335
FXUS61 KALY 191445
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1045 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today with partly to mostly
sunny skies and temperatures rising to near to slightly above normal
readings. After a cool morning Monday, expect temperatures to rise
well above normal Monday afternoon into Wednesday with a warm air
mass building in. A cold front will bring increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1045 AM EDT, regional ASOS and NYS Mesonet
observations show temperatures already reaching the mid to upper
60s, a few degrees ahead of expectations with abundant sunshine
outside of western New England. Have therefore raised
temperatures through the afternoon, with updated highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s in western New England as well as the
higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Catskills, while the
Hudson and Mohawk Valleys see mid and upper 70s or possibly
isolated 80 degree readings in the warmest spots. Some diurnal
cumulus has already begun to develop west of the Hudson per
latest satellite imagery, with increased fair weather cloud
coverage expected into the afternoon, especially over areas of
terrain. Forecast otherwise remains on track; see previous
discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0647 AM EDT]...A mid and upper level ridge
continues to build in from the Midwest and the lower MS River
Valley over NY and New England today. High pressure at the sfc
near IN/OH will settle in over the northern Mid Atlantic and
Northeast states. Some patchy morning fog continues to
dissipate, but some stratus has persisted over portions of the
mid Hudson Valley, Capital Region and Lake George east into
western New England with the onshore flow with the disturbance
off the coast. The stratus will begin to break up and dissipate
by the late morning into the afternoon with more sunshine
commencing.

The skies will become partly to mostly sunny and temps will rise
to seasonable levels east of the Hudson River Valley and
slightly above normal from the Hudson River Valley westward.
Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain
and mainly mid and upper 70s in the valleys with slightly cooler
reading in the CT River Valley near southeast CT due to the
lingering clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...expect the skies to become mostly clear to partly
cloudy overnight with perhaps some lingering clouds over
western New England. The winds will become light to calm for
near ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will be in the
mid 40s to around 50F over the hills and mtns, and 50-55F in the
valleys. Some patchy fog may form in the valleys.

The work/school week will open with the anomalous mid and upper
level ridge over the region folding in from the west/southwest.
Expect the partly to mostly sunny conditions with strong
synoptic subsidence. The NAEFS indicates H850 temps +1 to +2
STDEVS above normal. Max temps will run about 10 degrees above
normal with light south/southeast winds. Mixing depths will be
shallow. Highs will in the in the 80-85F range in the valleys
and 70s over the higher terrain. Monday night will not be as
cool as the previous night, as some cirrus or convective debris
clouds may move in from the Great Lakes Region. Still...pleasant
conditions will lows in the 50s to around 60F in a few spots.

Tue-Tue night...The mid level flow becomes zonal over northern
NY and northern New England. A lead sfc cyclone moves across
southeast Ontario into Quebec. A cold front remains across the
Great Lakes Region. The warming trend continues, as the H850
temps remain above normal by 1-2 STDEVs with the actual values
getting up to +14C to +16C. The uptick of temps continues with
highs about 15 degrees above normal with mid 70s to lower 80s
over the higher terrain and mid to upper 80s in the valley
areas. Humidity level will increase to modest/moderate levels
with upper 50s to mid 60s over the region. A few showers or
thunderstorms could pop-up ahead of a prefrontal disturbance if
the convective temps are reached over the Adirondack Park,
western Mohawk Valley and the Lake George Region. These should
fizzle with the loss of the diurnal heating. The skies will be
come mostly clear with mild lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Wednesday with a closed upper low and
associated sub-990 mb surface low located over the western Great
Lakes region. During the Wednesday into Thursday timeframe, these
features will track to our north/northwest across southern Canada,
and the trailing cold front associated with the surface low will
track through our region. Confidence is increasing that the cold
front will remain to our west on Wednesday, which will keep our
region in the warm sector. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s
for valley areas, with portions of the Capital District and the CT
River Valley potentially seeing highs right around 90. Dew points
will "only" be in the upper 50s to low 60s, so heat indices/feel-
like temperatures will be similar to the actual temperature and it
does not currently look like we will hit heat advisory criteria. A
couple of afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible,
mainly west of I-87 as a pre-frontal trough tracks through the
region, although warm temperatures aloft will likely prevent storms
from becoming strong to severe.

There are still some considerable differences in the guidance
regarding the timing of the front. The GFS is the most progressive,
likely due to the fact that it does not close off the upper low but
rather keeps it as an open wave over the upper midwest. Possible
timing for the frontal passage ranges from Wednesday night to
Thursday evening. If the front comes through Thursday afternoon or
evening then there could be enough overlap of shear and instability
for some stronger storms, while an earlier frontal passage would
coincide with less instability and a reduced threat for severe
weather. Will continue to monitor this period closely and refine the
forecast as additional guidance becomes available. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs Thursday will be highly
dependent on the timing of the front, but areas ahead of the front
could see temperatures well into the 80s. The best chance of this is
south and east of Albany. Lows THursday night will generally be in
the 50s, and there could be a few showers/thunderstorms lingering in
the evening if the cold front is on the slower side.

Friday through the weekend, we will be in a post-frontal airmass
with cold advection, northwesterly winds, and high pressure tracking
near our region. If the upper low tracks close enough to our region
then there is a chance for a few pop-up showers with daytime heating
on Friday, but otherwise the second half of the long term should
feature quieter weather. Temperatures will be much cooler behind
the front, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to low 50s each
night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...Flying conditions remain VFR at GFL/ALB/POU as
of 1:15 AM EDT and MVFR at PSF as low stratus has moved in there
already. Stratus should continue to expand north and westward
through the remainder of the night, with MVFR cigs expected to
develop at POU during the pre-dawn hours. Already seeing some
stratus developing near ALB, but thinking that cloud heights should
remain above 3000 ft at ALB and therefore VFR conditions prevail
into this morning. Clear skies at GFL may allow for some fog/mist
development tonight, so have continued with the tempo group from the
previous TAF issuance. If fog forms, then IFR vsbys and/or cigs are
possible. At PSF, low stratus persists well into this morning with
MVFR/fuel alternate cigs. Low stratus burns off at POU by 13-15z and
15-17z at PSF. Any fog at GFL burns off by 12z. Once fog/mist/low
stratus dissipates, VFR conditions with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds
expected through this evening. After 3z, MVFR cigs may redevelop at
PSF with more low stratus possible tonight.

Winds will generally be light at 5 kt or less through sunrise, then
increasing to 5-10 kt from the southeast at ALB/GFL and
east/northeast at POU/PSF through this evening. Winds become light
and variable by 3z at GFL/POU and remain easterly at PSF at around 5
kt and southeasterly at ALB at around 5 kt through the end of the
TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962
Glens Falls: 90 in 1975
Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main
CLIMATE...Speciale