Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 082344 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
544 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

The H5 pattern this morning was highlighted by a
longwave trough of low pressure across the lower 48. Low pressure
was located over western Quebec, as well as south of the eastern
Aleutian islands. A ridge extended from the western Aleutians into
the Bering sea. East of the Rockies, arctic air had plunged south
and had pushed through south Texas into the Gulf of Mexico, and had
pushed as far south as lake Okeechobee in Florida. At the surface:
High pressure was anchored across the Central Plains from the
western Dakotas into western Kansas. Winds were fairly light this
afternoon and were from the northwest at 10 MPH. Across the eastern
panhandle and western sandhills, winds were nearly calm. Skies were
clear with 3 PM CST readings mainly in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Another cold night expected across western and north central
Nebraska with lows right around zero in most places. A south wind
and increasing mid level clouds late tonight will cause temperatures
to steady out or rise slowly toward morning. Winds tonight will be
light enough that no wind chill headline will be needed.

Strong mid level warm air advection will be well underway Friday
morning, and a widespread mid level cloud deck will stick around for
most of the day. A few flurries are possible across northern
Nebraska where lift and moisture are a little better. Highs Friday
will be fairly similar to those today, with the added cloud cover
limiting much of a warm up despite the return to south winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Friday night through Sunday...Right out of the gate,
there are some differences with the NAM12 and GFS solutions this
morning with the weekend weather pattern. Aloft, broad west
northwest flow is expected so no major weather systems should impact
the forecast area during the period. However, a tandem of embedded
disturbances, with associated jet streaks will impact the central
and northern plains Saturday and then again on Sunday. For Friday
evening: The models do develop a southerly wind Friday night as high
pressure is forced south into the Ozarks. The GFS and NAM solutions
do lift a warm front northward into Western Kansas and eastern
Colorado Friday evening. As this "warmer" air lifts into the
panhandle, the models do develop some light pcpn INVOF the appg warm
front. The NAM being the colder of the two solutions, holds onto
snow as the predominate P-Type while the warmer GFS develops a mix
of precipitation in the panhandle and western CWA by early Saturday
morning. Looking at Bufkit soundings does indicate a thermal profile
conducive for mixed pcpn, however, there is a deep dry layer from
10000 FT AGL to the surface. Given the QPF`s of under 0.05 inches in
the model, thinking is that any pcpn which falls will evaporate
before reaching the sfc. Also, this is the GFS model only which
latches onto the warmer air off the surface.  The NAM 12 solution
still remains too cold for freezing pcpn as the warm front is well
south of the area in western Kansas. The NAM 12 solution is drier as
well with no threat for precipitation. An increased threat for
precipitation will be over the northern forecast area where the warm
front aloft lifts into far northern Nebraska and South Dakota. Lift
will increase along the elevated front late Friday night into
Saturday morning thanks to a strong jet streak aloft. Light snow is
expected over far northern Nebraska with an inch or two of light
accumulations, especially from Springview to O`Neill and points
north. On Sunday, a second jet streak will lift across the central
Rockies, approaching the central plains Sunday morning. Mid level
frontogenesis will increase across Nebraska during the day on
Sunday, leading to light snow development Sunday into Sunday
evening. Both the NAM and GFS solutions develop a narrow swath of
pcpn across the sandhills into north central Nebraska during the
period with one to two inches of snow possible. Winds should be
fairly light Sunday, so am not anticipating any headlines ATTM.

Sunday night through Thursday...Snow will come to an end across
the forecast area on Sunday night. This will be followed by a
brief warmup Monday with readings in the 30s. On Monday night an
upper level low will drop south from the Northwest Territories of
Canada into Manitoba. This will force an arctic front through the
forecast area Monday night. Frigid temperatures will continue into
the middle of next week with highs in the teens and 20s. As for
the threat for precipitation, it will be minimal with the frontal
passage as moisture is very limited. At this time, the next threat
for snow appears to be Thursday night into Friday. The setup is
similar to this Sunday`s with the development of mid level
frontogenesis and light snow. This will be in advance of a second,
stronger arctic front next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 544 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

A warm front lifts northeast through Western and North Central
Nebraska tonight. Some models such as the NAM...NMM and SREF
suggest the potential for MVFR cigs and flurries as the front
lifts toward the SD late tonight and during the day Friday.

The model consensus is for VFR conditions and confidence is
moderate.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC


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