Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 312239 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 639 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The remnant low pressure of Bonnie will continue to slowly move northeastward away from the region through Wednesday night. A weak cold front could then approach the region late in the week and become stationary this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Early evening update: Minor changes were made. Increased POPs for Tatnall, Long, and McIntosh counties. Strong thunderstorms just south of these locations could shift a little further north or backbuild along the seabreeze over the next hour. The storms to our south have caused wind damage, so any storms that develop or move into our area will have the same risk potential with the unstable atmosphere and high DCAPES. Also, trimmed back POPs a little across the Charleston Tri-County area to better reflect the latest radar trends. Other than some minor changes to the clouds and loading the current temperatures and dew points, everything else appears to be on track. The remnant low that was once TS Bonnie just offshore near the SC/NC border will continue to move northeast away from the area while a lingering trough stretches southward off the SC coast and then west into Georgia. The best rain chances should come through early evening, mainly north and east of Charleston and across southeast Georgia toward the Altamaha River. Otherwise there could be some fog toward daybreak Wednesday with lows around 70 most locales. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wednesday through Friday: The overall pattern will remain essentially unchanged in the mid to late week time period. Aloft, subtle ridging will become more prominent late in the week as an upper low develops across the southern plains. At the surface, very weak high pressure will settle in just offshore and extend westward into the forecast area. Overall, the result will be a somewhat typical early June pattern featuring scattered diurnal convection. The severe threat will be low each day thanks to the lack of any significant large scale forcing and unimpressive severe parameters noted in model soundings. However, we can never totally discount the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm, especially where boundary interactions occur. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows around 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Models in pretty good agreement through the long term period. Weak front stalled over the region will likely dissipate over the weekend, before another cold front approaches and crosses the area early next week. Typical diurnal convection expected, with perhaps greater coverage Sunday and Monday with the front in the vicinity. Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the period as the bulk of precipitation associated with the front shifts offshore and high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Temperatures mainly near normal. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly VFR. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm could impact the KCHS terminal early this evening, so we`re keeping VCTS in the TAF until 00Z. Then, late tonight low ceilings and/or fog could bring MVFR, or maybe even brief IFR. Confidence is not yet high enough to include in either TAF. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Low risk for flight restrictions from mainly afternoon showers/thunderstorms and early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds will generally be 10 kt or less through sunrise Wednesday while seas should be 2 to 3 ft...highest well off the Charleston County where a few 4 footers cannot be ruled out this morning. Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will gradually set up just east of the local waters on Wednesday and will remain in place into the weekend. This will promote persistent southerly flow through Friday that will be less than 15 kt. Pressure gradient will begin to tighten over the weekend as the coastal waters become sandwiched between high pressure to the east and an approaching front to the west. South/southwest winds will increase as a result, but conditions are still expected to stay well below small craft advisory criteria. Seas are expected to remain in the 1 to 3 ft range through the period. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...BSH LONG TERM...ECT AVIATION...BSH/RJB MARINE...BSH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.