Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 241710 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1210 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move across the Ontario today. Low pressure over the Southern Plains will deepen as it moves to the western Great Lakes tonight. This will allow a warm front to lift into northern Ohio late today. As the low moves across Ontario into Quebec on Sunday it will pull a cold front across the region. High pressure will move overhead for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A band of moderate rain has set up over cwa generally stretching from Crawford county PA WSW to the Marion OH area. As the first wave of upper energy moves off the east, the band of rain over the cwa should break up the rest of the afternoon. As the deeper area of low pressure lifts into the western Great Lakes tonight it will lift a warm front into northern Ohio which will become the focus for the steady rainfall this evening into the overnight. There is concern that some convective showers, maybe some thunder, could develop toward sunrise on Sunday with increased rainfall rates. This will need to be monitored. So the time period of greatest concern for flooding will be the overnight hours into mid morning on Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible across an area that is already very wet. This is expected to cause some flooding. So we have issued a flood watch for locations near and south of a line from Findlay to Meadville. The main rivers of concern are those that are part of the Ohio River drainage basin. The cold front and rainfall should be east of the county warning area by early afternoon on Sunday. It will be windy ahead of and in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Wind gusts may reach 35 to 40 mph on Sunday. Todays highs will range from the lower 40s across NW Ohio to around 50 across southern portions of the region. Coolest temperatures tonight will be during the evening hours then warming through the night. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the 50s to around 60.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level ridge over the southeastern United States will continue to tilt out over the Atlantic Ocean away from the forecast area. This will allow a positively tilted trough to rotate into the forecast area Sunday night and then race off the east coast by Monday night. A broad ridge will develop over the eastern two thirds of the United States Tuesday. This period looks like it will remain dry as surface high pressure builds east over the forecast area and then southeast. Temperatures will see a gradual warm up as warm air advection takes place Monday into Monday into Tuesday on the west side of the high pressure. Winds will become light southwest through the forecast period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Big change comes Wednesday into Friday as upper level ridge begins to pull out to the east allowing a vigorous upper level trough to dig southeast to the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will in turn develop a coastal upper level low pressure system forcing the upper level jet stream south across the forecast area by Friday. The southern stream storm system appears it cold very well be the dominant weather feature that intensifies as it moves east. This is in response to the upper level low moving southeast to the coast. An axis of moisture from the surface low pressure system northwest across the forecast area to a weak low pressure system will bring another round of rain to the local area. The rain is expected to arrive over the area Wednesday and will continue into Thursday. Upper level jet stream will usher in some colder air by Thursday night and a possibility of a mix of snow and rain. Temperatures recover back to the 40s again Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Expect mostly MVFR with patches of IFR to persist until a cold front sweeps east across the area the end of tonight and Sunday morning ending the widespread shra and isolated tsra from west to east and scattering the clouds. The lesser threat for tsra will be at TOL. Mainly NE winds will turn to the south tonight and increase to be gusting 22 to 32 knots late tonight and Sunday morning while then veering to the WSW with the passage of a cold front. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in rain and low ceilings Wed and Thu.
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&& .MARINE... Winds will gradually increase today through Sunday and become west southwest pushing 30 knots by Sunday. Not expecting winds to reach gales at this time. However, winds on the lake diminish fairly quickly Sunday night as low pressure lifts northeast of the area allowing weak high pressure to build into the area. Otherwise, generally light flow is expected on the lake through Wednesday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ017-020-027>031- 036>038-047. Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OHZ021>023-032-033. PA...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for PAZ003. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Mullen NEAR TERM...Mullen/Adams SHORT TERM...Lombardy LONG TERM...Lombardy AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Lombardy

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