Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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256 FXUS61 KCLE 302244 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 644 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front tracks through tonight into early Tuesday. High pressure will build into the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another cold front will move through the area early Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Scattered convection across the region is working to increase in coverage for the afternoon and evening hours as southwest flow aloft becomes more active ahead of a cold front tonight. Low level moisture advection on the increase during this time frame with a budding low level jet over the eastern CWA this afternoon, and have some concerns going forward on this moisture converging in terms of multiple rounds of storms over western Pennsylvania. Have added a Flood Watch to this area as a result. Should have decent progression of individual storms and clusters, and mainly concerned with repeated hits to the same area through early tonight. As has been the case much of the last week to ten days, have a high PWAT atmosphere and also a relatively wet recent history for the area. Rapid update models are hinting at a lull in the action early tonight before additional storms with the cold front come through towards morning. This may be more of a southern Ohio issue late tonight, however. Cold front through the CWA Tuesday morning, but some convection could fire up again along the southeastern fringe of the CWA with the upper trough axis trailing behind. Otherwise, high pressure will settle into the southern Great Lakes and the forecast ultimately dries out completely later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Not a huge change in the airmass, with only about 2-4 degrees cooler and the same change for the dewpoints. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure influences will fairly rapidly exit the CWA Wednesday night with another cold front entering the picture from the northwest, through the CWA by early Thursday afternoon. Low POPs with this cold front. Upper level ridging builds back in over the Mississippi Valley Thursday into Thursday night with surface high pressure over the lower Ohio Valley. Airmass modification leads to a slight uptick in temperatures from Wednesday into Thursday, as temperatures overall remain slightly above normal across the region. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure shifts east, and puts the CWA in return flow and back into the warm sector as low pressure tracks from the northern plains towards James Bay in Canada. Probably back into the lower 90s for many areas at this point for the weekend, ahead of a late weekend cold front. POPs through the long term overall are on the lower side. Likely cooler into Monday in the wake of yet another cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
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Convection will gradually come to an end this evening and become far more isolated during the overnight hours. Development is possible again towards the 10-15Z time frame Tuesday for the southern terminals, but the main batch of convective activity should be mostly south of the area and will only carry VCSH for that particular time frame. FEW-SCT cumulus field develops Tuesday FL035-050 with winds becoming west northwesterly behind a cold front coming through tonight at 10-15kts. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected through Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... A warm front has lifted north of the lake this morning, allowing for winds to shift and become southwest at 5-10 knots. These conditions will persist today until a cold front moves east tonight into Tuesday. During the shift from southwest to more west-northwesterly, winds will briefly increase up to 15 knots. By Tuesday morning, these winds will persist with onshore flow resulting in waves building to 1-3 feet across the central and eastern lakeshores. High pressure building in behind the departing front will allow for winds to gradually weaken once again to 5-10 knots through Wednesday night. Another cold front is expected to arrive on Thursday, once again shifting winds to have a more northerly component. No marine headlines are anticipated through the next week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...26 MARINE...04/Kahn