Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FGUS71 KCLE 032035
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OHC005-007-033-035-043-055-063-075-077-083-085-093-095-099-101-
103-117-123-133-139-143-147-151-153-155-169-173-175-PAC039-049-
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
435 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013


...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 7...

...THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF APRIL...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH ISSUANCE OF THE WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND. FLOOD
OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY DURING THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO
SUMMARIZE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...OVERVIEW...
THE FLOOD THREAT FOR THE UPCOMING TWO WEEKS IS BELOW NORMAL. THE
SNOW PACK LINGERING OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MELT OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
SHORT TERM KEEPS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AT A MINIMUM. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS LEADS TO A NORMAL THREAT OF
FLOODING. THE RISK OF MAJOR FLOODING IS LOW.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
THE RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WINTER POOL LEVELS. IN THE ALLEGHENY BASIN THE RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR
NORMAL AND HAVE USED LESS THAN 10% OF THEIR FLOOD STORAGE. IN THE
MUSKINGUM BASIN THE RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. STREAMFLOWS HAVE BEEN RUNNING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
ALL BASINS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...SNOW COVER...
THE ONLY REMAINING SNOW PACK IS LOCATED IN THE FRENCH CREEK BASIN
OF THE UPPER ALLEGHENY. THIS LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MELT
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL. THE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW PACK IS LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH.

ICE COVERAGE...
THE LAKE AND RIVERS HAVE PASSED THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK ICE
PERIOD AND THE ICE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO RECEDE.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
SOIL MOISTURE ARE HIGH AS IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY SPRING...HOWEVER IT
IS NOT SATURATED. THE GRADUAL WARMING OF THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE THAWING.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND WEEKS OF APRIL
ARE IN THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF MARCH AND INTO EARLY APRIL. THIS TREND WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
50S BY THE SECOND WEEK OF THE MONTH. BY THE LATER PART OF APRIL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WHICH RUN AROUND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF APRIL.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE ENSO CYCLE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEUTRAL AND NOT PLAY A NOTABLE ROLE ON THE LARGE SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. THIS SPRING. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER(CPC) IS PREDICTING A TURN AROUND IN TEMPERATURES BY THE LATER
PART OF THIS MONTH WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS FORECAST IS DRIVEN BY THE MODEL PREDICTIONS
THAT THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) WILL SWITCH FROM
NEGATIVE...AS IT HAS BEEN SINCE MID FEBRUARY...TO POSITIVE. THIS
POSITIVE STATE OF THE NAO IS LESS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE NORTHERN JET
INFLUENCE ON THE LOWER 48 STATES. HOWEVER THIS WEATHER PATTERN
SHIFT COULD ALSO SUPPORT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER INCLUDING THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
IN SUMMARY...WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS OF A MINIMAL SNOW
PACK...RESERVOIR STORAGE SPACE...AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL FORECAST THERE
IS A BELOW NORMAL CHANCE FOR FLOODING OVER THE SHORT TERM. BY
THE LATER HALF OF APRIL CONDITIONS COULD TURN TO SUPPORT A WARMER
AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.

REAL TIME RIVER INFORMATION AND PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FOR
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/CLE/ AND CLICKING THE /RIVERS AND LAKES
AHPS/ LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE.


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