000
FXUS65 KBOU 131655
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
955 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013

.UPDATE...MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SOME AREAS ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY AND HAVE SHOT PAST THEIR
FORECASTED HIGHS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
MORNING...TOUGH TO PICK OUT BECAUSE THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A WIND
SHIFT AT THIS TIME. EVENTUALLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND USHER IN COOLER AIR. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. BY EVENING...COULD
EVEN SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TOWARDS CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WILL TWEAK
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS TO KEEP UP THE
CHANGING TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 18Z. GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET TODAY AND MAY FALL AS LOW AS 6000 FEET
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM MST FRI DEC 13 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO IS PRETTY
DRY...BUT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR INTO COLORADO FROM THE NORTH TODAY.
THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BRING A BIT MORE
COOLING...CLOUDS...AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. ALL THIS IS PRETTY WELL COVERED BY THE GOING FORECAST.
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES...MORE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH...A BIT LESS WESTERLY WIND AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN LINE WITH
THE WARMER NAM MOS.

LONG TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. IT IS PRETTY STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENS A BIT SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED ON THE QG
VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS FOR THE THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PRETTY MUCH DOMINATED BY
DOWNSLOPING ALL FOUR PERIODS...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT SPEED
WISE...BUT PERHAPS A BIT STRONG OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. FOR
MOISTURE...SATURDAY IS FAIRLY DRY...BUT A BATCH OF MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. BY SUNDAY MORNING IT IS DRY AGAIN AND STAYS THAT WAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF
FIELDS SATURDAY...THEN A TAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON THE NAM ONLY
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AGAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ON ALL MODELS.
WILL GO WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THAT
IS IT. FOR TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE CLOSE TO TODAY`S
EXPECTED HIGHS. SUNDAY`S HIGHS WARM UP 3-5 C FROM SATURDAY`S. FOR
THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS KEEP THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA MONDAY...THEN WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY TUESDAY...THEN WESTERLY WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. ON THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS
HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE CWA. THE ECMWF BRINGS A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS NOT UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS INCOMING AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE AS COLD OR
COLDER THAN THAT OF LAST WEEK. IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND
JUST A COUPLE MODEL RUNS AGO...THE COLD AIR WAS ADVERTISED INTO
THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WILL BRING SOME MINOR POPS INTO THE MOUNTAINS
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS...BUT NOT A LOT.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY
MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS LOWERING ENOUGH TO REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...MEIER