000
FXUS65 KBOU 171011
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. AS THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST...SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION. ONLY LOCATION SEEING
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW IN THE FORECAST AREA IS SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. BY SUNRISE...THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE WAVE
TODAY. MODELS SHOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER JUST EXPECT AN INCREASE CLOUDS COVER. SUB
CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DRY AND LIFT WILL BE WEAK. WILL NOT MENTION AND
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAKING FOR LOWS ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS UPSTREAM OVER CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
LEADS TO STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVER COLORADO CAUSING THE STORM TRACK
TO BOW NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND
THICKNESS CHARTS SUPPORT GOING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EVEN WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK...HIGH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE SPRING
THAW/MUD SEASON IN THE HIGH COUNTRY NOT FAR OFF NOW. BY FRIDAY
EVENING MODELS OVERALL SHOW THE WESTERN TROUGH MARCHING EASTWARD...
WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER SWRN ARIZONA ALONG THE WAY. MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
FUELING A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS AND A SCATTERING OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SNOW LEVEL
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO PASS
LEVEL.

FOR SATURDAY MODELS SHOW THIS UPRIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING
ITS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGION
MOUNTAIN REGION WITH THE DENVER/BOULDER CWA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
OUT OF WYOMING EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH ITS PUSHING UP AGAINST THE
FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY PW VALUES
GRADUALLY RISE AND SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE PLAINS RISING WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW. BY AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST SFC BASED CAPE
IN THE AREA...ENOUGH TO FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS. MODEL
QPF ON SATURDAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES 10-14 DEGS F LOWER THAN THE DAY BEFORE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO GREATER CLOUD COVER.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THIS TROUGH WITH ITS MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR A 3-6DEG F WARMUP AND A RETURN TO MORE SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...LATE DAY HEATING AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ONCE
AGAIN BUBBLE UP IN THE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-
SHOWERS. PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT. GOING INTO THE
MONDAY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER THE REGION RETURNING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGS F ABOVE
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY WITH A WARMING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF
THE MTNS. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE HIGH COUNTRY...
BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DIP IN
TEMPERATURE WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR A SCATTERING OF LATE DAY SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 411 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

JUST EXPECT SCATTERED MID AND HIGHS CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY
CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FEET. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT AFTER 15Z. SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS LOW BECAUSE SOME MODELS SHOW A DENVER CYCLONE FORMING.
IF A CYCLONE FORMS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOME SORT OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT AT KDEN AND KBJC.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...MEIER