084
FXUS64 KHUN 150602
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
102 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 939 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers and storms will continue to end from west to east as the
upper trough axis nears the area. Currently, only impressive storm
of note resides over Cullman county where the environment remains
relatively untapped, but this storm has remained below severe
limits despite producing a lot of lightning. A brief break from
the showers/storms is expected through early tomorrow morning with
lingering low stratus persisting overnight. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 50s in the higher terrain to lower 60s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The base of the trough will push through the area on Wednesday,
bringing some additional cloud cover and low to medium (20-60%)
chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms from the
late morning through the afternoon -- with the highest coverage
favoring far northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
Mostly clear conditions Wednesday night along with a moist
boundary layer will create an environment favorable for patchy fog
as lows drop back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. A brief bout of
ridging will allow for a nice day on Thursday and a nice warm-up
as temperatures jumped into the low to mid 80s in the afternoon.
The pleasant weather will be short-lived cloud cover and rain
chances (20-30%) increase Thursday night ahead of the next low
pressure system. More widespread and higher rain chances (70-80%)
are forecast on Friday ahead of an approaching mid/upper trough
and its cold front. The best forcing/instability appear to be
displaced to our south and the main severe threat will be confined
along the Gulf Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Upper level ridging on Thursday quickly gives way to another upper
level shortwave trough slated to move over the Tennessee Valley on
Friday and into the weekend. However, there remains a fair bit of
model disagreement with regards to the evolution and timing of the
shortwave through the region. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure
system is shown to develop and progress over central Texas on
Thursday. By Friday morning, this feature looks to progress into the
ArkLaTex. At the same time, another low pressure system is shown to
move over the Midwest and into the upper Ohio Valley on Friday and
Saturday. The associated cold front from this system looks to sweep
over the Tennessee Valley on Friday, bringing high chances (70-85%)
of showers as well as the potential for storms.

As for any potential for strong to severe storms, confidence is low
at this time. Models show sufficient instability and shear for
thunderstorm development, but not much more at this point. Overall,
some gusty winds are possible along with frequent lightning and heavy
downpours with any storms that do develop. Low chances (20-40%) of
showers and storms then continue through the weekend, with low
chances (10-20%) Sunday night through Monday. These lingering
chances, especially Sunday and Monday, are likely due to the
aforementioned model disagreement in the upper levels. We will
continue to monitor trends with future model runs, as details of any
potential severe weather for late week as well as precipitation
chances from the weekend into early next week will become clearer
with better model agreement.

Quite the warm up is possible between Friday and Monday. Highs
Friday are forecast to be mild, in the mid to upper 70s, due to
higher chances and coverage of showers and storms. Highs are expected
to be a bit warmer on Saturday, with temperatures reaching the lower
to mid 80s. By Monday, highs in the mid to upper 80s are possible.
As for low temperatures, values generally remain in the lower to mid
60s through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A few areas of fading showers moving eastward were approaching
both KMSL and KHSV, thus have a VCSH for both, with a TEMPO for
brief MVFR CIGs at HSV. Cannot rule out patchy fog before sunrise,
with confidence too low for inclusion to the TAF this issuance.
Residual moisture from a slow moving low to our NE and daytime
heating will bring more chances of showers and storms in the late
morning and afternoon. Shower occurrence should be more to the
east, so kept KMSL dry, but kept a PROB30 for KHSV. Shower
activity should end areawide in the evening. Light southerly
winds overnight will gradually veer to a westerly direction at
5-10kt, then from the NW in the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...RSB