574
FXUS64 KHUN 161743
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

High clouds will rapidly increase late this afternoon into this
evening as a lead shortwave impulse moves east through the
southern U.S. This impulse will arrive in MS and AL late tonight.
The LLJ will feed an MCS across LA into southern MS and AL.
Another area of more concentrated precipitation will occur across
the Ozarks into the OH valley along an elongated trough/shear
zone. So, our area looks to be "in between" heavier precipitation
areas. At this point, elevated instability appears it will be
limited, so will keep thunderstorm chances amongst the shower
chances low tonight. Overnight lows should be in the lower to
middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A high PoP, lighter QPF scenario seems to be more favored for our
portion of the TN valley Friday into Saturday. The wave over
TX will slowly eject east along a track further south along the
Gulf Coast this model run. This will focus more intense convection
Friday night into Saturday to our south, and significantly limit
much if any threat of organized strong to severe thunderstorms
for our area Friday or Saturday at this point. A rogue strong
storm or two can`t be ruled out with locally heavier rainfall. The
weaker extension of the larger trough position in the OH valley
will eventually shift southeast through our area late Saturday
into Sunday. Will stick fairly close to suggested blended
guidance, but the trend looks more and more like less impactful
thunderstorms and rainfall, at least this go around of the model
runs. After a cool down into the 70s Friday, temperatures should
warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday, and lower to
middle 80s Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A system that is expected to bring unsettled weather to close out
this week, by Sunday should be moving eastward over the Mid
Atlantic. Most of the showers activity should be east of the
region in the morning. But heating of residual moisture and
resultant instability could bring isolated to scattered (20-30%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms. This convection should it
occur should remain east of the Interstate 65 corridor, and in the
afternoon. Otherwise despite weak cold air advection, high
temperatures to start the week should warm into the mid 80s.
Shower activity should end Sun evening as high pressure building
in from the west becomes more of an influence on the sensible
weather. Low temperatures should cool into the lower 60s. The
start of the workweek/Monday should feature mostly sunny skies,
with highs rising into the upper 80s. Similar if not a tad warmer
on Tuesday with highs warming to around 90 in few places. Lows
Mon/Tue night should range in the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure should build east of the Tennessee Valley
during Mon/Tue, returning a southerly flow over the area. Another
system forming over the northern Great Plains will head towards
the Great Lakes. A cold front trailing the parent low over
southern Canada will move across the area on Wednesday. Thus have
returned shower and thunderstorm chances to the Valley, beginning
late Tue night and continuing on Wed. With clouds and rain
chances, high temperatures should be in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast through most of
tonight. High based -SHRA and isolated TSRA will arrive by 09-10Z.
The -SHRA will become more widespread by 12-14Z, when ceilings are
expected to drop below 010agl (IFR). The probability of TS is
below 30%, so have left out of both KHSV and KMSL TAFs at this
time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17