Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FNUS28 KWNS 302026
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

ERN CONUS TROUGH/WRN CONUS RIDGE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH -- ROUGHLY FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES -- AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH
THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER ERN NORTH AMERICA.
HOWEVER...DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH GENERALLY AT OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DECENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS SUCH...LARGE-SCALE WIND-DRIVEN FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL INCONSISTENCY WITH
THE LACK OF LARGER SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULTING IN A LESS PREDICTABLE
PATTERN. REGARDLESS...ISOLATED DRY TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...STARTING ACROSS NRN CA AND SW ORE ON D3/SAT AND
EXPANDING INTO CNTRL/ERN ORE AND ADJACENT CNTRL ID AND NW NV ON
D4/SUN THROUGH D6/TUE. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT A POSSIBLE
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AFTER D6/TUE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE AND/OR TIMING IS LOW GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE.

..MOSIER.. 07/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.