Text Products for AFD Issued by ALY

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 261707
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
107 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be shifting off to the southeast for
tonight into Saturday, allowing for clear skies to gradually give
way to some clouds.  As a frontal boundary approaches the area, some
showers will be possible for late Saturday into Saturday night.  A
frontal boundary will remain close to the area for Sunday into
Monday, with clouds and some passing light showers in spots.  Warmer
temperatures will finally make its way into the region during next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 107 PM EDT...High pressure (around 1033 mb) is centered
over northern New York and New England. With the strong
subsidence in place, skies are fairly sunny across the area,
with just a few thin high clouds around. Visible satellite
imagery, web cams and surface observations shows the only clouds
over the Northeast are a few thin cirrus clouds around. With
the high pressure area continued to only slowly drift to the
southeast and dry air in place, it will continue to stay sunny
through the entire day and into the evening hours. The 12z KALY
sounding showed a PWAT of only 0.17 inches, which is very dry.

Temps aloft are a little warmer than yesterday, so highs should
be a little closer to normal, although probably still slightly
below average for late April. Most areas will be in the 50s for
highs this afternoon, although a few spots in the Hudson Valley
could reach the low 60s. With the surface high overhead, winds
will be very light or calm through the entire day.

For tonight, the high pressure area will be slowly shifting to
just offshore southern New England by the late night hours. For
most of the night, it will be fairly clear, although some thin
high clouds may start to increase by late in the overnight from
the west. By later in the overnight, a light south to southeast
wind will start to develop, especially in the Hudson Valley.
This may prevent temps from getting as chilly as the last few
mornings, but most spots will be in the 30s. Some sheltered
areas (especially the Adirondacks and southern VT) will still
see some 20s. Although the growing season hasn`t begun
officially yet, many areas will be seeing some frost tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge axis will move east across the region on
Sat, while surface high pressure remains positioned south/east
of New England. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through
much of the day. A warm front approaching from the west will
bring increasing clouds during the afternoon, and perhaps a few
light showers late in the day for areas west of the Hudson
Valley. Forecast soundings indicate a significant wedge of dry
air in the low levels, so most of any showers aloft should
evaporate. High temperatures are expected warm to normal levels
(lower/mid 60s in valleys) as the air mass continues to
moderate with mostly sunny skies through the morning and at
least partial sunshine into the afternoon. Southerly winds will
increase with gusts of 15-20 mph developing in the afternoon.

The upper ridge axis will to shift east into New England Sat
night, as the surface warm front lifts northeast across the
region Sat night. Along with a possible weak disturbance moving
through, this should result in scattered to numerous showers
developing. Will also mention isolated thunder west of the
Hudson Valley, as some there will be some elevated instability
present above a developing low-level inversion. With the clouds
and showers around, lows will be milder mainly in the 40s.

Milder temperatures are expected on Sunday as the warm front
lifts north of the region and upper level heights start to build
again. However, some guidance has trended cooler as the upper
ridge axis will be positioned to our west and a possible weak
disturbance may spill over the ridge with extra cloud cover and
a few showers possible. Will mention slightly cooler
temperatures compared to the previous forecast, but still
relatively mild with 60s to lower 70s for highs. Confidence in
precip chances is low at this time, but much of the day could
still end up dry.

Upper ridging looks to become better established Sun night,
with solid 500 mb height anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV. As a
strong surface high tracks east into northern Quebec, ridging
extending southward may push a cold front into at least northern
parts of our region. Will monitor trends for possible showers
and cooler temperatures associated with this front, but will
continue to forecast mainly dry conditions and mild temperatures
for now with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Periods of showers and potentially some thunderstorms riddle
the extended forecast period as multiple disturbances impact the
region....

The extended forecast period opens with primarily dry
conditions Monday outside of a few isolated to scattered,
diurnally-driven showers along a back door cold front passing
through the region as its parent low pressure system moves into
the Canadian Maritimes. Aloft, the axis of a mid- to upper-level
ridge builds across the region, allowing a mild airmass to
remain in place. However, with northwesterly flow at the apex of
the ridge cutting off the advection of warmer air to our south
and west and weak cold air advection from the cool fropa, high
temperatures Monday will likely not reach their previously
anticipated summer-like magnitude. That`s not to say that
Monday`s highs will not be on the warm side for late April,
however, as the forecast of upper 60s to upper 70s remains
within 2-3 STDVs above normal according to the latest NAEFS.

Though spatial spread remains a bit uncertain, latest guidance
indicates that showers will then begin to overspread the region
from west to east late Monday evening/early Tuesday morning as a
warm front approaches the region. As the warm front makes
progress through the region through Tuesday morning, eastern New
York and western New England will become wedged into the warm
sector ahead of an impending cold front. Showers will continue
throughout the day Tuesday with some embedded thunderstorms
possible as medium to long term guidance indicates modest
instability across portions of the region. It is too early to
determine the strength of any developing convection, but any
thunderstorms that develop will likely dissipate come Tuesday
night with the loss of diurnal heating decreasing instability.
And while timing discrepancies exist surrounding the dissipation
of showers, medium to long range guidance indicates lingering
precipitation into at least Wednesday morning. Tuesday`s highs
will be slightly cooler than Monday`s with temperatures looking
to range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

A brief break in shower activity comes Wednesday as a surface
high ridges in from the southwest. High temperatures Wednesday
will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s with pockets of low 60s
in high terrain areas. Shower chances increase once again
towards the end of the week with yet another frontal system
looking to impact the region. However, uncertainty surrounding
the evolution of this system subsequently gives low confidence
in the impacts for our forecast area. For now, mentioned
scattered to chance PoPs throughout the region through the end
of the week. High temperatures during this time will cool off a
bit in comparison to the beginning of the period with highs
expected to be in the low to upper 60s Thursday with pockets of
50s above 1500 ft and 50s and 60s likely on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Flying conditions will continue to be VFR through the entire TAF
period. Nearly fully clear skies will continue this afternoon
into this evening. Some high clouds will be increasing late
tonight into Saturday morning. By later Saturday morning into
Saturday afternoon, there will be sct-bkn clouds around 25 kft.
Some spotty stratocu/cu will be moving into the area during the
day on Saturday as well, but it will remain VFR. The next chance
for showers won`t be until late in the day on Saturday or
Saturday night.

Surface winds will be light to calm today into most of tonight.
South to southeast winds will be developing by late tonight
around 5 kts. On Saturday, southerly winds will increase to 5 to
10 kts for all sites.

Outlook...

Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Frugis
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
