Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 292046
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 061200Z

IN THE MID LEVELS...MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NWRN CONUS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE A
RIDGE AFFECTS AREAS FARTHER E. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ADVANCING
THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY ENHANCE
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SFC WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT
BASIN AND CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...AN ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER
RISK MAY EVOLVE ACROSS SOME OF THESE AREAS AMIDST LOW SFC RH.

THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS --
AND POTENTIALLY BORDERLINE-CRITICAL CONDITIONS -- MAY OCCUR FROM
CNTRL/NRN NV TO E-CNTRL WY ON D5/WED AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE NWRN-CONUS
CYCLONIC-FLOW PATTERN. DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND THE STRENGTH OF
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW YIELD UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHERMORE...THE BULK OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT NO MORE THAN MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WOULD
ALIGN WITH LOW RH. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS OTHER AREAS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE
CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE D3/MON-D8/SAT PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY
FOR MIDDLE/LATTER PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER...DISPARITIES
AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS...COUPLED WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS TO COMBINE WITH LOW RH AS DEPICTED BY THE
BULK OF THESE SOLUTIONS...PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC
DELINEATIONS AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 08/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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