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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 250505
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
105 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of troughs will cross the region between Sunday and
Monday bringing us below normal temperatures. High pressure
will take hold for mid week with more seasonable temperatures to
end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Vort axis that dropped se into the cwa is aiding diurnal convection
but still think it will soon dissipate as airmass cools now that the
sun has set. Likewise, most of the diurnal cumulus will be soon
dissipating leaving skies mostly clear to locally partly cloudy for
a good part of the night.

As upper s/w trough for tomorrow nears, clouds, then a few showers
may start to develop in the snowbelt prior to 6 am. Overall coverage
looks to be low, thus will only carry slight chc pop.

Lows will drop into the 50s tonight, except some lower 60s along the
immediate lakeshore from Cleveland thru Erie PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad trough will be the main feature across the region for
the remainder of the weekend and into Monday. This will yield
temperatures that will be running upwards of 10 degrees below
normal. Upper vort max spiraling across MN today will make its
way across the lower lakes for Sunday. With its close proximity
expecting shower development/isolated thunderstorms from north-
central OH eastward. Main feature will likely pass early enough
in the day that western areas will remain dry. Highs will be
within a few degrees of 70 with breezy winds.

By Sunday night temperatures aloft will definitely be cool
enough for a lake enhancement scenario, but with the area
between troughs/local ridging, did not want to go too high on
precip chances across the snowbelt. In fact unsure how much
activity we will have Monday morning with the next trough still
north across the lakes until late afternoon. Have a large area
of likely precip chances or better from Cleveland and Youngstown
eastward as instability showers/ts will flare up by afternoon.
There will be more upper 60s for highs and fewer 70s Monday.

High pressure and ridging work eastward for Tuesday. Lingering
showers east early and temperatures beginning to rebound across
the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the second day in a row haven`t made many changes.  Wednesday is
still looking dry.  The area will just be getting in the warmer
southerly flow on the backside of the surface ridge. Southwesterly
flow will then continue for a few days with lower level moisture
steadily increasing.  The new guidance continues to be in fair
agreement with the low set to move over the western lakes late next
week.  The warm front from the low could begin to kick off a few
showers and storms as early as Thursday. Have removed all mention
from Wednesday night.  Precip chances will then be needed into the
weekend as surface dewpoints eventually make the upper 60s.
Temperatures will be seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A few showers may develop late this morning into early this
afternoon across exteme northeast Ohio into northwest
Pennsylvania. These could affect KERI, so have included a PROB30
for the time being. While an isolated shower is also possible as
far west as KCAK, probability is too low to include in the TAFs.
VFR cumulus will develop again on Sunday afternoon, likely
becoming broken (050) in the afternoon/evening across eastern
areas. Brief MVFR conditions possible in any shower. West winds
will become gusty again on Sunday with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

OUTLOOK...Chance of isolated MVFR in showers Monday into
Tuesday morning with a trough aloft.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Even though the buoys continue to report conditions below small
craft criteria have been getting human reports of 5 foot waves. Have
gone ahead and put up a small craft through the evening.  Another
small craft will likely be needed tomorrow as westerly winds should
be even stronger.  Mainly westerly flow will continue through Monday
evening.  A cold front will cross the lake early Tuesday flipping
the flow to the northwest or north.  It`s not looking like winds
will be strong enough for small craft conditions behind this front.
A surface ridge will cross the lake Tuesday night with southerly
winds finally returning.  South to southwest flow will then continue
through the end of the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Adams/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...Kosarik/Kubina