Text Products for AFD Issued by REV

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXUS65 KREV 181946
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1246 PM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures remain above average with highs in the 60s for
Sierra communities and 70s for lower valleys through Friday. A
few valleys may see highs surpass 80 degrees this weekend into
Monday. Aside from isolated shower chances near the Sierra Friday
afternoon, dry weather will prevail through the weekend. A cooling
trend with increased shower chances may return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Warming and drying trend through the weekend with 10-15% chances
  for showers along the Sierra, esp in southern Mono county. Can`t
  rule out a thunderstorm or two.

* Typical westerly afternoon breezes each day, with enhanced winds
  on Saturday afternoon as a shortwave passes through the Pac NW.

* Enjoy the warmer, spring-like conditions while they last.
  Shower and thunderstorm potential will be on the rise from
  Wednesday onward next week.

* NEW * Check out the Hydrology section for details on the warmth
  contributing to snowmelt and enhanced flows on area waterways.

No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. If warm
and dry is your pick for weather, then the rest of this week into
early next week is your cup of tea. Warm and dry conditions will
persist through early to mid next week with western Nevada valleys
in the upper 70s to low 80s and the Sierra in the 60s. Sunday and
Monday are projected to be the warmest day along the Sierra and
western Nevada as brief shortwave ridging rides over the West.

Beyond Monday ensemble forecasts are leaning toward a cooler, more
active week with several closed upper lows in the queue off the
West coast. With a couple of lows and split troughs lined up to
sweep into the Sierra and western Nevada next week, the trend is
toward higher precipitation potential as well as thunderstorm
chances. Wind signals don`t appear to be very impressive for now,
but localized wind gusts may pop up if we get some stronger
thunderstorms. If you have outdoor chores or recreation, might be
best to hedge those plans for the weekend and early next week for
now. The trend continues to favor afternoon-evening showers each
day next week, and the models have trended a bit wetter with more
coverage today. The more active weather would contribute to a bit
of a cooling trend as well, with daytime highs more in the average
range.

-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

Plan on VFR conditions through the weekend. The main exception to
that forecast detailed here:

* KTRK may have patchy FZFG each morning, except for early Friday
  morning with plenty of mid to high cloud cover present.

* Friday afternoon cumulus buildups will be visible from the main
  terminals, with about a 20-25% chance for a rain shower (10%
  chance for thunder) producing brief MVFR CIGS at KMMH between
  21Z-03Z.

* Surface winds will be generally light for the next few days.
  Saturday afternoon may be a more breezy day with west wind
  gusts around 20 mph for the far western NV terminals.

MJD/Edan

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Above normal temperatures combined with mostly sunny skies will
increase snowmelt leading to minor to moderate rises in rivers and
creeks draining largely snow covered watersheds. While no
flooding is expected in the area, many waterways will be running
cold and fast, with gradually increasing flows into early next
week. The West fork of the Carson near Woodfords is expected to
rise above the action stage each night through Tuesday, but remain
below flood stage.

Rivers and streams draining mostly snow covered
terrain below about 7500 feet are likely to see their seasonal
peaks by early next week. Basins with significant higher elevation
terrain will retain plenty of snow for higher flows with
subsequent warmups.The Lower Humboldt is expected to have very
high flows for many weeks with minor flooding likely in May or
June, or even into early July.

Exercise caution around rivers and streams, remember mountain
rivers and streams often reach their highest levels from snowmelt
at night.

-TB

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
