Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 131833 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 133 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE POLAR VORTEX PUSHED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG BUT FAST MOVING SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BEHIND THE VORTEX. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND A STORM SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK A RIDGE MOVES IN ALOFT WITH MUCH WARMER AIR FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... ARCTIC AIR IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED STEADY IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY AND SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THE TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES SINCE SUNRISE. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE. THE STRONGER GUSTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CATEGORY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE CREATED WINDCHILLS IN THE -20 TO 0F RANGE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLDEST VALUES STILL TO COME. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE ORGANIZED AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... OVERNIGHT THE MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LOWER THE INVERSION HEIGHT...SHUTTING OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AND SHUTTING DOWN THE WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A FEW MORE DEGREES OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. GOING TO BE A VERY COLD MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE THEIR COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOW OF THE SEASON. THE HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES OFF FAST SUNDAY EVENING. BUT RETURN FLOW COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW COULD ARRIVE IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS MONDAY MORNING AS INDICATED IN SOME ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MONDAY FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED SOON. GOING TO BE INTERESTING MONDAY- TUESDAY WEATHER! && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... *IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: POTENTIAL WINTER STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LGT SNOW ARRIVING MONDAY...AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST AND MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERRUNS RETREATING ARCTIC AIR MASS. HOWEVER...THE BIGGER CONCERN INVOLVES DIGGING UPPER TROF OVR THE MISS VALLEY AND ASSOC SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE APPALACHIANS. MDL SPREAD CONTINUES TO NARROW...WITH MOST RUNS TRACKING SFC LOW ACROSS EASTERN PA TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR RAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PA. GIVEN INHERENT MDL UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...WILL MAINTAIN RAIN/SNOW IN THE FCST FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA MON NIGHT-TUES. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON CONVERGING MDL SOLUTIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN PA...GIVEN RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT POTENTIAL. LATEST MDL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS USING NAEFS SUGGESTS MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BY TUES. WPC ALSO HAS HIGHLIGHTED SE PA FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY LATER NEXT WEEK...AS HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AND A PSBL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST OF PA. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ARCTIC AIR HAS BROUGHT COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION. SNOW SQUALLS ARE COMMON IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH IMPACTS ON KJST AND KBFD. SOME OF THE STRONGER LAKE STREAMERS AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MADE TO THE MARYLAND BORDER IN SOUTHEASTERN PA. SO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. GOOD GUST SPREADS TOO WHICH AFFECT TAKEOFF/LANDINGS. GUSTS OVER 30KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. IFR AND MVFR MOST OF WEST. VFR WITH TIME MVFR IN CENTRAL AREAS. MOSTLY VFR WITH TIMES MVFR WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IN SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THINGS SHOULD BE MUCH NICER SUNDAY...THOUGH A TAD COLD. NEED A HEATED JOY STICK. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY DRIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT SO THE PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER WITH VFR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MOVE IN FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. SNOW AND ASSORTED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT FLYING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED MAINLY VFR. MON...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. MON NIGHT AND TUE...SNOW LIKELY WRN HALF OF PENN...WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW IN THE SE. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SET IN. LLWS POSS SE. WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...ESP OVER THE WEST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ004>006-037- 041-042. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ010>012-017- 018-024-033. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ019-025>028- 034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024- 033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...GRUMM

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