Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 142027 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 327 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak ridge of high pressure over the local area will weaken tonight. Low pressure will move east across the northern Great Lakes Friday. A trailing cold front will extend south from the low as it moves east across the local area Friday. A warm front will lift north across the area Saturday as another low pressure system moves into the central Great Lakes and weakens. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A cluster of lake effect snow showers continues to move east across northeast Ohio toward northwest Pennsylvania. The mean flow will gradually shift to a northwest and then westerly direction through the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours. Once the band sets up along the lake shore, there is the potential for more accumulating snow along the lake shore tonight. As the band shifts out over the lake Friday, a cold front will approach from the west. An swath of light snow will push southeast into the forecast area Friday afternoon with the best moisture and dynamics occurring over the eastern half of the forecast area. Snow accumulations during the day Friday and Friday night will be an inch or less in the western half of the area. Higher accumulations will take place in the northeast snowbelt as lake enhancement plays a role accumulating snow. Extreme western portions of the area like Toledo and Findlay will be less than an inch as mentioned and will see mostly a wind shift with the cold front. Temperatures will be a bit tricky tonight. Upstream over Michigan, temperatures plummeted to well below 0 degrees last night as skies cleared out in the wake of the low pressure. 850 MB temperatures dropped to -16 degrees over that area and cold air took place in that area. We are seeing clearing skies across the area tonight and I anticipate temperatures to plummet in the western half of the forecast area as the sun begins to set. I have temperatures dropping to around 10 degrees by 03z this evening over Toledo and Findlay and then leveling off. A similar drop will take a bit longer over the rest of the forecast area tonight. Keep in mind, some 850 MB warm air advection will take place up to -14 and winds will be west southwest. So, I don`t anticipate the drops they had northwest of here to occur tonight. Highs will be quite a bit warmer Friday and Friday night as the cold arctic air lifts out and air mass behind cold front is not expected to be as cold. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A front will stall across Lake Erie Saturday and gradually lift northeast as a warm front. The GFS is faster at moving the front east while the ECMWF is slower. Isentropic lift associated with the front will produce some light snow mainly over the eastern portion of the forecast area. The upper flow will become more southwesterly on Sunday and move a short wave northeast toward the region as temperatures moderate. 850 mb temperatures warm to near or above freezing so mainly light liquid precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue Sunday night as the weak disturbance quickly exits the region. Above normal temperatures are expected Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Good amount of uncertainty remains for the forecast next week, with GFS/ECMWF differences resulting in pop/p-type and temperature differences. Monday starts out with a surge of warmer air moving north across the region, with highs expected to reach 40 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Weak vort max pushing southeast across the Great Lakes will curtail the ridging, and may be a focus for some precip Monday and Monday night, although model signals are weak and inconsistent. GFS is much more energetic as with a cold front moving through Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing widespread precip to the area changing from rain to snow. However, ECMWF remains split with the energy north and south of the region, and keeps the area relatively dry through this time frame. Will keep low chance pops in for this time frame, albeit with little confidence. Temperatures will turn cooler for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, but still around normal for this time of year. High pressure will build back into the area Wednesday night through Thursday, with a warming trend expected and mainly dry conditions, aside from any lingering lake effect snow across the snow belt. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... Lake effect snow showers continue to move across Cleveland, Akron-Canton, and Youngstown at this time. Mean wind flow continues to shift toward a westerly and then southwesterly direction and this will push the scattered snow shower activity up the lake to the northeast. As the snow showers end from west to east, ceilings will improve as well. This will be short lived as a low pressure system moves east into the central Great Lakes forcing a cold front east across the area on Friday. The low and front will bring a swath of light snow to the area at the very end of the forecast period. Expecting MVFR conditions with the snow tomorrow afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR possible Friday night across the area and again Sunday night into Monday. MVFR also possible in northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Tranquil conditions are expected tonight as high pressure slips by to the east. The pressure gradient will increase Friday as west to southwest winds increase. A small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Friday afternoon which will continue until Saturday afternoon as the next clipper moves by well to the north. A front will stall near the lake Saturday evening and lift northeast on Sunday as a warm front. The front will lift farther northeast early next as high pressure builds over the southeast states. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...LaPlante LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...LaPlante

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