Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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MTC001-005-007-013-015-027-031-035-041-043-045-049-051-057-059-073-
099-101-081000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1250 AM MDT FRI APR 8 2016

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING FOR MONTANA EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING SPRING OF 2016 IS BELOW NORMAL...

MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK AT LOCATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET IS GENERALLY NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BELOW 7000 FEET MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK IS
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL. NO SNOWPACK IS LEFT OVER THE PLAINS. GROUND
CONDITIONS ARE THAWED ACROSS THE STATE. WITH SNOWPACK NEAR OR BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES...AND GENERALLY OPEN SOILS...THE CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EITHER IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OR
ON THE PLAINS IS UNLIKELY.

CHANCES FOR MAJOR...MODERATE...OR MINOR FLOODING BASED ON THE SNOWPACK
AS OF APRIL 4 IN THE MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA AND THE SNOW COVER OVER
THE PLAINS...THERE EXISTS A LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MINOR...MODERATE...OR MAJOR FLOODING ON RIVERS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.

CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS...WITH RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES...MONTANA
STREAMS AND RIVERS HAVE OPENED. STREAMS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE ARE MOSTLY WELL ABOVE THEIR LONG TERM MEDIAN...WHILE STREAMS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THEIR LONG TERM
MEDIAN.

STREAMFLOWS WEST OF THE DIVIDE GENERALLY RANGE FROM NORMAL TO MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. EAST OF THE DIVIDE MOST STREAMFLOWS RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS...SOILS ARE GENERALLY WETTER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS MONTANA EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOILS ARE ALSO MOSTLY
UNFROZEN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA.

SOIL TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ AT LISTED DEPTH
                2IN   4IN  6IN  8IN  12IN  20IN  25IN  30IN  40IN
 ALBERTON NR   6150          33        34          34          35
 BOZEMAN EXPST 4774    43    45        43          41
 BOZEMAN 12SE  6860                    33          34          35
 BRUSETT 4SE   2643    42    44        44          45          43
 CAMERON 15SW  8800          32        32          33          34
 COOKE CITY NR 8700          32        32          33           M
 CONRAD SCAN   3706    47    49        42          41          50
 FLATTOP MTN   6300                    33
 GREAT FALLS   3776          43        46          46          46
 HAVRE SCAN    2710    45    46        47          43          41
 JORDAN SCAN   2820    41    44        45          42           M
 LAKEVIEW NR   7400          32        33          29          34
 LAKEVIEW 15NW 7800          32        33          34          35
 LINCOLN 11SE  7020          46        33          35
 LINDSAY SCAN  2680    42    44        45          43          42
 LOOKOUT PASS  5140           M        34          34           M
 MANY GLACIER  4900                    34
 MAXVILLE NR   7210          33        34          34          36
 MOCCASIN SCAN 4256    43    45        46          43          41
 MT LOCKHART   6400          33        33          34          34
 NEIHART 12SE  8100          32        32          32          33
 POPLAR 13NE   2085    42    44        44          40          38
 SIDNEY SCAN   2274    42    43        43          41           M
 THREE FKS SCN 4775    44    46        44          42          41
 TIBER DAM SCN 3225    43    48        48          43          41
 UTICA 11SW    5070    40    43        43          42          40
 W YELLOWSTONE 6700          33        32          50          35
 W YELLOWST SO 8150          33        32          34          35
 WHITE SS 13SE 7600          32        32          33          34

