Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 300928 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 528 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will push across Pennsylvania this Memorial Day. A ridge of high pressure will build east into the region for midweek. A slow moving cold front will likely push into the region from the Great Lakes by late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Batch of light to moderate rain exiting eastern Pa at 09z assoc with passage of weak shortwave. Radar trends and latest HRRR suggest lingering -shra ovr our eastern counties will taper off by arnd dawn. Focus will then shift toward weak cold front pushing into the region from Ohio. No precip noted along this boundary at 09z. However, diurnal heating/pre-frontal destabilization should result in sct convection developing along cold front later today. Both NCAR and SSEO paint ball displays indicate initial development of shra/tsra across the central mtns by early aftn, with activity shifting into the Susq Valley during late aftn and early evening. Relatively modest CAPE and wind shear profiles point toward a limited risk of svr wx. Slightly stronger mid lvl flow indicated across northeast Pa, where SPC paints a marginal svr wx risk late today. Guidance continues to indicate a fair amount of mid/high cloudiness streaming north from remnants of td bonnie over southeast PA...while a fair amt of sunshine appears likely over the rest of central Pa. Highs should range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Any lingering evening shra/tsra across eastern Pa should diminish by late tonight, as weak cold front slowly pushes thru. Clearing skies, light wind and wet ground in spots will likely lead to patchy fog late tonight. Ridging at sfc and aloft build into central Pa Tuesday, bringing fair and warm wx. Mdl soundings support msunny skies and high temps from the u70s ovr the Allegheny Plateau, to the m80s ovr the Susq Valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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All med range guidance still indicating fair/warm wx Wednesday, as upper lvl ridge crests ovr the region. Low lvl flow expected to turn to the east, likely resulting in a slightly cooler day across the eastern half of the state. Not much spread noted in med range guidance thru late week, with bulk of solutions tracking upper low north of Pa, as slow-moving sfc cold front works into Central Pa either late Thu or Friday. Highest (chc) Pops in the extended fcst will coincide with passage of this cold front. However, both ECENS and NAEFS indicating a deepening upper trof across the Grt Lks/Ohio Vall next weekend, which would likely mean cooler and potentially showery wx for Pa.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper level trough will push across the region overnight and Monday. A ridge of high pressure will build in for midweek. The two biggest aviation concerns through daybreak will be 1) weak precipitation continuing over the southeast which will lead to cig restrictions at LNS/MDT, and 2) clearing over the western higher terrain that will bring sct vsby restrictions that should bring BFD/JST down to MVFR with localized IFR vsbys elsewhere. Light rain over the SE will come to an end between 09z-12Z...with lower cigs persisting into mid morning. Fog that develops elsewhere will also mix out by 13-14z. Overall, a VFR Memorial Day is in store for central PA, with just a chance for showers and isolated TSRA bringing potential for brief local reductions, mainly confined to se half of cwa. This will be followed by high pressure and more settled weather building into the region through midweek /with early morning patchy fog/. OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...Chance of showers/tstms west. A.M. cig reductions poss west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...RXR

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