Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 280317
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
817 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

PACIFIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER COLORADO UNDER A WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MANY AREAS. ON FRIDAY...AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...SO COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WAVE CLOUDS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO THIS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOWING
WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TONIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE. APPEARS THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

BROAD BELT OF ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MTN REGION WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS AND MOSTLY 40S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PROGGED BY
THE MODELS LOOK REASONABLY SOUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF MTN WAVE
CLOUDINESS EAST OF THE MTNS COULD CERTAINLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON THEIR THICKNESS...BUT FOR NOW WILL COUNT ON THE
ENHANCED W-SWLY FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE TO WARM THINGS UP ACROSS
THE PLAINS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...A MUCH BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY WLY WINDS DEVELOPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS APPROACHING
70 MPH ON THE HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS ON THE FRONT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FLOW ALOFT
EASES SOME ON SUNDAY AND MORE SO MONDAY AS IT BACKS TO MORE OF A
SWLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA. WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF
MOIST PACIFIC AIR DARTING EWRD OVER NWRN COLORADO BY SUN MORNING.
AS A RESULT COULD SEE THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE
PARK AND GORE RANGES THRU THE DAY. HOWEVER MODEL QPF AND SNOW ACCUM
AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EAST
OF THE MTNS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT UP OVER ERN WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA IS FCST TO DROP INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND EVENTUALLY BACK UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF THE
DENVER BY MIDDAY OF SUNDAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
REACHED BEFORE 15Z ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA AND ALONG THE I-
25 URBAN CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY...IF NOT SOONER OVER NRN SECTIONS.
AIR BACKING IN LOOKS DRY...SO NO PCPN AND NOT MUCH LOWER CLOUD
COVER. ONCE THIS COOL AIRMASS BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD SEE
THE STG AND GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS SHUTTING
DOWN.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DIG THE WEST
COAST LOW SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE LOW OFF THE CNTRL
CALIFORNIA COAST. ALL THIS MAKES A DIFFERENCE ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM OVER COLORADO. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A STRONGER PUSH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MORE
RIDGING OVER COLORADO AND THUS LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT AND NO INDICATION
OF PCPN ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. FOR NOW WILL CONFINE ANY PCPN
CHANCE ALBEIT LOW ONES...TO THE HIGH COUNTRY.. AND GRADUALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES EAST TO THE MTNS WITH A CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MID
AND CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS CO. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT KBJC...WEST WIND GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...COOPER



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