000
FXUS63 KLBF 141429
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
929 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

THE HOURLY RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE INDICATING MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THAN THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT IS. AS A RESULT...WE ARE
UPDATING THE DEWPOINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS FOR LOWER
VALUES...THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS INDICATED
BY THE HRRR AND RAP13 SHORT TERM MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND CURRENTLY IS
DRAPED FROM SOUTHERN MN THROUGH EASTERN NE AND ALONG THE WESTERN
KS/NE BORDER. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN GENERALLY 10-15 MPH
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY
IN THE FAR EAST /ONEILL AREA/ ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD BEFORE
DECREASING IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH SOME
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE GONE
A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FOR TODAY...CLOSER TO THE BIAS
CORRECTED DATA. DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE EAST WILL
MAKE FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TODAY...MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

CONCERNS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN FOCUS TURNS
TO A STORM SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND TODAY...THEN WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE BROAD TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HAVING TWO SEPARATE PIECES OF ENERGY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS. THE FIRST DROPS IN ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHILE THE SECOND IS FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVES DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT QUICKER BRINGING
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS IT IS NOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID MORNING. AS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ALSO INCREASED WINDS ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING TO 750MB WITH WINDS AT THAT
LEVEL UP AROUND 30KTS.

LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE IS GOOD LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT SEEN
OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THEN LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY AND
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
BELOW 800MB THAT PRESENTS AN ISSUE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW LEVELS DO EVENTUALLY SATURATE...BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY
IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF LIFT...WILL LIKELY BE SEEING
PRECIPITATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN
SPREADING EAST...JUST HOW MUCH ACCUMULATES IS IN QUESTION. AND...THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE OF WHAT REACHES THE GROUND IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT THE WET-BULB PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SNOW.
THEREFORE WENT WITH A RAIN/SNOW MENTION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES CHANGED EVERYTHING OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SUNDAY
AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE FINALLY
STARTING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CONUS...SO
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH THE MODEL THAT IS STRONGEST BEING THE OUTLIER. FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE KEPT THE FORECAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT
SOLUTION...WHICH FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND GEM.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY...WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS A BROAD
SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO. THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS...AND
WITH A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM
AT 10C TO 18C ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA /DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL/.
AGAIN...WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE NOT JUMPED ON THE EXTREMELY
WARM SOLUTIONS BUT IF THEY CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
MAY NEED TO DO FURTHER ADJUSTING UP ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO DEEP MIXING AND COULD BRING
DRIER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DAY.

THEN LOOKING TO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE
PLAINS...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THUS
LEADING TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES RANGE FROM THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA FROM THE ECMWF/GEM TO THE GFS
SHOWING THE LOW CROSSING KANSAS. THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
VERY DIFFERENT SENSIBLE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH BOTH WOULD BE COOLER
ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AGAIN...KEPT WITH THE MORE
CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND DIDN/T BUY INTO THE GFS AT THIS TIME. FOR
NOW...HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN TUESDAY NIGHT TO QUICKLY
PUSH ANY PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
RAIN/SNOW IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...YET DYNAMIC COOLING
COULD CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW.

BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN KEEPS COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

USING LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD INDICATED IS
BRINGING THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TO 15-20 PERCENT. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS STILL JUST ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD AND WIND GUSTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH 25 MPH...SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. THE SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE PARAMETERS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...SPRINGER