Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 300528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
128 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

Issued at 748 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Scattered showers and isolated storms will die off through the
evening hours, with primarily partly cloudy skies overnight.
Seasonably cool and mainly dry otherwise through the middle of the
week with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday ranging between the
upper 60s to middle 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances then
increase late this week as a frontal boundary sets up over the


.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

An upper level low over Lake Superior and Ontario will
wobble/broaden slowly toward James Bay through the middle of the
week. Several minor/low amplitude shortwaves and associated sfc
troughs will pivot through the region on the southern fringe of this
feature bringing low chances for scattered showers to the local area
late this afternoon/early evening and again Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Diurnal heating/steep low level lapse rates with
dewpoints in the low-mid 50s are providing nearly 500 j/kg of
surface based CAPE this afternoon. This could result in some heavier
showers/iso thunder with wind gusts > 30 mph. With that said,
convection will likely be disorganized and low coverage given
scarcity of moisture and weak low level convergence along eastward
advancing secondary trough. Best chances (still only 20-30%) into
the early evening will be across ne IN/sc Lower MI/nw OH. Cooler
conditions and a more shallow moist/convective layer with the next
shortwave not arriving until Tuesday night will result in lesser
chances for any diurnally driven showers on Tuesday. Seasonably cool
and mainly dry otherwise the main story Tuesday into Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Significant height rises/subsidence as lower heights refocus into
Quebec will allow height pressure to briefly build with fair
wx/clear skies Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Low level
moisture streaming northeast on the backside of this area of high
pressure will bring periodic shower/storm chances back into the
forecast later Thursday through Friday night near a developing
baroclinic zone. Several convective systems could impact the local
area during this time, best chances later Friday/Friday night as a
large scale vort lobe drops south through the Great Lakes. Locally
heavy rain and severe weather may become a concern, with confidence
at this fcst range low.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

A few light showers may graze KFWA over the next hour or so as a
weak disturbance departs but should cause no concerns. Otherwise a
quiet night will be in store with cu popping once again with
strong mixing late Tues am into the afternoon. Much like
yesterday, another weak disturbance will move through during peak
heating to bring a outside chance for a shower or storm, mainly at
KSBN. Coverage and confidence doesn`t warrant more than a VCSH
mention for now at KSBN. Skies will clear out again after 00Z




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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