Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 281646 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1246 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure working across the Upper Ohio Valley this morning will head to the mid-Atlantic coast by this evening. High pressure from central Canada will build south across the Great Lakes for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The next low pressure system will again originate from the southern Plains on Wednesday night and track toward the Ohio Valley for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Rain has since moved east of the area this morning. Mainly clouds linger at this time. We could see some breaks in the overcast later this afternoon that will help boost temperatures a few degrees. Will knock central portion temperatures down as north to northeast flow persists along with cold air advection. Otherwise, no other major changes with this update. Previous Discussion... Have added the mention of patchy fog this morning for downtown Cleveland across the near west suburbs and down toward Mansfield/Ashland for a few hours this morning. Visibility at the airport has come down under a mile. This area is on the back edge of the rain and is also where cooler air has filtered southward. Not sure of the extent of fog up the lakeshore toward Erie though. There has not been as much rain there and winds are now just coming around to the north. Not thinking it will be too bad for too long...but could be wrong. Otherwise with the early morning update have tweaked temperatures and precip chances a bit. Have brought temps down a degree or two. Previous discussion...Low pressure moving east-northeast across central OH this morning will continue to have showers rotating about it. Question will be how far north does this band of steadier showers make it as it pivots across eastern OH. HRRR seems to have good handle on it so far this morning and will trend that way. This will bring the steadier rain from Avon Point up to the lakeshore into northwest PA early this morning before tapering the showers going into early afternoon. Temperatures will be tricky. North winds and some cold advection will make it tough for temperatures to go more than a few degrees up from mid morning lows. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Although the afternoon will likely be dry have lingered the slight chance of rain that we had going for this evening going. A weak trough and low level moisture may be enough for some light rain/sprinkles this evening across the eastern half of the area. But by the second half of the night high pressure and drying will end any threat. Temperatures will dip into the 30s. Cool high pressure will keep temperatures close to seasonal averages. Temperatures will be coolest near the lake with a north-northeast wind. The ridge does not shift to our east until Wednesday night and winds will begin to respond to low pressure developing and moving out of the southern Plains toward the Ohio Valley for the second half of the week. There is still some spread on low track, but most take a similar track to recent lows...across central OH. Pulled back on precip chances until later in the day...more toward evening with the exception of the I-75 corridor which could get clipped earlier. Bulk of rain will accompany the low and the upper trough across the area Thursday night into Friday. A little cooler Wednesday with the high overhead. This will lead to another cool night with some sub freezing temps possible across far ne OH/nw PA...but this is right near season norms. Warmer Thursday/Friday ahead of the next system. A good east wind Thursday will keep the Toledo area cool from the lake. Temps may end up being cooler near the entire lakeshore Friday if indeed the low track is south of the local area and we enhance a north wind. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As we enter into April, the good news is that there continues to be no snow in the extended forecast. High pressure is progged to build in on Saturday. Cannot rule out lingering showers in the morning but the model trends have been consistent with subsidence and drying. Will go a bit below guidance temperatures Saturday into Sunday especially near Lake Erie given the north wind. Sunday remains uncertain as a zone of differential advection and frontogenesis wants to develop all the way from the upper midwest to the upper Ohio Valley. Most of the time, this type of pattern will result in mid clouds and perhaps a sprinkle but hard to get excited about measurable rain and will continue with a dry forecast on Sunday. The models diverge by Monday with the ECMWF developing a deeper storm system farther north while the other models confine the system to the southern branch. Will keep a small PoP in the forecast Monday given the uncertainty on the seventh day of the forecast. Temperatures on Monday will depend on the clouds and threat of rain but we should start the day with high pressure and relatively high heights and one would think there is a decent chance it will try to warm above normal with highs around 60 or more if the rain holds off. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Showers moving east about 20 mph and will end from west to east this morning. IFR ceilings will become widespread this morning and improve only slowly becoming MVFR this afternoon. VFR ceilings will return across northwest OH by late afternoon or early evening but remain Non-VFR elsewhere into tonight. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing again on Thursday and continuing into Friday. Non-VFR possible through Saturday morning NE OH and NW PA. && .MARINE... Low pressure will track south of Lake Erie today with a corresponding north wind. Wind speeds and waves should remain below small craft criteria but the south shore and the Islands will be a little choppy. A large area of high pressure will slowly cross eastern Canada mid week. Combine the high pressure with low pressure in the Mississippi Valley and the east to northeast flow on Lake Erie will increase noticeably by Thursday and a small craft advisory may be needed. The low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley will likely track just south of Lake Erie on Friday. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes again by the weekend with more north winds and choppy conditions. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Kosarik AVIATION...Kosarik MARINE...Kosarik

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