000
FXUS63 KLBF 120538 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR IMPERIAL IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO
OMAHA IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL BE DIRECTED AT
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN VEER
SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE REGARDING CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FIRST...THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
/AIDED BY A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARD THAT AREA/ SHOULD PROPAGATE EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF FRONT WILL AID STORM-RELATIVE
INFLOW...AND THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FURTHER
SUPPORT INFLOW AS WELL AS CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION. DUE TO THE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTO
A CLUSTER AND POSSIBLY AN MCS AS THEY MOVE EAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MID EVENING ONWARD. THE SECOND AND LESS LIKELY
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA NEAR THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE WOULD LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AND ISOLATED. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THE FIRST SCENARIO...AND THE FORECAST
WILL BE TAILORED IN THAT DIRECTION.

A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OR NORTHERN
KANSAS...WHERE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS OUR AREA...MOIST EAST/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAK AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. WILL LIMIT POPS TO 30
PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE MAIN POINTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL EXIST TO THE SOUTH IN KS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ND/MN/WI ON MONDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER LOW AND HELP PUSH UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN OVER
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A COOL TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
HIGH SLOW TO MOVE EAST...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS MAY LEAD TO
A FEW SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BOTH LOOK
A LITTLE WEAKER FOR SUNDAY...LIMITING THE SEVERE RISK A BIT COMPARED
TO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY ON SUNDAY. A FEW OTHER CHANCES
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...PRIMARILY IN THE SW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 08Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY ONE POINT IS LOW.
THEREFORE...AFTER 07Z...WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION TO VCTS BOTH VTN
AND LBF. RADAR INDICATIONS ARE THAT TWO ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEMS ARE
DEVELOPING AS THE RAPID UPDATE SHORT TERM FORECASTS INDICATED. THERE
IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CHANGE AND BRING STORMS TO LBF AND VTN BEFORE 09Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...CDC