Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192331
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Extensive low cloud cover has persisted across the area this
afternoon keeping temperatures in the 50s for the most part.
Northeast winds continue to advect in cooler temperatures helping
temps drop back down to the lower 50s to upper 40s (except along the
Rio Grande) tonight. An upper level trough moving across the western
U.S. will increase lift causing light rain and showers to develop
near sunrise Saturday mainly from the Permian Basin south into the
lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Areas of fog should also develop
along the I-20 corridor in the Permian Basin. The highest rain
chances and accumulations will be in the eastern Basin and decrease
to the west with low rain chances in the western 1/3 of the CWA.
Elevated instability will be great enough that scattered
thunderstorms are expected, enhancing rainfall totals in a few lucky
locations. No severe weather is expected. Continued cold air
advection and evaporative cooling from rainfall help lows drop into
the 50s tomorrow night.
Hennig
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Much quieter weather is anticipated for the start of next week as we
find ourselves on the back-side of this weekend`s trough and weak
ridging that builds through the middle part of the week. A subtle
shortwave sneaks under the building ridge for Monday, which may
fuel some diurnally-driven showers/storms in the Big Bend and
Davis Mountains in the afternoon.
On the heels of a trough swinging from the north Plains into the
Great Lakes, a weak front draws near our area late Tuesday/early
Wednesday. Additionally, another shortwave approaches from the
west Wednesday into Thursday, providing some additional synoptic
ascent. The GFS and Euro ensemble clusters are in some
disagreement in timing of this shortwave and as a result, the NBM
has smeared low PoPs in across the far northern and eastern
Permian Basin from late Wednesday through Friday.
With cool air and cloud cover lingering through Sunday behind this
weekend`s front, temperatures stay below normal before quickly
returning back above normal by Tuesday. High temperatures may take a
short dip on Wednesday in the northern Permian Basin with the weak
front drawing close before returning back to the 80s/90s for the
remainder of the week.
-Munyan
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
VFR conditions have arrived at all TAF sites though MAF is
borderline at BKN030-035. All locations will drop to MVFR and
ultimately IFR by around 12Z as the onset of rain brings CIGs BLO
OVC010. There will be embedded TS in the SHRA but the greatest
chances will be east of the TAF sites and not confident enough at
this time to include in any of the TAFs. Once IFR has set in, most
sites will remain there through the end of the TAF period.
Hennig
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 49 56 44 61 / 70 90 50 0
Carlsbad 52 60 47 63 / 30 40 20 0
Dryden 62 70 52 66 / 60 70 50 20
Fort Stockton 56 65 48 64 / 50 80 40 20
Guadalupe Pass 50 61 44 59 / 10 30 10 0
Hobbs 46 54 42 61 / 60 70 20 0
Marfa 49 74 41 66 / 30 50 30 10
Midland Intl Airport 51 56 45 61 / 60 80 40 0
Odessa 52 57 46 61 / 60 80 40 0
Wink 54 61 47 64 / 50 80 30 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...10