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189
FXUS61 KCTP 141952
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
352 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid for many days
* Afternoon and evening focused showers and thunderstorms are
  expected into the early evening hours.
* Flooding possible almost anywhere east of State College and
  Altoona before midnight.
* Tuesday still looks like the driest day of the next seven with
  a brief visit from high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Still focused on flooding as the main issue of the next 8 hrs.
Many hot spots around the CWA, but certainly hottest over
Lycoming/Sullivan/Columbia counties. But, there are 2-3 other
spots already that have needed a Flash Flood warning. Given
that the heaviest of the rain seems to be sliding to the east of
UNV-AOO right now, it is likely more stable to the west and they
may be out of the woods. However, latest HRRR does redevelop a
little deep convection over Centre Co in a couple of hours. We
will consider dropping some of the watch, but not sure it is
wise to do so until closer to 5 or 6 PM allowing the trend to
become more certain.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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The rain should be over for all but really isolated spots after
sunset most everywhere, and by 11 PM in the far SE. Then, we`ll
just be watching for the fog to form. Have drawn a widespread
fog over all of the CWA tonight. A dense fog advy appears
likely, but we`ll wait for the fog to show it`s hand for that to
be posted. Very slightly drier air is moving in from the NW.

Tuesday appears very much dry for the great portion of the CWA.
However, the high pressure advancing from the NW is not strong
at all, and the southern border will still be at risk for sct
SHRA/TSRA. Virtually no risk of wind/hail tmrw, but still a SLGT
risk of excessive rainfall. The locations that have thus far
(330 PM) received the most rain/worst flooding have a very low
chc of rainfall. However, Lancaster Co will be a close call for
additional rainfall over the area getting too much right now.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Latest hires guidance/12Z HREF 3hr PMM shifts heavy rain threat
to the south of the MD line for Tuesday afternoon. This should
result in a reduced ERO risk with later updates from WPC. The
flash flood risk ramps back up on Wednesday with the return of
deep moisture/forcing after the reprieve on Tuesday. The
remainder of the week looks seasonably warm/humid with daily
rounds of scattered convection during the afternoon and evening.
Heat risk peaks in the major category on Thursday afternoon with
max HX values peaking around between 98-102F in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley. There still appears to be a minimum in POPs
on Saturday with more unsettled wx Sunday into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Approach of a deeper upper trough from the west is a good
signal that storms will form again midday Monday. Will just
mention after 16Z. Most of the storms will be SE of IPT-UNV-AOO
depending on timing of the trough axis, but a few are possible
to the NW of that area.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct PM TSRA poss, mainly south.

Thurs-Fri...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ012-018-019-
025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo