687
FXUS63 KLBF 070812
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
312 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Strong westerly winds expected today south of a strong storm
 system locate across the northern plains.

-Elevated fire weather concerns today in places where the
 spring green up has been delayed.

-Threat for showers increases Thursday as the northern plains
 system weakens and drops southward through the area.

-Temperatures warm up some this weekend (especially by Sunday)
 as brief ridging aloft takes hold across the plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Strong upper level low pressure is currently centered across
northwestern SD. A deep surface cyclone (983 mb) was also located
across northwestern SD. A pacific cold front arcs southeastward from
the surface low through eastern Nebraska.

High winds across northwest Nebraska are the immediate concern
associated with this system. A few gusts over 55 mph have been
observed early this morning, and the current High Wind Warning for
Sheridan county early this morning looks good. As the upper low
slowly fills today, the surface low will begin to slowly weaken as
they both shift northward into western North Dakota. The belt of
stronger westerly winds south of the system will also shift northward
out of northwest Nebraska this morning. It will still be quite windy
today across all of the area, but the high wind threat (gusts up to
60 mph) will end. With that said, deep boundary layer mixing will
likely support gusts of 45-50 mph from late this morning into the
afternoon hours across much of the Sandhills and portions of
northern/northwest Nebraska. Along with the wind comes a dry airmass
and increased fire weather concerns for areas that have a delayed
green up.

The surface low will have weakened considerably by Wednesday
morning. It will still be breezy Wednesday but much more manageable.
The upper low will also continue to weaken as it begins to drift
back southward toward Nebraska. The boundary layer won`t be quite as
dry Wednesday and expect at least a few showers to develop,
especially across northern Nebraska during the afternoon.

The upper low drifts back southward into Nebraska Thursday and then
shift east of the area Thursday night. A marked increase in
shower/Iso. thunder chances occurs as this happens. Even though
precipitation chances are fairly high, it appears that QPF amounts
will remain light.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A shortwave disturbance will dive southeastward from Canada into the
Great Lakes region Friday. This will drive a cold front through the
area, keeping highs in the 60s. Can`t rule out an isolated shower as
the front crosses the area, but the better forcing/dynamics remain
well east-northeast of our area so not expecting much.

It appears that an upper low will become cutoff across the southwest
U.S. late in the weekend. Subtle upper level ridging develops by
Sunday across the plains ahead of this feature. This bring a warming
trend and even above normal temperatures by Sunday.

As the low drifts eastward the first of next week shower/thunder
chances will increase. A cold front intrusion into the Gulf Sunday
will likely limit the amount of return moisture Monday into Tuesday
across the plains. It appears though enough will flow northward to
warrant precipitation chances. Flow aloft during this time looks
weak and not conducive for much severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

983mb sfc low pressure circulating north through wrn SD tonight will
stall across wrn ND Tuesday and begin to fill. Sporadic MVFR
ceilings in isolated SHRA are possible across nrn Nebraska
overnight. Isolated SHRA are possible across wrn and ncntl
Nebraska Tuesday with the best chance across nrn Nebraska during
the afternoon.

Aviators will continue to contend with LLWS WS020/27050KT
overnight. These winds will relax during the day Tuesday and the
risk of LLWS Tuesday evening is low.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NEZ004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC