Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 312023
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
323 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

First main concern for the rest of the afternoon and tonight will
the the isolated showers and thunderstorms that are currently
ongoing. At this time, showers are currently ongoing across the
southwestern CWA and expected to remain over this same location
through the rest of the afternoon and early evening, however, light
rainfall from these showers should not cause any significant
flooding issues. These showers are expected to remain very isolated
and not reach severe criteria.

As the shower potential moves further south into Kansas by late
evening, dry conditions return to central Nebraska as high pressure
builds southward. Plenty of low level moisture combined with calm
winds overnight will allow for fog development once again across the
southern half of the forecast area. Some locations could see
visibilities drop to below a mile. Uncertainty exists in the
placement of the denser fog. At this time though, have placed the
thickest fog mainly across the central forecast area (North Platte
to Mullen to Thedford area). Fog should lift by mid-morning (10am)
and dry weather will stick around through the remainder of the day
as high pressure remains over the area.

Temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 50s Wednesday
night before rising back into the low 80s on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Thursday night through Saturday...there has been little change in
the model solns today. An upper level low off the coast of British
Columbia will translate through the Pacific Northwest and provide
support for thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Generally isolated
storm activity is expected in the Panhandle Friday. The latest GFS
and NAM solns suggest storms firing in the mountains west of
Cheyenne and carrying east along the Cheyenne divide. The NAMDNG5
model suggests isolated storms as far north as Scottsbluff which
could carry into Sheridan county.

Winds aloft will be increasing with the approach of the upper low
across the Pacific Northwest but remain around 20kt at 500mb which
is weak. 300mb winds increase to 40 to 50 kt which would support a
few strong or severe storms. The NAM and GFS indicate precipitable
water between 1.25 and 1.50 inches which overall suggests multicell
behavior given the 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE in both models.

The upper level low...moisture and instability translate east
Saturday and a cold front may sag into Northern Neb. This suggests
the focus for storm development would be across Wrn and Ncntl Neb.
Winds aloft and MLCAPE increase slightly. Storm coverage would be
scattered and POPs increase to 30 percent in the afternoon.

A blend of guidance plus bias correction produces highs in the 80s
both days with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. The NAM...GFS and ECM
indicate a plume of high relative humidity extending up to 700mb
Friday and Saturday mornings which could be stratus but the SREF
shows a high probability of low clouds only Friday morning. The low
pressure across the Nrn Plains will deep enough for 20 to 30 mph
winds Friday which relax to 15 to 25 mph Saturday as a sfc trof
forms over the Panhandle.

Saturday night through Wednesday...heights continue to lower
Saturday night and remain low through Wednesday. The forecast
presents a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms Saturday night through
Sunday night as the upper low moves slowly east and opens up. The
best chance of rain throughout Wrn and Ncntl Neb is Saturday
evening. Thereafter the 50 percent rain chance move east into Ncntl
Neb.

30 to 40 percent POPs are in place Monday associated with the upper
low moving through MT and disturbances moving through the base of a
broad trof stretching south through Colorado. Rain chances are 20 to
30 percent Tuesday. The models have slowed the progress of an h850mb
cold front which is now progged to move through sometime Tuesday.
The slower progression of the cold front means highs Monday could
still reach the lower 80s across Srn Neb. In fact the guidance
indicates lower 80s across Srn Neb through Wednesday with 70s
elsewhere Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

Early morning fog has lifted across the region giving way to broken
to scattered ceilings. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms are possible
across KLBF, however, confidence is low in development and timing
and therefore have been left out of the forecast for now. General
thinking is that showers and thunderstorms should develop south of
KLBF. The other main concern for KLBF is the development of fog once
again tonight. The thickest fog should be just west of the terminal,
however, fog could drop down to at least 1 SM in the early morning
across KLBF. Fog should stay well south of KVTN.


&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Kulik



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