Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 200355 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1155 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate the weather through the weekend. A cold front will cross the local area Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure was building over the Ohio Valley and Appalachians tonight and winds were becoming light and variable in most areas. Lows should drop into the 40s in most areas with some upper 30s in the colder spots. No changes for the overnight update. Original NEAR TERM discussion... A weak cold front has just about pushed southeast of the area. Other than a few high clouds and and a slight wind shift there is little evidence of the front. High pressure will build back across the area and dominate into the start of the weekend. As a result skies will remain mostly clear to clear. By midday tomorrow the local area will be west of the surface ridge which will allow southerly flow to return. That should help warm temps up a couple of degrees from today. Have used a blend of guidance for low temps the next couple of nights. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The area will get to enjoy the last few days of warmer than normal temps before major pattern changes take place for the middle of next week. The cold front still looks on track to push east to be near the far NW corner of the CWA by late Sun night before stalling as a wave of low pressure starts to ride NNE along the front on Mon. Sun should mostly stay dry but there is a chc a few shra could sneak into the western fringe by the end of the day. A better chc for shra will spread east into the area Sun night and more so on Mon as the wave moving along the front provides better dynamics for precip development. Highs Sat and Sun in the low to mid 70s will start to cool some into the mid 60s to lower 70s for Mon as clouds and shra limit the temp rise by then. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front will likely be across the area Monday night as the trough amplifies with a significant portion of shortwave energy making its way down across the mid Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states. Just as is the case with the first trough to come across the central U.S. over the weekend, it is unclear as to how much energy peels away resulting in split flow toward mid week. Broadly speaking, though, the trend is for ridging to be working across the western Great Lakes by Thursday. Therefore there will be a several day period of precip chances focused around the front Monday night into Tuesday and then with cool cyclonic flow off of the lake Tuesday into Wednesday. Allowed for improving weather for Thursday. Temperatures will be running much cooler than recently. Highs in the lower 60s Tuesday will be replaced by mid 50s for Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for sub-40 degree lows come Wednesday night and Thursday especially if we can get rid of the cloud cover. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
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VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as high pressure remains over the Great Lakes. Only cirrus shield to deal with today. Light SW winds will turn to the S by daybreak. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in shra Sunday night through Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... As of 945 PM, the significant wave height off Presque Isle (Erie, PA) was down to 3.8 feet and falling. Wind speeds were continuing to diminish. Will go ahead and cancel the small craft advisory. Original MARINE Discussion... The marginal SCA conditions east of Cleveland will be settling down tonight as high pressure spreads back north into the lake. South winds mainly under 15 knots should tend to prevail thru Sun. A cold front slowly working east across the lake with a wave of low pressure moving along the front will lead to changeable winds Mon that should line up out of the W to NW for Tue and increase enough for an SCA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Kubina NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Kubina SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...DJB MARINE...Adams

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