514
FXUS61 KCLE 101723
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
123 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger over central Ohio today and
Friday before lifting north Saturday ahead of low pressure
approaching the western Great Lakes. This low will lift across
the northern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday, dragging a
cold front through the region. This front will stall near the
Ohio Valley Monday before returning north through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid/upper shortwave trough stretches across the central and
southern Great Lakes early this morning. The trough axis will
gradually swing into the eastern Great Lakes through this
afternoon then slowly depart through New England by late Friday.
As the trough axis slowly moves east, the weak cold front
currently located near the south shore of Lake Erie will push
inland this morning. A few showers are ongoing near the front
across the western and central basins of Lake Erie at this time,
with radar and infrared satellite loops suggesting a weak surface
low or meso low over Lake Erie helping to drive these showers.
Maintained slight chance PoPs near the lakeshore through 12Z
until the front pushes inland. Greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected later this morning through this
afternoon along a line from roughly Meadville to Marion and
points south and east of there as low-level convergence along
the slowly sinking cold frontal boundary interacts with daytime
heating. There is little in the way of synoptic support today
since the mid/upper trough is departing other than the lingering
front, but quite a bit of sunshine and a moist low-level
environment characterized by dew points in the upper 60s/low 70s
will generate MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg this afternoon, so expect
scattered convection. Weak mid-level flow under 20 knots will
keep this disorganized and slow moving, so the main hazard will
be locally heavy rainfall given continued deep, warm cloud
layers and PWATs of 1.50 to 1.60 inches, but an isolated wet
downburst cannot be ruled out.

Convection will gradually diminish through the evening, and dry
conditions are expected tonight as the front settles toward
central Ohio and surface high pressure ridges down from the
northern/central Great Lakes. This high will continue to press
into the region Friday, so the front should remain just far
enough south of the region for most areas to stay dry. However,
maintained slight chance to chance PoPs in mainly southern areas
for widely scattered afternoon/evening convection given the
continued warm, humid airmass and front nearby. But, coverage
should be less than Thursday.

Highs in the low/mid 80s today will warm into the mid/upper 80s
Friday, with NW Ohio likely to see 90 again Friday. Humid
conditions will keep lows in the low to upper 60s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat will be on the increase to start the weekend as the frontal
boundary surges back north as a warm front Friday night and
Saturday in response to a strong mid/upper shortwave trough
progressing from the northern Plains into the western Great
Lakes. PoPs have trended down for Saturday despite strong
afternoon instability as warm mid-level temperatures should
limit convective coverage. The big story for Saturday will be
the heat as strong warm air advection boosts widespread highs
in the low 90s. This combined with dew points rising into the
low 70s will lead to heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range,
and the experimental NWS HeatRisk chart indicates a Major risk
(level 3 of 4) for heat related impacts Saturday. Please plan
accordingly to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air
conditioned places during outdoor activities Saturday.

The high heat will come to an end Saturday night and Sunday as
the upstream mid/upper shortwave trough lifts into the northern
Great Lakes and pushes a cold front into the region. Timing of
the frontal passage remains uncertain since most guidance
continues to suggest the lead shortwave deamplifying as it
ejects across the northern Great Lakes Saturday night followed
by a deeper trough for Sunday. This could slow the frontal
passage down and increase the chance for widespread
showers/storms Sunday. Stayed with NBM PoPs at this time, with
widespread chance PoPs Saturday night increasing to likely over
the eastern half of the area Sunday, but PoPs for Sunday have
been trending upward. A slower frontal passage will increase the
potential for locally heavy rain and a few severe storms Sunday,
so this will continue to be monitored. Showers/storms should
gradually move east of the region Sunday night.

Highs Sunday will be cooler in the mid/upper 80s, but still
humid, with lows remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday
night and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A familiar story will continue early next week as the front
from Sunday stalls near the region by Monday in response to
quasi-zonal flow aloft. This pattern will finally change
Tuesday and Wednesday as mid/upper ridging amplifies over the
central and eastern CONUS ahead of a strong mid/upper trough
diving into the northern Rockies and NW Plains. An associated
Bermuda High setting up near the Southeast U.S. coast will pump
heat and humidity back into the region on a deep southwesterly
flow, so expect the front to surge back north as a warm front by
Tuesday. Highs in the low/mid 80s Monday will warm back into
the upper 80s/low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with non-VFR
possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms through this
afternoon. Current radar and satellite observations suggest
CAK/YNG have the highest potential of seeing direct tsra impacts
later this afternoon and evening, as the lake breeze is already passing
through ERI/CLE. MFD will be on the fringe, thus kept vcts
mention, though low confidence in direct impacts precludes tsra
mention at this time. Otherwise, patches of dense fog may
develop once again overnight, mainly impacting MFD/CAK/YNG where
more widespread rain is more likely. Otherwise, will need to
watch remnant nocturnal convection towards the west for possible
Friday morning impacts at TOL.

Winds are generally favoring a west to southwest direction
ahead of the weak cold front/lake breeze, and favoring a north
to northwest direction behind the cold front/lake breeze, around
5 to 10 knots. Winds will become light and variable overnight
before favoring a southwest direction by late Friday morning,
around 5 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday in
showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR expected Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be variable and less than 10 knots through Friday
with onshore flow due to weak lake breeze during the afternoons.
A warm front lifts northeast across the Lake on Saturday, with
south to southwest flow developing thereafter, though generally
in the 5-10 knot range, with brief periods of around 15 knots at
times over the weekend. Winds tend to be west-northwest
following a weak cold frontal passage on Monday, then light and
variable on Tuesday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Saunders