Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 241637
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WY...

...SRN AND CENTRAL WY...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN NV INTO ERN ID AND MUCH OF WY AND
PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN MT...

THE ELEVATED AREA WAS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER CO VALLEY
WHERE MARGINALLY LOW RH AND BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY...PARTS OF NRN WY AND SRN MT WERE REMOVED FROM THE
ELEVATED AREA AS RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE
15-20 PERCENT THRESHOLD...AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15
MPH.  FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL MT INTO E-CNTRL
MT...RH VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL /15-25 PERCENT/ BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE STRONGER AT 15-25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WHERE FUELS REMAIN
DRY...ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN.. 07/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0623 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS CNTRL
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/SRN PLAINS. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.

...CNTRL/ERN MT...FAR WRN ND...
MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BUT A VERY DRY AIRMASS /PW VALUES AROUND 0.45 INCH --
BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE/ WILL STILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW
20 PERCENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE THE DAY 1 FIRE OUTLOOK...ANTECEDENT
PRECIPITATION INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FUEL CONDITIONS. A
CRITICAL AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS BUT OPTED TO
LEAVE IT OUT FOR THIS FORECAST. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE.

...WY...SERN ID...
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS CNTRL
AND WRN PORTIONS OF WY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SERN ID. DRY CONDITIONS AND DEEP MIXING WILL HELP PUSH RH VALUES
BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PROBABLE OVER
SW/CNTRL WY WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

...NE/CNTRL/SW UT...S-CNTRL/SRN NV...
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY IS LIKELY OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. SWLY WIND SPEEDS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 MPH BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. THESE DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS WILL FOSTER AN
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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