Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 172038
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 191200Z - 251200Z

THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL COME WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD TO THE CNTRL CONUS THROUGH
MID-WEEK AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
THIS FLOW WILL OVERLIE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS TO ENHANCE THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK FROM THE SWRN STATES AND THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE AREAS OF DRY FUELS EXIST.

...D5/MON...
INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NV TO PARTS OF SERN CA AND NWRN AZ
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRENGTHENING OF SFC WINDS AMIDST LOW RH TO
ELEVATE THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY
STRONG WINDS IS TOO LIMITED FOR A CRITICAL AREA.

...D6/TUE...
THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
OFFERS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL EMERGE OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU AND VICINITY TO GENERATE
STRONG SFC WINDS AMIDST LOW RH. THIS WARRANTS CRITICAL DESIGNATION
FOR NRN/CNTRL AZ AND VICINITY. THE FIRE WEATHER RISK MAY ALSO BE
HEIGHTENED ELSEWHERE FROM PORTIONS OF THE SWRN STATES AND CNTRL
GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
STRONG WINDS IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD ENSUE NORTH OF THE CRITICAL
AREA INTO PORTIONS OF UT AND WRN CO...THOUGH THE LIMITED
AVAILABILITY OF FAVORABLY DRY FUELS FOR FIRE SPREAD PRECLUDES
CRITICAL DELINEATION.

...D7/WED...
A BROADER AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS
THE STRONGER FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS
THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS...ENCOURAGING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM ERN
AZ EWD TO PARTS OF W TX...AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND ERN CO.

...D8/THU...
THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRE WEATHER RISK TO REMAIN
ENHANCED OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AS STRONG FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE
TROUGH POTENTIALLY LINGERS AMIDST LOW RH. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ERN NM AND W TX...WHERE A MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY GREATER DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AT THIS TIME DIMINISHES
CONFIDENCE IN THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK...PRECLUDING CRITICAL
DELINEATION.

..COHEN.. 04/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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