FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE FUTURE. THE WARM-CLOUD LAYER IS
OVER 10 KFT. COULD WE BE SEEING HEAVY-RAIN PROCESSES? LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING SHOULD SEE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY BEFOREHAND
OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD PROVIDE A HEADS-UP. WET-WEATHER CHANCES
INCREASING BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO
LIKELY POPS JUST YET. AS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THIS ASPECT AS WELL.

SOME INTANGIBLES: WHETHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BUCKLE THE SW-
FLOW IN ADDITION TO SEA-BREEZES /PENDING IF INTERIOR WINDS ARE
LIGHT/...AND FUTURE OUTCOMES OF SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA /AS TO HOW AND IF IT WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE FLOW
TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND/. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IT
MAY SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE COOL FRONT. APPEARS AS IF THE SLOWER
FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOULD BE FAVORED.

OTHERWISE: WARMER THAN AVERAGE. MAY BE CONTENDING WITH SOME MARINE
STRATUS / FOG AT TIMES AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR CROSSES OVER THE
COOLER WATERS ADVECTED BY THE SW-FLOW. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
LOCALES AROUND THE 90-DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT WINDS. DEPENDENT ON SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. SEA-
BREEZES DEVELOPING BY LATE-MORNING WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS MARINE-LAYER
STRATUS / FOG ISSUES AS WE GO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE S/SE-COASTLINE OF MA.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA-BREEZE ERODES INTO EARLY EVENING
AS FLOW TURNS LIGHT. WILL SEE RE-EMERGENCE TOWARDS LATE-MORNING
WEDNESDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. SW-FLOW. BREEZY AT TIMES. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR MARINE
STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-SHORELINE TERMINALS DURING OVERNIGHT -
MORNING PERIODS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA TOWARDS SUNDAY.
POSSIBLE TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT
BREEZY SW-FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF WHICH MARINE STRATUS / FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-SHORE-
LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. DRY FORECAST OVERALL
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY IF NOT INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY. WHILE WINDS
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE CONCERNED BY
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BIT MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK/NMB
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL/NMB
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL/NMB
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.