Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 201548

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Valid 201700Z - 211200Z


...Portions of the southern Plains...
Most recent guidance continues to indicate conditions in line with
the previous forecast, i.e. winds from 20 to 35 mph amidst minimum
RH values in mid to upper 20s across the TX panhandle. Temperatures
will be warmer farther south through the TX South Plains and into
the Edwards Plateau, with minimum RH values likely in the low 20s,
but winds will also be weaker. The resulting dissociation between
the strongest winds and the driest conditions, in tandem with only
marginally receptive fuels, will keep the fire weather threat
isolated with no changes needed to the previous outlook.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

As one mid-level impulse lifts north across the northern Plains and
upper Midwest, another will progress east from the southern Rockies
towards the central Plains. Meanwhile, a 120-130 kt mid-level jet
will approach the southern California coast. In response, the
large-scale pattern will feature cyclonic flow establishing across
much of the western two-thirds of the contiguous US. At the surface,
a lee cyclone will deepen slightly as it shifts across the Oklahoma
Panhandle into southern Kansas.

...Portions of the southern Plains...
With enhanced westerly mid-level flow over the region and a
tightened surface pressure gradient, winds will increase across
eastern New Mexico, western Texas, and western Oklahoma today.
Sustained westerly winds around 20-35 mph, gusting up to 40-45 mph,
will enhance the fire-weather threat some. However, despite deep
diurnal mixing, mid-level cooling will likely favor surface
temperatures in the 50s/60s across the windiest locations. In turn,
RH values will generally stay above 25 percent. Considering the
marginal nature of fuels across much of the region, only locally
elevated concerns are expected at this time.

...Please see for graphic product...

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