Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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FXUS65 KCYS 250003
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
503 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Tonight...Satellite, radar and observation trends indicate that snow
continues to decrease in areal coverage and intensity, except across
the Nebraska panhandle where enhanced clouds and low visibilities in
snow suggest continuation of the winter storm warning for the
panhandle through midnight. Will also mention areas of blowing
snow across western Nebraska with blustery north winds. After
midnight, lift wanes and thus the midnight expiration of the winter
storm warning.

Over southeast Wyoming, snowfall has decreased in coverage and
intensity and model trends indicate that the winter weather advisories
can be dropped early, though will continue the advisories for the
Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges through 6 pm due to orographics.

Wednesday...Moist northwest flow aloft will continue the chance of
orographic snows over our Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, dry elsewhere.
With 700 mb temperatures progged near -16 Celsius, continued cold with
maximum temperatures from near 20 to near 30 degrees at lower elevations.

Wednesday night...Cyclonic flow aloft and enough moisture in the flow
to produce a chance of snow showers over our Snowy and Sierra Madre
Ranges, dry elsewhere due to lack of lift. Continued cold with 700
mb temperatures near -16 Celsius and snowpack.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

The 12Z medium range models indicate that the large scale flow will
undergo some changes during this period. Shortwave trough from Quebec
southwestward to the southern Great Basin will shift to the southeast
late this week and carve out a longwave trough from the Midwest to
the Atlantic coast this weekend. Meanwhile, a high amplitude upper
ridge will dominate areas from the Rockies westward. Shortwave energy
will track southeast from the Pacific Northwest across the northern
Rockies, Great Plains and Upper Midwest early next week.

In terms of sensible weather, occasional light orographic snow will
linger over the Snowy and Sierra Madre mountains through Thursday
evening before ending. Dry north-northwest flow aloft will then prevail,
with temperatures moderating to above seasonal normals (highs 30s-40s
and lows teens-20s) through Monday. Breezy west to northwest winds
will prevail Thursday through Sunday, with stronger winds possible
for the southeast Wyoming wind corridors Monday in advance of a
cold front and upper level disturbance. Tuesday will be breezy and
cooler following the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

IFR/LIFR conditions will persist across the northern Neb Panhandle
through early Wednesday morning in fog or light snow. Some pockets
of MVFR conditions will remain possible tonight, but in general we
expect VFR conditions to prevail outside of KRWL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

No concerns due to widespread snowfall and expected humidities.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ112-
     114.

NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for NEZ002-003-
     019>021-095-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN



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