Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS28 KWNS 272101
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
Upper pattern is expected to deamplify somewhat on D3/Wednesday and
D4/Thursday as a central CONUS upper trough shifts eastward and an
embedded shortwave trough moves across the lower Great Lakes and
Northeast. Northwesterly flow aloft will likely persist across the
majority of the CONUS on D5/Friday in the wake of the upper trough
before trending more westerly on D6/Saturday. Guidance suggests some
pattern reamplification is possible late this weekend/early next
week with a more substantial shortwave trough forecast to move
through the Pacific Northwest.
...D3/Wednesday: Central/Southern Plains...
Dry, post-frontal environment anticipated across the central and
southern Plains will likely contribute to fire weather conditions
across the region with afternoon RH values from the mid teens to mid
20s occurring amidst northerly winds from 15 to 20 mph. Guidance has
trended a bit weaker with the wind speeds and confidence in critical
conditions is too low to introduce a 70-percent area.
Dry, post-frontal conditions, characterized by afternoon RH values
in the mid 20 to mid 30s and northwesterly winds from 10 to 15 mph,
are expected across the region. These meteorological conditions are
consistent with a fire weather threat. However, uncertainty
regarding fuel conditions resulting from precipitation on
D4/Thursday precludes introducing any threat areas with this
...D5/Friday-D8/Monday: Central/Southern Plains...
Persistent westerly/northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to lee
troughing across the High Plains throughout the weekend. The
resulting tight surface pressure gradient will support breezy
conditions across the region each afternoon. Additionally, the
airmass in place will be dry, with afternoon RH values likely
dropping into the teens each day. These meteorological conditions
coupled with dry fuels will support a fire weather threat throughout
the weekend and possibly into early next week. Lack of consensus
precludes introducing any threat areas for D8/Monday but threat
areas were continued or introduced for portions of the region from
D5/Friday through D7/Sunday.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...