Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBOX 170844
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. DRY AND SLOWLY WARMING WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MA COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CRESTING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP OVER THE
WATERS KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM RADIATING OUT THIS
MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID
20S...WHICH IS ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SEVERAL SITES ARE
CLOSE TO HITTING THEIR RECORD LOW AS OF 400 AM. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TO SEE IF THEY DIP A FEW MORE DEGREES TO BREAK THEIR
RECORD.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARITIMES RESULTING IN A MORE
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE MA COASTLINE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH THE COOL MARITIME AIR ONSHORE RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE COASTLINE IN THE LOW 40S. A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS MAY MOVE
ONSHORE AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE INCREASING WITHIN THE COLUMN.
OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND`S WEATHER WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WHILE A STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL STAY SUPPRESSED. THIS SET-UP WILL
CONTINUE THE EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE MARITIME AIR ONSHORE.
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE
BEING TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION. FRIDAY ESPECIALLY LOOKS TO BE
A COLD AND DREARY DAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN TO THE
CAPE...INCLUDING BOSTON...DUE TO THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND
DRIZZLE.

OTHERWISE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TEMPS WILL RADIATE OUT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL DIP
AGAIN BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES
AS THE GROWING SEASON BEGINS ON THE 20TH OF APRIL. ON FRIDAY THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM UP WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH THE CT
VALLEY BEING THE WARM SPOT WHICH COULD MAKE A RUN TO 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* CLOUDS/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST AREAS FRI NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH MONDAY
* SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR TUE INTO WED

IN GENERAL THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. FROM LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SNEAKING HARMLESSLY OUT TO
SEA WELL TO OUR SOUTH. ON TUE...A NEW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPENS...FORMING A CUTOFF LOW OFF OF CAPE COD BY WED.
DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN THAT
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY KEEP
LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS FOG AND DRIZZLE OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS MARSHFIELD MA FRI
NIGHT...BEST INDICATED BY THE NAM LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS BUT ALSO
SEEN ON THE GFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER INLAND WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
SAT. WHILE A SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
TO PUT AN END TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...WITH LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF REMAINING DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE BRIGHT AND SUNNY
WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLER NEAR THE
COAST THOUGH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON
MONDAY WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES ANOTHER BOOST. 925 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH +8C TO +10C BY MONDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE...REACHING
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S EXCEPT 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE NO LONGER IS ANY RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS IS AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD
AND AMPLIFIES TUE...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SOMEWHERE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS
OCCURS EAST OF CAPE COD/NANTUCKET ON WED ALTHOUGH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL RUN IS FARTHER NORTH OFF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MILD WITH
SHOWERS A GOOD BET FROM LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT.
HAVE EXTENDED THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WED BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL RUN. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS COULD TURN INTO A
SOAKING RAIN... ESPECIALLY TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME OUR PROBABILITIES ONLY REFLECT 30-40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 WED. HAVE GONE WITH THIS...HOWEVER THE ECMWF 850 MB
TEMPS ARE ONLY +4C...WHICH IS COLDER THAN THE GFS +8C...SO IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WED MAX TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR. INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS. THERE
IS A RISK OF SCT LOW-VFR CIGS ACROSS EAST COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE...VFR TO START. CIGS MAY BUILD AND DROP
TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COASTLINE INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING THE CIGS ACROSS BOTH COASTLINES TO MVFR. THERE IS A LOW
PROB OF LOCALLY IFR AS WELL AS FOG AND DRIZZLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. VFR EXPECTED INLAND WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR IN AN ISOLATED SHOWER.

LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GUSTY WINDS...THE
SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT TO RELAX BELOW 5 FT. THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED
SCA ACCORDINGLY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW BEHIND A WEAK
LOW PRES TROUGH. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TO BELOW 5 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND A RETURN OF NORTHEAST WIND FLOW.
SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO JUST ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD.

MONDAY...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS EAST OF MA. THEY
COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE
ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...

THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AND SNOWMELT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS THE
MAINSTEM CT RIVER IN MINOR FLOOD...ALTHOUGH PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE FLOOD AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/FIELD
MARINE...DUNTEN/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF



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