Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCTP 021242 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 842 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL PA TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
830 AM UPDATE... TWEAKED SKY AND FOG A LITTLE BASED ON LATEST VIZ SHOTS. PREV... 11.3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS CENTRAL PA. LACK OF MIXING BENEATH SFC RIDGE AXIS...COMBINED WITH LOWERING OCTOBER SUN ANGLE...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PERSISTING IN SOME SPOTS UNTIL EARLY AFTN. MDL SOUNDING DO IMPLY A BRIGHTER AFTERNOON...WITH PT-MSUNNY SKIES LIKELY. WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING OVERHEAD...HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR ZERO TODAY. ENS MEAN 925 TEMPS BTWN 14-18C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS THIS AFTN IN THE L70S MOST SPOTS...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS RELATIVE TO NORMAL OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWRD ALONG THE E COAST WILL KEEP CENTRAL PA DRY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOIST SERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING OF BLYR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO DEVELOPING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT. HIGHER THAN NORMAL DWPTS WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE L/M50S. MDLS HAVE COME IN LINE WITH TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT DRAWS A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS /2-3SD ABV NORMAL IN THE 00Z GEFS/ INTO CENTRAL PA FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND LG SCALE FORCING IMPLIED BY MDL 500-300 Q-VEC CONVERGENCE...HAVE RAISED POPS TO ARND 90 PCT FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL PLUME MEMBERS OF THE SREF AND GEFS ARE INDICATING MEASURABLE RAIN FRI NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MDL SPREAD REMAINS LOW THRU THE WEEKEND...ALL INDICATING COLD FRONT EXITING EASTERN PA ARND 12Z SAT. CAN/T RULE OUT LINGERING SHRA ARND DAWN. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING AND ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A DRY WEEKEND. MDL BLYR WIND FIELDS ALL INDICATE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA OVR NW WARREN CO. ENS MEAN 850TEMPS INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST WX SINCE LAST SPRING WITH MAX TEMPS FROM ONLY NEAR 50F OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE L60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE SFC HIGH WILL NOT PASS OVR THE REGION...SO CONDS NOT IDEAL FOR RAD COOLING...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT FROST/FREEZE ISSUES SAT OR SUN NIGHT OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. INCREASING MDL SPREAD/FCST UNCERTAINTY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF DIGGING TROF OVR THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS THROUGH. HOWEVER...CAN/T GO MORE THAN LOW CHC OF PRECIP ON ANY DAY DUE TO TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z TAFS SENT. CONDITIONS GOING BETWEEN LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG. LIGHT SE FLOW. LIGHT E/SE WIND DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR QUICK CLEARING/DISSIPATION OF THE FOG AND ANY MORNING STRATUS AFTER SUNRISE. BUT BY LATE MORNING CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE TO VFR. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL BE A SRLY WIND WHICH COULD MAKE LLWS ON FRIDAY....BUT GUSTS WILL BE MORE-LIKELY AS MIXING BRINGS THOSE STRONG 30-35KT WINDS DOWN. THUNDER IS EXPECTED LATE FRI AND THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER SAT AM IN THE EAST. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM SHOWERS ERN AREAS. BREEZY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS E OF THE MTNS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS OVER N/WRN AREAS. SUN-MON...MVFR CIGS PSBL NW...OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.