000
FXUS63 KLBF 010511
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY ARE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. ALSO SEEING A ARCTIC SFC HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND. TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES RIDING THE SW FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE LATEST DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE  MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...WITH NEBRASKA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE THE
SYSTEMS. IN GENERALLY THIS AFTERNOON ONLY SOME STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEB...AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR THE
NEB/KS BORDER. MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SW NEB HAVE KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S. MORE SUN FOR THE NORTH AND TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEXT DISTURBANCE EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.
STRATUS WILL AGAIN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST/WESTERN NEB. STRATUS IN THE
FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER MODELS SHOWING LIFT ONCE
AGAIN TO BE LITTLE/IF ANY IN THIS ZONE. THE BETTER LIFT REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SET UP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST. THUS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SPREADING NORTH...BEFORE RETREATING IN THE MORNING. LOWS WITH THE
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD IN THE TEENS WITH SOME FAVORED AREAS ACROSS NW
NEB TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. TOMORROW WE WILL SEE
A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. GUIDANCE IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY AND FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SLIGHT WARM UP...ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

NEAR TERM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM 12Z RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE PATTERN TO THE WEST SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 140KT+ 250MB JET OVER
HEAD. RETURN MOISTURE...WAA...STRONG JET OVER HEAD AND PIECES OF
ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER TEENS AND CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. A
DUSTING MONDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES RETAINED. SURFACE LOW MOVES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AS NEXT ARCTIC BLAST PUSHES COLDER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AFTER TUESDAY 06Z
AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS WAVE ROTATING OUT
OF HUDSON BAY PUSHES THE COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS MAY BE SLOW ON PICKING UP ON COLD AIR INTRUSION AND
MOVING TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
FALLING FROM 06Z ON TUESDAY INTO 12Z WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE POPS WILL
HAVE TO BE CUT BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY IN LATER FORECASTS. UPSLOPE
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY
IS LIKELY.LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...FRESH SNOW COVER IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW TO THE NORTH AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. HIGHS
SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH BUILDS IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWN SLOPE AND PACIFIC AIR
WILL START TO TREND TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY.
DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...
WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AS THEY COME
ACROSS...CEILINGS OF 2000-3000 FEET AGL AND VISIBILITY AT OR
ABOVE 5SM ARE LIKELY...THOUGH VERY LOCALIZED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EVENING RIVER GAGE READINGS INDICATED AN ICE JAM ON THE NORTH
PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY PUSHING THE STAGE ABOVE
THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE. A COUPLE OF SITES ON THE MAIN STEM OF
THE PLATTE SHOW ICE JAM SIGNALS AS WELL...THOUGH WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 40 MONDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST FROIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT COULD
AID IN BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. OTHER ICE JAMS ARE POSSIBLE
AS COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER