Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 250505 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 105 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of troughs will cross the region between Sunday and Monday bringing us below normal temperatures. High pressure will take hold for mid week with more seasonable temperatures to end the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Vort axis that dropped se into the cwa is aiding diurnal convection but still think it will soon dissipate as airmass cools now that the sun has set. Likewise, most of the diurnal cumulus will be soon dissipating leaving skies mostly clear to locally partly cloudy for a good part of the night. As upper s/w trough for tomorrow nears, clouds, then a few showers may start to develop in the snowbelt prior to 6 am. Overall coverage looks to be low, thus will only carry slight chc pop. Lows will drop into the 50s tonight, except some lower 60s along the immediate lakeshore from Cleveland thru Erie PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A broad trough will be the main feature across the region for the remainder of the weekend and into Monday. This will yield temperatures that will be running upwards of 10 degrees below normal. Upper vort max spiraling across MN today will make its way across the lower lakes for Sunday. With its close proximity expecting shower development/isolated thunderstorms from north- central OH eastward. Main feature will likely pass early enough in the day that western areas will remain dry. Highs will be within a few degrees of 70 with breezy winds. By Sunday night temperatures aloft will definitely be cool enough for a lake enhancement scenario, but with the area between troughs/local ridging, did not want to go too high on precip chances across the snowbelt. In fact unsure how much activity we will have Monday morning with the next trough still north across the lakes until late afternoon. Have a large area of likely precip chances or better from Cleveland and Youngstown eastward as instability showers/ts will flare up by afternoon. There will be more upper 60s for highs and fewer 70s Monday. High pressure and ridging work eastward for Tuesday. Lingering showers east early and temperatures beginning to rebound across the west. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... For the second day in a row haven`t made many changes. Wednesday is still looking dry. The area will just be getting in the warmer southerly flow on the backside of the surface ridge. Southwesterly flow will then continue for a few days with lower level moisture steadily increasing. The new guidance continues to be in fair agreement with the low set to move over the western lakes late next week. The warm front from the low could begin to kick off a few showers and storms as early as Thursday. Have removed all mention from Wednesday night. Precip chances will then be needed into the weekend as surface dewpoints eventually make the upper 60s. Temperatures will be seasonable. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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A few showers may develop late this morning into early this afternoon across exteme northeast Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. These could affect KERI, so have included a PROB30 for the time being. While an isolated shower is also possible as far west as KCAK, probability is too low to include in the TAFs. VFR cumulus will develop again on Sunday afternoon, likely becoming broken (050) in the afternoon/evening across eastern areas. Brief MVFR conditions possible in any shower. West winds will become gusty again on Sunday with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. OUTLOOK...Chance of isolated MVFR in showers Monday into Tuesday morning with a trough aloft.
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&& .MARINE... Even though the buoys continue to report conditions below small craft criteria have been getting human reports of 5 foot waves. Have gone ahead and put up a small craft through the evening. Another small craft will likely be needed tomorrow as westerly winds should be even stronger. Mainly westerly flow will continue through Monday evening. A cold front will cross the lake early Tuesday flipping the flow to the northwest or north. It`s not looking like winds will be strong enough for small craft conditions behind this front. A surface ridge will cross the lake Tuesday night with southerly winds finally returning. South to southwest flow will then continue through the end of the period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Adams/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Kubina AVIATION...Mottice MARINE...Kosarik/Kubina is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.