Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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208
FXUS63 KIWX 251328
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
828 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 824 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Major to moderate flooding will continue to impact portions of
northwest Indiana and southwest lower Michigan. Winds will
conitnue to diminsh through the day but still remain gusty at
times. Temperatures will rise briefly into the 50s, and then fall
into the 40s this afternoon. Mild and dry weather is just ahead
Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Wind gusts across the area have begun to stabilize across the
area, with marginal advisory criteria still in a few spots. South
of US 30 winds have dropped off significantly, thus warranting the
cancellation of the wind advisory. Will keep the advisory going
through its end at 10 am EST despite the marginal wind speeds
along and north of US 30.

Otherwise, forecast on track with clearing to quickly work in by
afternoon for the area to allow for some much needed drying out
for many areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 313 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Katabatic high winds behind the front will diminish early this
morning as the front moves east. Have issued a relatively short
term wind advisory for these winds. As of 320 AM, the strongest
wind gust recorded so far has been 58 mph at Logansport. Numerous
other wind gust topped out at speed between 45 and 55 mph.

Have cancelled the flood watch for areas east and south of Fort
Wayne. Some river flooding is still likely; otherwise, with rain
essentially ending, and additional flooding is not expected. The
longer term flooding issues of northwest Indiana and far southwest
Lower Michigan will continue although most rivers have crested
and are subsiding.

Skies will clear by midday with breezy conditions continuing into
the afternoon. Temperatures will fall back into the 40s after
morning highs in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 313 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Mild and dry conditions are just ahead as the upper level trof
moves northeast out of the area and broad upper ridging set up
over the Ohio Valley. Some energy from the large upper level trof
will work its way east and arrive by Thursday. Temperatures should
fall back to normal by Friday with a light wintry mix possible
Thursday night. Travel issues are not expected at this time as
temperatures remain above freezing Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Stronger pressure rise/fall couplet gradient will vacate
northwest Ohio over next few hours which should result in loss of
higher end 40 knot gusts at KFWA by the 14Z or 15Z timeframe.
Strong synoptic subsidence building in from the west this morning
in wake of upper trough will allow for efficient momentum
transport, and coupled with steep low level lapse rates/cold
advection, should allow for continued gusts to around 30 knots
late morning-mid afternoon before more notable drop in gusts late
this afternoon. Cigs in the 1500-2500 ft range will scatter later
this morning/midday period from west to east with VFR conditions
for the remainder of the period.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     INZ003>009-014-016>018.

MI...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ077>081.

OH...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fisher
SYNOPSIS...Brown/Skipper/Fisher
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili


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