972
FXUS61 KCAR 100532
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
132 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
A warm front approaches Sunday, then lifts to the north Sunday
night and Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
132 AM Update: Mostly clear skies continue across the forecast
area, though a few small patches of low level stratus can be
seen on current Nighttime Microphysics RGB satellite product
crossing through southern Aroostook county. Lowered min
temperature forecasts slightly and adjusted sky forecasts based
on these observations and trends.

Previous discussion:
Surface high pressure to the north ridges south across the
region later tonight through Friday. Aloft, the upper trof
across northern areas weakens tonight through Friday. Isolated
showers are still possible this evening. Otherwise, expect
mostly cloudy skies early tonight with clouds then decreasing
overnight. Generally expect partly sunny skies Friday. However,
diurnal heating and the remnants of the upper trof could also
help support an isolated afternoon shower. Low temperatures
tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 30s north, to
the mid to upper 30s Downeast dependent on how rapidly clouds
decrease overnight. High temperatures will generally range from
the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak shortwave crosses the area Friday night and Saturday.
Some isolated showers are possible with its passage. Lows Friday
night should be a few degrees below normal, mainly from the mid
30s to around 40. Highs on Saturday should be around 5-10
degrees below normal, generally in the lower to mid 50s.

Shortwave ridging then builds in Saturday night, with
associated subsidence keeping things dry. Lows Saturday night
should be a few degrees below normal.

The models are in good agreement that a closed low forms as a
trough pushes down into the eastern seaboard. However, they
differ on exactly where this closed low is located. Depending on
the location of this feature Sunday could be dry, or it could
feature isolated to scattered showers. Given the large spread in
model and ensemble solutions, have limited pops to slight
chance. Highs will be very dependent on where this closed low
tracks, for now going about 5 degrees below normal, but could
see how those temperatures could be 5 degrees cooler or warmer
than what is currently forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Model uncertainty remains the theme for the forecast Sunday
night through Thursday, as differences in handling of the closed
low early in the week, lead to differences in the timing and
strength of ridging behind it and then when the system behind
that ridging arrives.

Given this uncertainty ran with slight chance to low end chance
pops through the extended period.

Temperatures should trend from below to above normal during
this time frame, noting the temperature forecast is of below
normal confidence for this time frame given the high degree of
model spread.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SKC to continue through the rest of the night, with
cigs remaining VFR through the day on Friday even as afternoon
cumulus develop. Winds light and variable through the rest of
the night, becoming NE at 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon.
Cigs will likely remain VFR into Friday night with winds
becoming light and variable once more, though increasing cloud
cover from the south and east could lower towards MVFR late.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night-Tuesday...MVFR possible with any showers, otherwise
VFR. Very low confidence on specific timing of any MVFR
conditions during this time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
through Friday.

SHORT TERM: A light pressure gradient over the waters Friday
night through Monday night should limit sustained winds up to
around 10 kt and seas up to 3 ft. The gradient should tighten
somewhat on Tuesday with winds up to 15 kt and seas up to around
4 ft possible.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/Maloit