 GROUND TEMPERATURE /F/ AT THE SURFACE AND 18 INCHES DEEP AT MT DOT
 SITES

 ABERDEEN HILL 4101    42                      53
 ALZADA DOT    4327    40                      52
 ARROW CREEK   3956    42                      54
 AVON NORTH    5085    35                      35
 BEARSMOUTH    3901    42                      56
 BEAVER HILL   2551    36                      51
 BIDDLE DOT    3418    41                      52
 BIG HOLE PASS 7400    94                      91
 BOULDER PASS  5600    38                      50
 BOWMANS CORNR 4301    42                      53
 BOZEMAN PASS  5748    39                      52
 BULL MOUNTAIN 3898    41                      53
 COMERSTOWN    2099    29                      20
 COW CREEK     2500    36                      50
 CRYSTAL CREEK 3030    40                      53
 DEEP CREEK    5870    32                      49
 DEARBORN      3500    43                      55
 DENTON DOT    3557    42                      51
 E LIVINGSTON  4555    39                      56
 EKALAKA DOT   3687    41                      50
 ESSEX DOT     3875    37                      51
 GARRISON DOT  4327    40                      54
 GEORGETOWN LK 6339    32                      46
 GEYSER DOT    4138    37                      50
 GOVERNMENT HL 3165    44                      53
 GREENOUGH HL  4070    39                      54
 HAYS DOT      3697    41                      47
 HELMVILLE DOT 4199    39                      52
 HILLSIDE DOT  2998    39                      51
 HYSHAM HILLS  3549    46                      53
 INGOMAR DOT   3018    44                      53
 INVERNESS     3300    38                       M
 JUDITH GAP    4677    36                      50
 KARST DOT     5698    34                      46
 LAME DEER     4327     M                       M
 LEWISTOWN DVD 4622    39                      47
 LINDSAY DIV   3198    35                      50
 LOMA DOT      2557    44                      52
 LOOKOUT PASS  4540    38                      51
 MACDONALD PSS 6320    34                      43
 MALTA SOUTH   3122    43                      54
 MCDONALDS DOT 2401    32                      48
 MONARCH CANYN 5218    38                      48
 MONIDA PASS   6824    34                      47
 NAVAHO DOT    2570    32                      46
 NINEMILE DOT  4301    42                      54
 NORRIS HILL   5695    41                      45
 PENDROY DOT   4199     M                       M
 RAYNOLDS PASS 6778    35                      42
 REEDPOINT DOT 3890    41                      54
 ROGERS PASS   5406    40                      48
 ROSCOE HILL   5337    39                      50
 SACO DOT      2177    37                      40
 SIEBEN DOT    4040    39                      50
 SIOUX PASS    2480    34                      49
 SWAN LAKE     3567    39                      54
 SWEENEY CREEK 2598    44                      56
 SWEET GRASS   3690    42                      53
 TROUT CREEK   2384    43                      56
 TWO MEDICINE  4920    44                      49
 US2 STATELINE 2099    35                      48
 YAAK HILL     2201    47                      58
 YELLOWSTONE B 3194    42                      57


SOIL MOISTURE /VOLUMETRIC SOIL MOISTURE IN PERCENT/ AT LISTED DEPTH
SOIL MOISTURE IS IN UNITS OF PERCENT VOLUMETRIC SOIL MOISTURE.
VALUES AT OR NEAR ZERO MAY BE ERRONEOUS.
               ELEV   2IN   4IN  6IN  8IN  12IN  20IN  30IN  40IN
 ALBERTON NR   6150         24        31          10          40
 BOZEMAN 12SE  6860                   25          46          46
 BRUSETT 4SE   2643    16    14       10           6           9
 CAMERON 15SW  8800           M       39          38          41
 CONRAD SCAN   3706    28    29       32          31          34
 COOKE CITY NR 8700           8        0           3           M
 FLATTOP MTN   6300               36
 HAVRE SCAN    2710    12    21       30          26          23
 JORDAN SCAN   2820    22    30       33          19          15
 LAKEVIEW NEAR 7400          29       16          34          24
 LAKEVIEW 15NW 7800          34       22          33          35
 LINCOLN 11SE  7020           M       21          17          10
 LINDSAY SCAN  2860    14    13       13           6          11
 LOOKOUT PASS  5140           M       40          34
 MANY GLACIER  4900                   13
 MAXVILLE NR   7210          23       13           0          18
 MOCCASIN SCAN 4256    25    29       31          12           7
 MT LOCKHART   6400          29       37          34
 NEIHART 12SE  8100          21       27          28          31
 POPLAR 13NE   2085    13    23       11          20          11
 SIDNEY SCAN   2274    20    22       18          15           M
 THREE FKS SCN 4775    16    26       38          32           7
 TIBER DAM SCN 3225    18    29       33           8           4
 UTICA 11SW    5070    10    17        9          10           7
 W YELLOWSTONE 6700          22       10           M           0
 W YELLOWST SO 8150          21       25          23          28
 WHITE SS 13SE 7600           1        4           3          18


CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS...AS OF APRIL 4...FOR INDIVIDUAL BASINS...THE
NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...NRCS...IS REPORTING
CONDITIONS IN MONTANA RANGING FROM ABOVE TO BELOW NORMAL.

MONTANA WATERSHED CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT PERCENT OF NORMAL`
WATERSHED                       SWE
BITTERROOT                      93%
FLATHEAD                        95%
GALLATIN                        98%
HEADWATERS MAINSTEM MISSOURI    87%
JEFFERSON                      106%
KOOTENAI                        97%
LOWER CLARK FORK                88%
MADISON                         96%
ST. MARYS MILK                  78%
SUN-TETON-MARIAS                65%
SMITH-JUDITH-MUSSELSHELL       104%
UPPER YELLOWSTONE               92%

BELOW ARE CONDITIONS AS OF APRIL 4...2016 FOR SOME INDIVIDUAL SNOTEL
SITES FOR BASINS IN MONTANA. THE INFORMATION PROVIDED FOR EACH SITE
INCLUDES SITE ELEVATION...CURRENT SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...MEDIAN SWE
FOR THE DATE...MEDIAN PEAK SWE...AVERAGE DATE OF THE MEDIAN PEAK
SWE...CURRENT SWE AS A PERCENT OF MEDIAN...CURRENT SWE AS A PERCENT OF
THE MEDIAN PEAK...CURRENT SNOW DEPTH AND THE CURRENT SNOW DENSITY.

