Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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332
FXUS63 KLBF 211158
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
558 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

System is showing up nicely this morning per water vapor imagery.
Center is near the four corners, with a slight negative tilt seen in
the developing baroclinic leaf across northern New Mexico into
western Colorado. System will rapidly intensify this morning as
significant height falls spread across western Kansas. Short term
high resolution models and broader scale ECMWF and GFS all indicate
a significant winter storm (classic Colorado low) today into Monday
morning as the system moves east across the region.

This morning, large scale lift and isentropic upglide will keep
light to moderate snow falling across northwest Nebraska. Farther
south and east, drier air in the mid levels atop moistening lower
levels may lead to patchy freezing drizzle. This seems most likely
to occur across southwest Nebraska. By late morning, relative
humidity increases in the mid levels with the threat for freezing
drizzle ending. Chances for snow will then begin to increase through
the afternoon, with heavy snow developing mid to late afternoon. The
heavy snow band is expected to set up from southwest through
portions of central and into north central Nebraska. NAM cross
section this evening show a favorable set up for convective
enhancement, leading to localized snowfall rates of one to two
inches per hour. This combined with sustained winds near 30 mph and
gusts to 45 mph will likely lead to localized blizzard conditions,
and have upgraded to a blizzard warning for the area to be affected
by the intense snow band. After midnight the snow band should weaken
a bit, but still potential for heavier snow with convective
enhancement potential to linger until dawn Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Monday... The main deformation/fgen band of snow continues east
through the morning, ending along the Hwy 83 corridor by 18z and
north central Neb. by mid afternoon. Isentropic lift dissipates
early afternoon, and dry air entrains into the mid levels. Extended
blowing snow mention through the afternoon for areas along and east
of Hwy 83 as winds remain rather gusty. Used the stronger Cons
solutions due to very strong flow at H85 (over 50 kts at times), a
passing PV anomaly, and up to 1 mb/hr sfc pressure rises.

Tuesday through Thursday... Northwest flow aloft resumes as the next
ridge moves across the Rockies and a surface high pressure drifts
across the eastern half of the CONUS. Mainly fair conditions and
slowly moderating temperatures are expected, especially with decent
downslope flow at H85. A thermal ridge crosses the forecast area on
Thursday, adding a little boost to highs. However, lowered a degree
or two from the model blend during this stretch to account for
potential snowpack.

Friday and beyond... The ridge in the west gives way to a digging
trough and possible closed low somewhere over the northern Plains. A
strong cold front will push through at the surface, leading to
increased precip chances and highs back below normal. Indications
point toward a mixed ptype event with rain changing to snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 546 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A strong winter storm system will cross the area today into
tonight. The worst of the conditions will remain generally south
and east of KVTN. These areas could experience LIFR in heavy snow
and blowing snow. IFR possible elsewhere. North to northeast
winds gusting to 35kt are also expected south and east of KVTN.
Conditions will begin to slowly improve Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for NEZ009-
010-026>029-037-038-058-059-069>071.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for NEZ004-
005-022>024-035-036-056-057-094.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for NEZ006>008-025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively/Taylor
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Taylor



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