


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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879 FXUS65 KBOU 151131 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 531 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot again today with highs in the mid/upper 90s across the plains. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm across the far northeast corner of the state this afternoon. - Conditional severe storm threat across the I-25 corridor and plains on Wednesday, but low confidence at this time. - Active pattern continues into the weekend, with scattered afternoon showers and storms each day. Best chance of rain across the Front Range/Foothills and South Park most afternoons. && .UPDATE... Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Intriguing forecast pattern for the next couple of days, with one last day of hot temperatures before a potentially widespread (but highly conditional) severe threat evolves on Wednesday. Today should be relatively quiet across most of the forecast area, as drier air has worked into the region underneath a broad ridge. Across the higher elevations, there`s still enough moisture along with steep low/mid-level lapse rates for some weak convection this afternoon, with at least a few gusty showers or storms expected to drift into the I-25 corridor by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave is expected to track across southern Wyoming into southwestern Nebraska this afternoon, and a few stronger storms could develop across far northeastern Colorado where richer boundary layer moisture persists. With a narrow corridor of 20-30kt 500mb winds, there should be just enough CAPE/shear overlap to support a couple of multicell clusters or perhaps a brief supercell, though for the most part forecast guidance keeps stronger storms over Nebraska. By tonight, a cold front should push across the forecast area, bringing better surface moisture as far west as the urban corridor by Wednesday morning. Surface dew points should remain in the 50s Wednesday afternoon, with guidance suggesting as much as 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE along with 40-50kt effective layer shear. However, like many severe weather threats here, the setup is obscured somewhat by morning stratus. Both deterministic and statistical guidance favor a thick stratus deck Wednesday morning, which would certainly hamper surface heating/destabilization later in the day. As is often the case, I suspect that some high resolution guidance (HRRR/RAP) are too aggressive with their boundary layer mixing... and thus capping is going to be a significant hindrance on any severe threat if stratus is slow to erode. The SPC marginal risk seems appropriate at this time, but stay tuned for updates later today and Wednesday AM. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Mountain convection had an early start this morning, with storms initiating along the Continental Divide around 9AM. Temperatures are quickly climbing towards convective temperature across the plains, with multiple observation sites reporting 90+ degrees. As of 11:30 AM (Monday) ACARS soundings are showing just over 500 J/kg of MLCAPE, large dewpoint depressions, and DCAPE of over 1000 J/kg. This will be sufficient for thunderstorms to sustain themselves as they move onto the lower elevations, or for storms to develop once the convective temp is reached. These storms will be capable of bringing gusty outflows and dry microbursts between 30-40 mph, with a few as strong as 50-55 mph. With weak flow aloft, slow moving storms may bring some localized heavy rainfall (generally over the higher elevations), but with weak shear in place, storms are not expected to become severe, however, small hail will be possible. Cloud cover will help cool temperatures off this evening before clearing from west to east overnight. Flow aloft begins to increase on Tuesday as a shortwave moves across the northern Rockies. At the surface, a lee trough will stretch from across the plains of Colorado to South Dakota. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg with modest amounts of shear (30 to 40 kts) over the northern corner of Colorado in the afternoon/evening, where dewpoints will be in the 50s. This would support an isolated severe threat, with large hail and gusty winds being the main hazards. Elsewhere across the forecast area, scattered showers and weaker storms will be possible. A cold front/shortwave combo is expected to bring widespread precipitation and brief cooldown on Wednesday and Thursday. Some localized heavy rainfall will be possible as ensembles show PWAT values between 120-160% of normal from the Continental Divide eastward. A few stronger storms will be possible along and behind the front, especially along the northern plains where shear will be strongest, and the severe threat will be higher. Temperatures will feel cool compared to the rest of the week, but still climb into the mid to upper 80s across portions of the plains, with high 70s for areas along the Wyoming/Nebraska borders. By Friday, the ridge reamplifies and temperatures rebound to the 90s across the plains. Ensembles hold 90 degree temperatures steady for the foreseeable future. A more active pattern will continue through the forecast period with shortwaves passing through the upper-level flow, and scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible each afternoon. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/... Issued at 527 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR through the evening. Drainage winds will transition to a northwesterly direction later this morning and persist through most of the afternoon. At least a few gusty showers are forecast this afternoon, though overall coverage will be sparse. Main concern with these will be variable/gusty outflow winds during the mid/late afternoon hours. Winds should gradually turn to the north or northeast this evening, with a gradual moistening trend still expected. Guidance is in fairly good agreement developing a stratus deck between 08-11z tonight, with better odds at DEN compared to APA/BJC. At least a brief period of MVFR to IFR ceilings is expected at all of the terminals. Stratus should slowly rise and scatter out through Wednesday morning. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Hiris DISCUSSION...Bonner AVIATION...Hiris