000
FXUS65 KBOU 011710
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING..I SLOWED THE TIMING
OF THE HIGHER POPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW TODAY...OVERALL SLGT CHC IN THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...WITH CHC POPS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SWLY TODAY AND THEN INCREASE TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA.  SO FAR MOST OF THE
CWA IS ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE
WY BORDER WHERE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER COUNTY
AND NWRN WELD COUNTY. APPEARS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND 12Z EXCEPT IN THE MTNS.

BY LATER THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE MTNS WHICH WILL REDUCE SNOW CHANCES.  BY LATE AFTN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO THE
MTNS.  SATELLITE DOES SHOW ENHANCEMENT OVER ARIZONA SO IT APPEARS
THAT THIS MOISTURE IS REAL.  THUS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW
ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS.  AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NOT SURE HOW THINGS ARE
GOING TO EVOLVE.  THE HRRR AND RAP SHOW SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE SRN
FOOTHILLS AND AFFECTING SRN AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EARLY HOURS.  THUS WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS OVER SRN AREAS OF CWA WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH. AS FOR
HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS N THE 20S OVER NERN CO EXCEPT OVER THE
FAR NERN CORNER WHERE READINGS MAY RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S.

OVERNIGHT SWLY FLOW WILL INTENSIFY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
MTNS.  PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL JET COULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER
SNOWFALL LATE TONIGHT IN ZN 31 AND PORTIONS OF ZN 33 ALTHOUGH MID
LVL TEMPS ARE WARMING QUITE A BIT WHICH COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.  OVER
NERN CO THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SSE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
STG DOWNSLOPING COMING OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH SHOULD DECREASE
PCPN CHANCES FM DENVER SOUTH TO THE PALMER DIVIDE.  CLOSER TO THE WY
BORDER THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE MORE SELY SO COULD STILL SEE A CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROGGED SPEEDS ARE IN THE 130 TO
160 KNOT RANGE AT JET LEVEL. BY TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
COLORADO. THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WELL INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL
VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA MONDAY...BUT IT BECOMES STRONGER BY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF UPWARD ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
MONDAY EVENING...THEN A COLD FRONT WITH UPSLOPE MOVES IN SOMETIME
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AT DAWN. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE PROGGED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE
IS BIT OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE REMAINS PRETTY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS FOR THE
PLAINS. MOISTURE IS PRETTY DEEP IN ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME QPF PROGGED OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOR THE PLAINS THERE IS SOME MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...WILL NOT ALTER THINGS TO
MUCH...MAY START THEM OVER THE PLAINS A BIT LATER ON MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NO HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW...BUT MOUNTAINS
MIGHT NEED SOMETHING. WE`LL SEE. FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS
ARE 4-11 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S EXPECTED HIGHS. TUESDAY`S HIGHS
BEHIND THE FRONT COOL BACK OFF 11-18 C FROM MONDAY`S. DEPENDING
HOW MUCH IT CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...WE COULD
GET BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS OUT ON THE FOR THAT PERIOD. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
GET THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN
FAIRLY WEAK WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING...IT ACTUALLY LOOKS PRETTY
DRY ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ALL
FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

TREND OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KDEN THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...IFR NO LONGER EXPECTED BUT MAINLY MVFR CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. BEST CHC OF SNOW LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF DIA NEAR
KAPA AND KBJC WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND THE MORE ELY BY THIS AFTN.
BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SELY AND THEN SLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER