Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 291742 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 142 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front near the Ohio Valley will move north across the area late tonight and Sunday morning. Deepening low pressure over the plains will move north to Wisconsin Monday and Ontario on Tuesday. The associated cold front will move across the local area on Monday. Cooler and blustery weather will spread across the area behind the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... One more try to get the temperatures better for the afternoon update. Used the current temperatures and blended them mostly with the HRRR to get the hourly/max temperature forecast for this afternoon. No other significant changes for the afternoon forecast. Morning updated discussion... Wave on the front will continue to spread rain and embedded thunderstorms across the area late this morning into the early afternoon with lesser amounts of rain farther north. Mentioned fog along the Lake Erie lakeshore since dew points are high relative to the lake temp. The majority of the showers should taper off mid afternoon as the wave moves east. The temperatures gradient is tight with upper 40s and lower 50s along the immediate lakeshore gradually warming as one heads south with 60s from around Mount Vernon south. Temps will not recover much with the north wind this afternoon although we cloud drift up a few degrees when the rain ends. Tried to adjust the hourly forecast temperatures and the high temperature to capture the tight gradient as best as I could. No other changes for the late morning update. Original "Today" discussion... Tough forecast today with precip timing and coverage a real challenge. Had hoped to find some windows of dry weather today but that will be tough to do. Southern areas especially will see good chances for more showers with embedded thunder as the surface warm front remains near the I-70 corridor. All of the guidance shows another wave of precipitation developing along the front well southwest of here by daybreak. This blob for lack of a better term should then slide east across the local area this morning. There could be a sharp cutoff of the precip on the north side but not confident enough to forecast that. Will end up with likely or higher pops all areas today. The warm front will try to edge it`s way north into the area by late today. This will result in a fairly substantial temperature gradient across the area. Have stayed fairly close to guidance. Northeast flow off of the lake will result in a chilly day across the immediate lakeshore. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The warm front will advance north across the area tonight and by daybreak Sunday it should be gone. It will take precip chances with as it goes. Will need to leave a mention in all areas this evening but will begin to dry things out from the south late tonight. Most of the day Sunday should be dry. Have left some 20 pops in much of the area for coordination purposes but would really be surprised to see any precip except across NW OH later in the day. The clouds should also thin some during the day with partial sunshine likely...especially in the south. 850 mb temps will get to plus 17 much of the area so highs well into the 80s seem reasonable. Precip chances will increase from west to east Sunday as the cold front from the low off to the NW advances across the area. Not sure how far east this precip will get by daybreak Monday but at least the western half of the area will see precip tomorrow night. Even in the far east chances are worth a mention prior to 12z Mon. The surface cold front should be near I-75 at daybreak and will move into western PA around 21z. Showers are likely till the front crosses the area. By daybreak Tuesday 850 mb temps will be back below zero Celsius so there is going to be a dramatic airmass change. Instability showers are likely Monday night all areas and downwind of the lake Tuesday into Tuesday night. Given the changing airmasses during the period have stayed close to guidance temps which are in decent agreement. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Period will be characterized by below to near normal temps as broad eastern CONUS trough will hold in place late next week. Deepening wave will eject and close off from the southern Plains through the eastern CONUS. Models still vary quite a bit with cutoff upper low/surface low development and track, as well as temperature profile. Generally kept pops and temps similar to previous forecast, however did bump pops up to likely along and south of an Upper Sandusky to Meadville PA line as converging model solutions yield higher confidence. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
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Rain is moving northeast across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania early this afternoon. Expect this rain to move out of the area entirely by 20-21Z. Within the heavier rain showers, IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected. Western areas will likely clear to VFR later this afternoon, with MVFR/IFR conditions remaining most other locations. Everywhere drops back to MVFR/IFR conditions tonight with areas of fog. A warm front will lift north through the region Sunday morning into early afternoon. This will turn winds to the south and they will become gusty. VFR conditions expected everywhere except at KERI by 15-18Z Sunday. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR and scattered showers possible Monday through Tuesday night.
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&& .MARINE... Cold front will sink south across Lake Erie early this morning. Winds will pick up out of the north to around 10-15 knots this afternoon across the western half of the lake. Winds will back northeasterly tonight into early Sunday as low pressure deepens and approaches the lake from the southwest. Winds may reach 20-25 kts but gales are not expected. The low will force a warm front north across the lake Sunday with winds backing southerly and eventually southwesterly by Monday afternoon as a cold front through. Gales are possible across the lake on Tuesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146>149. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>145. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kosarik NEAR TERM...Kosarik SHORT TERM...Kubina LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Mottice MARINE...Greenawalt

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