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000
FXUS64 KMOB 201839
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
139 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A frontal boundary extending from extreme southeast Mississippi
into south central Alabama is anticipated to move towards the
coast this evening then offshore overnight. Southerly to
southwesterly winds ahead of the front become northerly as the
front moves through. The highest coverage of showers and storms is
anticipated to be over interior areas through tonight then becomes
oriented mostly over the southern portion of the area Sunday
morning. MVFR/VFR conditions today will be followed by IFR
ceilings developing over the entire area overnight. /29

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A positively tilted upper trof over the northern Plains and
extreme northeast states evolves into a more meridionally oriented
upper trof over the eastern half of the CONUS. A frontal boundary
located from extreme southeast Mississippi into south central
Alabama remains close to this position through the afternoon then
drifts towards the coast this evening before continuing across
the marine area through Sunday morning. A series of shortwaves
move across the area through the period, and have gone with high
pops well inland tonight tapering to chance pops further to the
south. Likely to categorical pops follow for Sunday morning, then
pops taper off through the day with dry conditions developing over
much of southeast Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama.
MLCAPE values this afternoon range from 1000-2000 J/kg then
gradually taper off overnight. Model soundings indicate that the
best lapse rates are above 800 mb this afternoon (near 7C/km),
then lapse rates moderate tonight. Shear values look low, but
considering the instability values and favorable lapse rates
aloft, expect that some strong storms are possible into the early
evening hours. Lows tonight mostly range from the upper 40s/around
50 well inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Highs on Sunday
range from the lower 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. The
rip current risk through Sunday is expected to be low. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      57  66  46  72  47  75  53  81 /  40  70   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   63  71  52  73  53  73  57  78 /  30  80   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      65  74  54  73  56  72  59  78 /  20  80  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   54  65  44  71  44  77  50  81 /  60  60   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  49  61  43  70  43  77  50  81 /  70  60   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      49  60  43  69  43  75  49  79 /  70  60   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   59  71  47  74  44  77  49  83 /  20  70  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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