Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000 FXUS62 KCHS 261046 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 646 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail across the region today and tonight. A weak disturbance is expected to affect the area Thursday night, followed by high pressure Friday into the weekend. A cold front will affect the area Monday and Monday night before high pressure rebuilds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 645 AM: Satellite and sfc observations indicated a few areas of patchy inland fog early this morning. However, I expect that the fog is very thin and will dissipate over the next hour. I will adjust mention of patchy fog in the forecast. Otherwise, today should remain dry with highs around 5 degrees above normal. As of 450 AM: Latest satellite images indicated a patch of mid clouds moving across Berkeley and east Charleston Counties. After the patch moves east out of the forecast area, sky should remain clear through the rest of the morning. I will update to mainly adjust cloud placement and timing. Previous Discussion: Mid level short wave ridge will ripple over the forecast area this afternoon. At the sfc, the CWA will remain between organizing low pressure over Arkansas and high pressure over the western Atlantic. The pressure pattern will provide the region with strengthening SSE flow through this afternoon, peaking between 10-15 mph during the heat of the afternoon. The combination of SSE flow and high temps well into the mid to upper 80s inland should yield a sea breeze this afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate that a strong inversion will remain centered around H7, with CIN remain through this afternoon. Based on the forecast moisture and temperature profile, it appears that Cu will remain very limited this afternoon. Tonight, sfc low pressure will track across the Heartland, sweeping the associated cold front across middle TN by sunrise Thursday. Return flow across the CWA will remain steady through the overnight hours. Overall, sky conditions are expected to remain clear to mostly clear. However, higher clouds should begin to arrive from the west during the pre dawn hours. Using a blend of temperature guidance, low temperatures should range in the low to mid 60s, with upper 60s across the sea islands.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strengthening high pressure over the central Atlantic and a digging shortwave trough over the Ohio Valley will allow increasing moisture to move into the area. Weak upper forcing associated with the shortwave and a decaying cold front may kick off a few showers or thunderstorms, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening across inland areas. Otherwise, a building upper ridge with strong warm advection will favor a warming trend with highs climbing into the 90s across inland areas Friday and Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The pattern shifts during the long term as a large upper trough shifts east and a cold front sweeps through Monday and Monday night. A few showers possible inland on Sunday as some upper vorticity energy moves through, but the best rain chances will be Monday and Monday night. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR through the 12Z TAFs. Extended Aviation Outlook: No significant concerns.
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&& .MARINE... Today, at the sfc, the marine zones will remain between organizing low pressure over Arkansas and high pressure over the western Atlantic. The pressure pattern will provide the region with strengthening SSE flow through this afternoon, peaking around 15 kts during the heat of the afternoon. Return flow should remain steady over the waters tonight, turning from the SSW. Wave heights within 20 nm are forecast to remain between 2-3 feet, increasing to 3-4 feet beyond 20 nm tonight. A summertime pattern will prevail Thursday into Sunday as Atlantic high pressure maintains onshore flow and a sea breeze develops each afternoon. Strengthening southeast flow ahead of a cold front Monday will likely result in Small Craft Advisory seas over most of the waters starting Sunday night and persisting into Monday night. Rip Currents...The combination of swell impacting the beaches, an afternoon sea breeze, and the upcoming Perigean Spring Tide will generate a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The upcoming Perigean Spring Tide and recent elevated departures will allow for potential shallow coastal flooding with the evening high tides today through Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be required. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...JRL/NED MARINE...JRL/NED TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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