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000
FXUS64 KJAN 261604
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1104 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rest of today...

A warm & quiet aftn is expected. GOES East water vapor
imagery/RAP analysis indicate ridge axis centered across the
region. Center of sprawling mid-level ridge is over the Yucatan
Peninsula, aiding in the amplified longwave troughing west of the
MS River Valley. Lead cold core is expected to become more open
wave, with ongoing <995mb sfc low/frontal zone across the Plains
expected to lift east-northeast into the evening. A lead shortwave
could spark some showers or isolated storms in the Delta, with
recent convective allowing models (CAMs) indicating some could
sneak in around or just after 00Z. No concerns at the moment for
severe storms, but will have to monitor anything that could sneak
in from the west if any organization persists into favorable
environment for gusty downdrafts. Expect seasonably warm highs in
the mid 80s. Deepening sfc low in the Plains & subtropical sfc
high in the Atlantic will lead to tight pressure gradient nearly
3-5mb, which supports warm & well mixed boundary layer. Sustained
winds up to 20mph & gusts up to 30mph are possible, especially
northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Today through tonight: Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected
to continue as we finish up the work week. An upper level ridge
axis will shift east of the area today, and we`ll see increasing
southerly flow in response. Expect an increase in wind gusts later
this morning and afternoon in what will be a warm and well-mixed
boundary layer. The only shower chances, over northwest portions
of the area, should correspond with a subtle shortwave trough in
the southwest flow aloft this evening. /EC/

Saturday through next week: Our area will be under the influence
of a summer-like regime in the extended period beneath general
ridging aloft. Intermittent disturbances will bring the chance for
rain and storms, however most energy should be deflected to the
north and west thanks to the ridge. Our northwestern areas could
be clipped by isolated showers Saturday with the departing low
pressure system to the northwest, however most areas should remain
dry. A pressure gradient of around 5 to 7mb over the area will
result in sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 30
to 35 mph, which has prompted a limited wind graphic in the HWO.
Winds should diminish Monday.

Attention then turns to a system Monday that could bring a small
threat for strong to severe storms and some heavy rain. A shortwave
pushes across the area Monday while 60s dewpoints are in place. Deep
shear around 40 to 50 kts should aid in organization of updrafts and
maintenance across the area. The primary threat should be
damaging wind gusts with a possible MCS, mostly along the HWY 82
corridor. In addition, PWAT in excess of 1.5 inches and deep warm
cloud layer will result in efficient rainfall rates, thus a flash
flood threat also appears possible. Expect more details as they
become available.

Warm and humid conditions continue under the influence of upper
ridging with intermittent showers and storms. A cold front
Thursday/Friday will bring a return of more steady rain and storm
chances, and slightly cooler temperatures. Severe storms are not
likely with this round given very weak deep shear and
instability./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Some
patchy fog and/or low stratus development will be possible at
namely KHBG and KPIB towards day break. This will result in a
brief lowering of flight categories to at least MVFR status
between 09-13Z. After sunrise and warming ensues, both will
quickly erode and a return to VFR flight categories is expected.
Winds will be breezy from the south on Friday and sustained
between 10-15 knots, with gusts around 25 knots possible at times,
and only a slight drop off is expected during the evening. /19/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  67  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      86  64  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     85  69  87  65 /  10  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   86  65  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       84  68  87  65 /  10  10   0   0
Greenville    83  69  85  65 /  10  20  10   0
Greenwood     84  68  85  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/SAS20/EC