Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KCHS 312239
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
639 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
The remnant low pressure of Bonnie will continue to slowly move
northeastward away from the region through Wednesday night. A weak
cold front could then approach the region late in the week and
become stationary this weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Early evening update: Minor changes were made. Increased POPs for
Tatnall, Long, and McIntosh counties. Strong thunderstorms just
south of these locations could shift a little further north or
backbuild along the seabreeze over the next hour. The storms to
our south have caused wind damage, so any storms that develop
or move into our area will have the same risk potential with the
unstable atmosphere and high DCAPES. Also, trimmed back POPs a
little across the Charleston Tri-County area to better reflect the
latest radar trends. Other than some minor changes to the clouds
and loading the current temperatures and dew points, everything
else appears to be on track.
The remnant low that was once TS Bonnie just offshore near the
SC/NC border will continue to move northeast away from the area
while a lingering trough stretches southward off the SC coast and
then west into Georgia. The best rain chances should come through
early evening, mainly north and east of Charleston and across
southeast Georgia toward the Altamaha River. Otherwise there
could be some fog toward daybreak Wednesday with lows around 70
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday through Friday: The overall pattern will remain
essentially unchanged in the mid to late week time period. Aloft,
subtle ridging will become more prominent late in the week as an
upper low develops across the southern plains. At the surface, very
weak high pressure will settle in just offshore and extend westward
into the forecast area. Overall, the result will be a somewhat
typical early June pattern featuring scattered diurnal convection.
The severe threat will be low each day thanks to the lack of any
significant large scale forcing and unimpressive severe parameters
noted in model soundings. However, we can never totally discount the
potential for an isolated strong to severe storm, especially where
boundary interactions occur. Highs are forecast to be in the upper
80s to low 90s with overnight lows around 70.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models in pretty good agreement through the long term period. Weak
front stalled over the region will likely dissipate over the weekend,
before another cold front approaches and crosses the area early
next week. Typical diurnal convection expected, with perhaps
greater coverage Sunday and Monday with the front in the vicinity.
Tuesday looks to be the driest day of the period as the bulk of
precipitation associated with the front shifts offshore and high
pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Temperatures
mainly near normal.
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm could impact the
KCHS terminal early this evening, so we`re keeping VCTS in the TAF
until 00Z. Then, late tonight low ceilings and/or fog could bring
MVFR, or maybe even brief IFR. Confidence is not yet high enough
to include in either TAF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Low risk for flight
restrictions from mainly afternoon showers/thunderstorms and early
Tonight: Winds will generally be 10 kt or less through sunrise
Wednesday while seas should be 2 to 3 ft...highest well off the
Charleston County where a few 4 footers cannot be ruled out this
Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will gradually set up just
east of the local waters on Wednesday and will remain in place into
the weekend. This will promote persistent southerly flow through
Friday that will be less than 15 kt. Pressure gradient will begin to
tighten over the weekend as the coastal waters become sandwiched
between high pressure to the east and an approaching front to the
west. South/southwest winds will increase as a result, but
conditions are still expected to stay well below small craft
advisory criteria. Seas are expected to remain in the 1 to 3 ft
range through the period.