Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 020159 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 959 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER EVENING TO CLOSE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND OVER CENTRAL PA...AFTER SOME EARLIER HEAVY DOWNPOURS TRACKED ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS... AND EVEN THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS (LANCASTER COUNTY). THESE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH TRACKED INTO THE CATSKILLS THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER FARTHER SOUTH TRACKING FROM THE WV PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN MD. A THIRD UPPER TROF IS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST PA FROM NRN KY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OH...AND MAY STILL TOUCH OFF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES. MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS WELL WEST OF CENTRAL PA...OCCURRING WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AND EASTERN INDIANA THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS ARE CROSSING LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR...DESTINED FOR NY STATE...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH WARREN COUNTY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF MY CWA OVERNIGHT. POPS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN AS PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY APPROACHES. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND LLVL MOISTURE ABUNDANT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THIS MUGGY AIR MASS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT /WITH SHARP MSTR- PW GRADIENT/ WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM LATE TUE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY POTNL TSTM HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS. CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION LKLY ONGOING AT 12Z ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OVERNIGHT LOW STRATUS/FOG SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION EARLY TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK TO POOR...THE MODELS SHOW A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLY MID-LVL FLOW AND DEEP LYR SHEAR. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PCPN/INTENSITY AS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME ORGANIZATION INTO LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS. THIS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST AN ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT...WARRANTING AN UPGRADE BY SPC TO A CATEGORICAL /SLGT/ RISK DESIGNATION. THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN AN UPDATED HWO. EARLY CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK FOR A WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH FCST HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VLY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD FEATURE A COOLER/DRYING TREND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PWS FALLING AOB NORMAL BY 12Z WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST TUE NIGHT ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO A NOTICABLY DRIER AIRMASS FOR MIDWEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NIGHT WILL DIP TO NEAR 50F IN THE NORTHERN MTNS TO AROUND 60F IN THE SE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THU INTO FRI...ALLOWING MORE HUMID AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LIFTING INTO S CANADA ON FRI...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ALONG BEHIND. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...AN AREA OF HIGHER PWATS /1-2"/ SURGES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THEN INTO PA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AT SAME TIME A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING FRI NIGHT IN THE NW AND SPREADING AREAWIDE ON SAT. BEHIND THE FRONT...AIRMASS CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK ABOUT 10F...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...MORNING LOWS SHOULD DIP WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS THE LOSS OF HEATING RAISED THE STABILITY AND PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK WAVE HAS LEFT US IN A LULL. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS APPROACHING FROM OHIO AND IS TOUCHING OFF SOME SHOWERS TO THE WEST. NAM BLOSSOMS THIS AREA AS THE SWRLY FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY OVERHEAD. BUT WILL LEAV IT MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE NW. THE 70PLUS DEWPOINTS AND UPSLOPE INTO THE WRN MTS WILL CREATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE THERE. THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE MAINLY VFR. A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWRD OVER THE LOWER LAKES LATER IN THE DAY WILL MEAN THE AREA WILL STAY IN THE WARM-SECTOR AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE A BETTER FOCUS FOR NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE EVENING AS IT MOVES SEWRD ACROSS CENTRAL PA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG...OTHERWISE VFR. FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF PM TSTMS WEST. SAT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD FROPA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...DANGELO

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