Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240607 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 207 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A MAINLY-DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
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LOW STRATUS PILING UP ON THE LAURELS AND INTO WESTERN WARREN CO. THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST DO SEEM TO BE INCHING EASTWARD JUST EVER SO SLIGHTLY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE DECREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE SFC RIDGE STARTING TO MOVE IN. HOWEVER...THE UPSLOPE FLOW LASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. MINS MAY BE HELD UP IN THE FAR WEST AND EAST DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. SUNLIGHT AND MIXING SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO MIX AWAY AND THE CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD MOVE A BIT QUICKER TO THE EAST. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE NEARING AND COULD DIM THE SUN AFTER THE EXPECTED CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN/OPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD INTO ATLANTIC CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME A MORE PROMINENT ROLE INFLUENCING SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS FOR DAY 2. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERALL WITH NO RAIN...MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND LOWER WINDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE IS PROBABLY WITH MIN TEMP FCST WITH DELICATE BALANCE BTWN DIURNAL OR RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER SFC RIDGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE POTENTIAL VERIFICATION RISK IS LKLY TO THE DOWNSIDE BASED ON CONS FCST WHICH GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE WARMER NAM/EC MOS AND THE COLDER GFS MOS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKING FROM KY/WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS OVERALL QUITE TRANQUIL FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUTUMN HERE IN THE NE U.S. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY ON /SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT/ WILL BE A MODERATELY STRONG...BUT DRY UPPER SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ESE ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS /AND AN INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AS THE CFRONT APPROACHES. WEST TO WNW WINDS SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT COULD GUST BETWEEN 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. MENTIONED JUST LOW CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS UP NORTH...WITH ANY PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL PENN BEING IN THE FORM OF SCTD SPRINKLES LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM AN ANTICIPATED SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS. ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN MTNS SUNDAY WITH SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND 5-7F COOLER THAN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE TEMP DEPT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEEK AHEAD WILL LIKELY COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A MDTLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS MAY SEE HIGH TEMP DEPARTURES OF NEARLY +20F. THE PRIMARY RAIN-MAKER /IF WE CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT/ COMES DURING THE MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH... BENEATH A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE SHEARING OUT TO THE ENE ACROSS THE GLAKES AND SERN CANADA. QPF APPEARS TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH THIS TUESDAY NIGHT-WED NIGHT FEATURE. LATEST ENSEMBLES AND 12Z U.S./EURO OPERATIONAL MODELS POINT TWD GENERALLY 0.10 OF AN INCH OR LESS. A MINOR COOL DOWN AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAIN AVIATION CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND KJST CAUSED BY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH DIURNAL COOLING OF BLYR. SATL LOOP AT 05Z SHOWS A BAND OF STRATOCU EXTENDING FROM KERI TO KJST AND NAM/RAP OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR THE W MTNS THRU DAWN. ALTHOUGH KBFD IS CLEAR AT 05Z...MDL SOUNDING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS THERE BTWN 10Z-12Z. ELSEWHERE...DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDS ACROSS EASTERN PA THIS AM DESPITE A STRATOCU DECK ARND 4KFT. AT KUNV AND KAOO...CAN/T RULE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARND DAWN. DIURNAL HEATING AND RESULTING MIXING OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD

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