ADDITIONALLY...A BASIN-WIDE PERCENT OF AVERAGE SWE IS PROVIDED. THIS
IS AN ABBREVIATED LIST...ONLY THOSE SITES WITH THE MAXIMUM...NEAREST
TO MEDIAN...AND THE MINIMUM PERCENT SWE FOR EACH BASIN ARE PROVIDED.
THE LIST IS SORTED BY MAJOR RIVER BASIN.

SNOTEL SITE         ELEV CURR   MED   MED   MED PK  PCT  PCT SNOW  SNOW
                          SWE   SWE  PEAK    DATE   MED PEAK DPTH  DENSITY
KOOTENAI RIVER BASIN
 BANFIELD MOUNTAIN  5600 14.1   17.3   17.4  APR 06  82   81   38    36
 BEAR MOUNTAIN      5400 49.3   54.4   55.7  APR 20  91   89  107    46
 HAND CREEK         5035  8.0   11.1   11.1  MAR 31  72   72   18    42
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      97   93

FLATHEAD RIVER BASIN
 MANY GLACIER       4900  4.3    12.2  12.6  MAR 30  35   34   14    31
 NOISY BASIN        6040 46.3    40.2  44.0  APR 24 115  105  112    41
 STUART MOUNTAIN    7400 30.4    31.0  31.2  APR 07  98   97   78    38
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      98   94

UPPER CLARK FORK RIVER BASIN
 COMBINATION        5600  0.0     4.0   4.5  MAR 25   0    0    0     0
 LUBRECHT FLUME     4680  0.0     1.1   4.8  MAR 09   0    0    0     0
 NEVADA RIDGE       7020 12.6    14.2  14.3  APR 06  89   88   38    33
 NORTH FORK JOCKO   6330 38.8    41.3  42.5  APR 11  94   91   96    40
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      95   88

BITTERROOT RIVER BASIN
 DALY CREEK         5780  7.9     9.1   9.7  MAR 29  87   81   24    33
 SKALKAHO SUMMIT    7250 19.2    21.8  22.2  APR 10  88   86   50    38
 TWIN LAKES         6400 36.4    35.7  35.7  APR 04 102  102   81    45
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      88   86

LOWER CLARK FORK RIVER BASIN
 HOODOO BASIN      6050   36.2  39.4  40.1   APR 18  92   90    94   39
 HUMBOLDT GULCH    4250    7.2   8.7  10.1   FEB 23  83   71     M    M
 LOLO PASS         5240   22.9  26.7  27.1   APR 1   86   85    55   42
 LOOKOUT           5140   21.0  26.1  26.6   MAR 27  80   79    54   39
BASIN INDEX (%)                                     106   97

JEFFERSON RIVER BASIN
 BLOODY DICK        7600 14.0    11.1  11.4  APR 08 126  123    43    33
 CALVERT CREEK      6430  5.4     6.9   7.5  MAR 24  78   72    15    36
 DARKHORSE LAKE     8600 31.1    26.8  31.2  MAY 11 116  100    85    37
BASIN INDEX (%)                                     106   97

MADISON RIVER BASIN
 ALBRO LAKE          8300 17.7    18.1  20.0 APR 23  98   88    55    32
 BLACK BEAR          8170 28.2    37.0  37.4 APR 30  76   75    92    31
 WEST YELLOWSTONE    6700 10.3    10.0  10.2 APR 01 103  101    30    34
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      96   89

GALLATIN RIVER BASIN
 CARROT BASIN      9000   24.6  25.5  28.9   MAY 07  96   85    81    30
 LICK CREEK        6860   10.3  11.5  11.5   APR 05  90   90    33    31
 LONE MOUNTAIN     8880   18.1  17.0  18.9   MAY 11 106   96    53    34
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      98   89

MISSOURI HEADWATERS
 CALVERT CREEK     6430    5.4   6.9   7.5   MAR 24  78   72    15    36
 CLOVER MEADOW     8600   14.9  15.8  17.6   APR 25  94   85    52    29
 DARKHORSE LAKE    8600   31.1  26.8  31.2   MAY 11 116  100    85    37
BASIN INDEX (%)                                     101   93

HEADWATERS MISSOURI MAINSTEM
 BOULDER MOUNTAIN  7950   20.6   19.7 21.1   MAY 04 105   98    64    32
 FROHNER MEADOW    6480    6.9    7.5  7.6   APR 11  92   91    26    27
 NEVADA RIDGE      7020   12.6   14.2 14.3   APR 06  89   88    38    33
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      95   89

