Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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739
FNUS21 KWNS 221621
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 221700Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM...

NO CHANGE IS WARRANTED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..SMITH.. 05/22/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0314 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/SRN CA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY. FURTHER E...UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS...AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SFC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN/DESERT
SOUTHWEST THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD
REDEVELOP SLIGHTLY EWD BY THIS EVENING WHILE DEEPENING. E OF THE
ROCKIES...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN
CONUS SHOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

...PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN/W-CNTRL NM...
AS BOTH THE UPPER AND SFC LOW APPROACH ERN AZ AND WRN NM TODAY...THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE. IN
ADDITION...A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER SRN AZ BY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AZ
AND WRN NM FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S AMIDST A
DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO THE 7-15 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH RELATIVELY DRY FINE FUELS...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS
RECEPTIVE FUELS OWING TO ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RH VALUES BEING THE MAIN FACTORS PRECLUDING A LARGER CRITICAL
AREA AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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