616
FXUS63 KLBF 262209
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
509 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

High pressure in control both at the surface and aloft will keep
the weather quiet the next 24 HRS. Another chilly night is
expected with dry air in place. Good drainage wind expected in
favored areas such as the Platte River valley and have gone with
the lower guidance for lows in most areas. Even on the cold side
of guidance expects temperatures to remain above the frost
threshold.

A surge of warmer air will move east off the Rockies Tuesday. This
warmer air will be aided by a downslope flow component, and have
highs reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Tuesday Night through Thursday: The main concern was temperatures
with no major sensible weather concerns present. Quiet conditions
will prevail. The forecast area will see an increase in southerly
winds Thursday while portions of Western Nebraska will see high
clouds begin to move in Thursday afternoon.

Guidance was in fair agreement with the large scale pattern and
its evolution. A 500 hPa closed low will be over the Upper Great
Lakes with a trough over the Midwest and Northeast US at the start
of the period. Elsewhere, weak ridging will be present over the
Central and Northern Rockies. The Upper Great Lakes closed low
will drift and settle south-southeast where it`s expected to be
over the southern portion of the Ohio Valley late Thursday.
Meanwhile, the ridge will move eastward and build across the
Plains Thursday. A weak and shallow cold front will move
southwestward Wednesday that will result in slightly cooler highs
compared to Tuesday by a couple degrees. Afterward, surface high
pressure will move in behind and become entrenched across the
Upper Mississippi Valley to Southern Plains Wednesday Night and
Thursday. Cooler temperatures aloft will result in slight cooler
highs Thursday compared to Wednesday. Nevertheless, highs will
remain 5-10 degrees above normal in the western-third of the
forecast area both days with near to slightly above normal highs
in the eastern portions of the forecast area. It is anticipated
that winds will pick up Thursday as a decent pressure gradient
gets established across the forecast area, strongest of which in
western NE. Apart from that, dry conditions will prevail. Model
plan views and soundings shows largely a dry column until later on
Thursday when some moisture gets transported northward.

Thursday Night through Monday: Guidance has come together more or
less compared to previous cycles with the handling of the closed
low in the Eastern CONUS, though some differences still exist and
are most apparent Saturday and beyond. The aforementioned closed
low will have settled in the Ohio Valley and then will lift slowly
northward into the Great Lakes region by early Sunday. Meantime,
the upper level ridge will break down slowly over the Plains
Friday-Saturday as a trough digs eastward across the West Coast.
Some differences in details exist, however, southwest flow is
expected to be established over the forecast area by late Saturday
and this will continue through Monday. In general, slightly above
seasonal normal highs are expected Friday through the weekend,
likewise above normal lows too. There are a few disturbances
within the southwest flow, however, there is still considerable
differences with strength and location between guidance. At this
time, the period where the likelihood is greatest for rain
showers/thunderstorms appears to be Sunday-Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Clear skies will continue across western Nebraska the next 24
hours. Winds at the KLBF and KVTN terminals will remain light at
or below 10 knots.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...Roberg