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FNUS28 KWNS 272054
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

MID-LEVEL RIDGING INITIALLY ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARDS TOWARDS THE PLAINS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RELATED TO THIS RIDGE BREAKDOWN...CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...BRINGING STRONGER
WEST/SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE REGION.

...D3/FRI-D7/TUE -- GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
ROCKIES...
WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL ALSO ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. ONGOING HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL ONLY
FURTHER BOOST FUEL RECEPTIVENESS...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS. FAVORABLE PW VALUES AND LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL ENCOURAGE A DRY-LIGHTNING THREAT...AND
THE ONGOING 10-PERCENT AREAS ARE MAINTAINED WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

INCREASING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL OVERSPREAD
DRY AIR SITUATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAC NW...NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO ENHANCE THE FIRE-WEATHER THREAT THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE FIRE
CONCERNS FOLLOWING PERIODS OF DRY-THUNDER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION. THE 40-PERCENT AREAS ARE MAINTAINED WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...AND PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN/GORGE MAY REQUIRE
AN UPGRADE TO 70-PERCENT CRITICAL IN LATER FORECASTS.
ADDITIONALLY...DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A PERSISTENCE
OF BREEZY/DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ID ON D7/TUE...AND A 40-PERCENT AREA
IS ADDED ACCORDINGLY.

..PICCA.. 07/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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