SMITH...JUDITH...AND MUSSELSHELL RIVER BASINS
 DEADMAN CREEK     6450   10.6   9.6   9.7   APR 02 110  109    28    38
 PORCUPINE         6500    4.0   5.9   6.0   APR 09  68   67    11    36
 SPUR PARK         8100   21.7  19.9  22.7   MAY 04 109   96    68    32
BASIN INDEX (%)                                     104   97

SUN...TETON AND MARIAS RIVER BASINS
 BADGER PASS       6900   32.6  30.2  31.3   APR 13 108  104    57    44
 DUPUYER CREEK     5750    0.0   8.9   9.2   APR 11   0    0     0     0
 WOOD CREEK        5960    6.1   8.5   8.6   APR 05  72   71    16    38
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      75   73

MISSOURI MAINSTEM RIVER BASIN
 BADGER PASS       6900   32.6  30.2  31.3   APR 13 108  104    57    44
 DUPUYER CREEK     5750    0.0   8.9   9.2   APR 11   0    0     0     0
 PICKFOOT CREEK    6650   10.3   9.6   9.7   MAR 20 107  106    28    37
 ROCKY BOY         4700    0.0   3.5   4.4   MAR 12   0    0     0     0
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      90   85

ST. MARY AND MILK RIVER BASINS
 FLATTOP MTN.      6300   40.9  42.5  43.4   APR 13  96   94   111    37
 MANY GLACIER      4900    4.3  12.2  12.6   MAR 30  35   34    14    31
 ROCKY BOY         4700    0.0   3.5   4.4   MAR 12   0    0     0     0
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      78   75

UPPER YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN
 BURNT MTN         5880    2.1   4.6   4.8   MAR 25  46   44     6    35
 FISHER CREEK      9100   28.4  30.8  34.4   MAY 12  92   83    82    35
 S FORK SHIELDS    8100   14.0  15.6  19.6   MAY 13  92   71    47    30
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      92   83

LOWER YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASIN
 EVENING STAR      9200   24.9  23.8  25.6   MAY 12 105   97    75    33
 SUCKER CREEK      7760    9.6  11.8  12.7   APR 24  81   76    41    23
 TIE CREEK         6870    3.0   5.5   5.6   APR 08  55   54    21    33
BASIN INDEX (%)                                      92   85


THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS A GENERALIZED SUMMARY OF SNOWMELT FLOOD
POTENTIAL. ABOVE NORMAL FUTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND RAPID MELT WILL INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOOD
POTENTIAL. BELOW NORMAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND GRADUAL OR
INTERMITTENT FREEZING AND THAWING WILL DECREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
CURRENT ASSESSMENT. ADDITIONALLY...WHEN THE REMAINING FROZEN RIVERS
AND STREAMS THAW...ICE JAMS MAY DEVELOP CAUSING HIGHER RIVER LEVELS
AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. ICE JAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH APRIL.

PROJECTIONS OF RIVER STAGES ARE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVED STATES OF
STREAMFLOW...SOIL MOISTURE...AND SNOW PACK...COUPLED WITH FUTURE
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AND ANTICIPATED OPERATIONAL
HYDROLOGIC CHANGES SUCH AS RESERVOIR RELEASES AND CANAL DIVERSIONS.
OUTLOOKS ARE PROVIDED FOR LONG-RANGE PROJECTIONS...WEEKS TO
MONTHS...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE. FORECASTS ARE PROVIDED FOR SHORT-TERM
PROJECTIONS...DAYS...BASED ON FUTURE FORECASTED PATTERNS OF
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE. THE UNCERTAINTY OF THESE PRODUCTS
VARIES FROM SEASON TO SEASON AND SITE TO SITE. IN RECENT YEARS,
OUTLOOK CRESTS HAVE BEEN ABOVE THE OBSERVED CREST ABOUT AS OFTEN AS
THEY HAVE BEEN BELOW THE OBSERVED CREST. THE UNCERTAINTY OF
FORECASTS TENDS TO BE LESS THAN THE UNCERTAINTY OF OUTLOOKS DUE TO
THEIR SHORTER LEAD TIME. USERS OF THESE PRODUCTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CONTACT THEIR NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR
CONTINUED UPDATES OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHICH CAN HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON FLOOD PLANNING AND FLOOD FIGHTING ACTIVITIES.

OUTLOOK NUMBERS FOR LOCATIONS NOT REPRESENTED IN NWS AHPS PRODUCTS
ARE NOT BEING ISSUED WITH THIS PRODUCT. FOR ADDITIONAL QUANTITATIVE
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO AHPS PRODUCTS FOR PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS OF POTENTIAL FLOODING. REFER TO FLOOD FORECASTS...IF ANY
ARE CURRENTLY ISSUED...FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ONGOING OR ANTICIPATED
FLOODING.

$$

.END/BRITTON


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