Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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029 FXUS64 KJAN 090603 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 103 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 831 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Rest of Tonight... The severe weather outlook for the next few hours has all but dissipated as strong capping in the northern portions of the CWA has resulted in limited attempts at convection and the diurnal cumulus field has largely dissipated with the setting sun. Better potential for showers and storms will be in the overnight/early morning hours mainly after 2am and will be largely confined to along and north of the hwy-82 corridor. This will be along the sagging remnant boundary from generally decaying storms approaching from Arkansas/Northern Louisiana. Should any briefly stronger, isolated storm form along this boundary, the environment could support some lower risk for damaging wind gusts and/or hail up to quarter size. Isolated light showers will be possible elsewhere but stronger storms are not expected. The forecast into tomorrow appears to still be on track with a mostly dry Thursday followed by a stormy overnight period. Timing details will continue to be dependent on upstream storms that could develop near the Texarkana area by tomorrow afternoon which could affect when the best window for severe weather locally occurs. Details regarding that evolution will be addressed in the full forecast package tonight and into Thursday prior to the severe threat. /KP/86/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Through Thursday: A capping inversion has continued to keep a lid on shower and thunderstorm development so far today. However, there is still a chance a few cells will break through late this afternoon into early this evening, especially along and north of the US 82 corridor. If any storms do develop, they could become severe given strong instability and deep layer shear. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to 1" are the main concerns. The threat should taper off by shortly after sunset, then a lull in activity is expected during the middle of the evening. Later on tonight, convection developing north and west of the area will advance south and eastward and may begin to reach northern portions of the forecast area after midnight. Overall, these storms are expected to be more vigorous and numerous across parts of the Midsouth then begin to weaken with southward progress overnight. However, particularly where convection is more organized, there is potential for storms to maintain damaging wind and perhaps marginally severe hail potential into southeast AR, portions of north LA, and northern portions of central MS during the early morning hours Thursday. The severe threat is expected to end by daybreak, though some showers and storms may linger into the morning hours tomorrow before subsidence in the wake of this round of storms provides a lull in activity. Isolated showers or storms will begin to redevelop in the heating of the afternoon Thursday, but greater convective potential will hold off until the nighttime hours. /DL/ Thursday night through Tuesday: An Enhanced Risk(3 out of 4) of severe storms is currently outlooked for our CWA between Highway 82 and Highway 84. Confidence has increased in the potential of convection organizing into and mcs to our west Thursday afternoon and moving east across the central portions of our CWA Thursday night. Damaging wind gusts of 75mph will be the main threat but hail up to the size of golf balls will also be possible. In addition tornadoes cannot be ruled out and locally heavy rainfall of one to two inches in a short amount of time will be possible. There still remains a spread in the guidance with timing but model consensus suggests that the mcs will be moving into our western most zones during the early evening and exiting out eastern most zones well before sunrise Friday. Although the severe threat will end before sunrise, a cold front will be moving through our CWA Friday morning and some anafrontal rainfall will prolong rain chances. By Friday evening the cold front is expected to be pushing off the Gulf coast with a surface high building into our CWA from the west. A subtle shortwave within the continued west to northwest flow aloft is expected to move across the region Friday night into Saturday morning but will have little moisture to work with and no additional precipitation is expected. Temperatures will be cooler than normal and in the 50s for morning lows Saturday. With northwest flow aloft continuing and the surface high shifting east across the region Saturday, cooler than normal and dry weather is expected to continue through Sunday morning but temperatures will warm back above normal by Sunday afternoon as weak shortwave ridging moves over our region and return flow increases. Moisture will continue to increase into Monday and rain chances will return in our west Sunday night ahead of the next low pressure system to affect our CWA Monday and Monday night. Models are starting to come into better agreement with this low pressure system that looks to involve a nearly stacked low over the central Plains. The potential for severe storms over our CWA looks to be increasing Monday afternoon and night. /22/ /22/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditons and southerly winds around 10 kts to start off the period. Several southern TAF sites are staring to see MVFR ceilings due to low stratus developing south of the I-20 corridor. MVFR ceilings will continue to develop across central MS through the overnight with possible IFR ceilings developing around 09Z Thursday. The chance for SHRA/TSRA could start to occur starting around 09-13Z, however confidence in impacts from thunder was too low to include except for GTR at this time. In addition, a brief period of low-level wind shear will occur across GTR starting around 06-07Z Thursday. Between 15Z-18Z, ceilings should start to lift into VFR range and rain chances should begin to diminish. Storm chances will start to increase around 00Z Friday. Some of these storms will likely become severe around this timeframe. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 66 80 57 / 50 70 10 0 Meridian 91 64 82 55 / 60 70 20 0 Vicksburg 90 66 80 58 / 40 70 0 0 Hattiesburg 93 69 85 58 / 40 70 30 0 Natchez 91 66 82 58 / 40 70 10 0 Greenville 89 64 78 58 / 30 40 0 0 Greenwood 89 63 78 55 / 30 50 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/22/CR/KP