Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 280215 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1015 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure along with an inland trough will prevail into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight as expansive high pressure holds firm. 28/02Z temperatures were running about 1-2 degs warmer than 24 hours ago so nudged overnight lows up a degree or so most locations. Lows will range from mid-upper 70s inland to the lower 80s at the coast with some beach locations likely remaining in the mid 80s. It will feel downright oppressive at the coast through the night where upper 70 dewpoints should keep heat indices above 90 degs through sunrise. The record high minimums for 28 July could be challenged, especially at the Charleston Airport and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend westward over the forecast area while a trough persists inland. This pattern will maintain warmer than normal temperatures with highs generally in the upper 90s inland but even near 90 at the coast. Heat indices will peak around 105 degrees for most areas each afternoon, although could briefly reach near 110 near the coast as the sea breeze pushes inland. Unfortunately there will not be much relief at night either with lows in the mid to upper 70s most places and closer to 80 at the coast. Showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between with the best chances coming Saturday when some deeper moisture approaches from the northwest. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... West-southwesterly low level flow keeps a warm and humid airmass in place through the long term period. Increasingly unsettled weather will ensue as the ridge continues to slide off the Southeast coast and deep-layer moisture increases early next week. Global model solutions begin to diverge significantly heading into the middle of next week as a deteriorating cold front may approach the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. POPs have been increased well into the chance range, especially north of I-16, to account for this. Temps will remain at least a few degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be possible with afternoon showers/thunderstorms this weekend. && .MARINE... Tonight: The deep layer ridge and Atlantic surface high pressure will bring south to southwest winds averaging 15-20kt this evening and overnight. Seas will average 2-3 ft nearshore waters and building to 3-4 ft offshore waters. Thursday through Monday: Atlantic high pressure will prevail along with an inland trough. This pattern will favor south to southwest winds that will gust near Advisory levels /25 knots/ at times, mainly along/off the Charleston County coast during late afternoon/evening due to the sea breeze. Seas mostly 3 feet or less, but 4 feet at times near the Gulf Stream. && .CLIMATE... Record high minimums for 28 July: KCHS: 80 set in 2014... KCXM: 83 set in 1999... KSAV: 81 set in 1878... && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ST

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