Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KCHS 262322
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
722 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016
A cold front will dissipate south of our area into Monday.
Another cold front will impact the area beginning Tuesday,
becoming nearly stationary into Wednesday, then dissipating
through the end of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Mainly isolated showers/thunderstorms will continue into the
evening, mainly across southeast GA, as the sea breeze pushes
inland. No severe storms are expected given weak instability/forcing.
Otherwise, conditions will remain favorable for at least localized
stratus/fog overnight. Temperatures should bottom out around 70
inland with mid to upper 70s at the coast.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The upper air pattern will consist of a
ridge over the intermountain west, with a high near the Four Corners
region. The southern and eastern periphery of this ridge will
stretch into the southeastern states during the day. These impacts
will lessen at night as a trough builds over the Great Lakes region.
At the surface, a cold front will be dissipating to our south Monday
morning while another cold front stretching across the Appalachians
slowly approaches during the day. Convection will be limited thanks
to warm mid levels and very dry mid and upper levels. We are
maintaining slight chance POPs, but any showers and thunderstorms
that develop are expected to be on the weaker end of the spectrum.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. The overnight is
forecast to be dry as the aforementioned front approaches from the
northwest. Lows will be in the mid 70s.
Tuesday through Wednesday: The synoptic pattern will consist of a
trough over the east coast. Mid level waves are forecasted to move
through the trough both days, but these waves should be limited to
the Great Lakes and New England regions. At the surface, a weakening
cold front will slowly push into the area from the west/northwest
Tuesday afternoon. Increasing moisture and lift will result in an
uptick in convection. For now, we have chance POPs, but this might
need to be increased if the models continue to be in good agreement.
Wednesday a second cold front will catch up with and merge with the
first one. This resultant front appears to become stationary near or
just northwest of our area. The plentiful moisture and lift will
continue the convection across our area. High end chance POPs remain
in place, but again this might need to be nudged upwards depending
on the location of the front and the general model agreement. Highs
will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s both days while lows
will be in the mid 70s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The pattern aloft in the long term will feature a large ridge in the
west and a broad trough in the east. The southern extent of the
trough will brush the forecast area through late weekend and into
the weekend, while the surface front continues to linger in the
vicinity as well. This should result in a more active regime which
will favor at least mid to high end chance pops each period through
the start of the weekend. Temperature will remain in the near normal
range with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions through 00Z/27. However, there is a low risk
of flight restrictions due to showers early this evening and fog
and/or stratus toward daybreak.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible from
afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday.
Otherwise, VFR will prevail.
Tonight: The sea breeze circulation will give way to lighter E/NE
winds most areas. Wind direction across GA waters remains somewhat
uncertain due to the proximity of the stalling/dissipating cold
front. Otherwise, seas as high as 3-4 ft near shore waters and 4-5
ft beyond 20 nm this evening will subsiding to 2-3 ft near shore
and 3-4 ft beyond 20 nm overnight.
Monday through Friday: Overall the pattern will favor relatively
quiet conditions across the local waters for much of the upcoming
week. Winds will start off more northeast or easterly on Monday as a
weak surface trough lingers to the east. The flow will then become
more south to southwest through late week as a front approaches from
the west and then lingers in the vicinity. Winds are expected to be
15 knots or less, strongest along the land/sea interface each
afternoon with the development of the sea breeze. Seas will
generally be 1-3 feet, highest beyond 20 nm.