Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 012011
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 031200Z - 091200Z

THE FIRE-WEATHER RISK IS FORECAST TO BE ENHANCED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS. THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVERSPREADING ANTECEDENT DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. MARGINAL FIRE-WEATHER AREAS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED EACH DAY FROM D5/THU THROUGH D8/SUN TO INDICATE
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
EXIST. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED SFC WINDS EXTEND TO THE CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL. INFLUXES OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF
THE SWRN CONUS...AND AREAS OF RELATIVELY LESS-FAVORABLE FUELS FOR
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NM/AZ...WILL TEND TO RESTRICT THE
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF GREATER FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL. THESE FACTORS
PRECLUDE CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME...THOUGH CRITICAL AREAS
MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS OVER AREAS WHERE DRY
FUELS EXIST.

..COHEN.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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