555
FXUS61 KOKX 110307
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1107 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure remains nearby through Friday. High
pressure then builds off the New England coast this weekend,
before a frontal system approaches from the west early next
week. The associated cold front moves through on Monday, and
high pressure returns into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Update made to remove the chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Weak shortwave with some lingering instability appears to be
touching off isolated showers just off to our north with any
additional activity likely remaining to our north. Light to
calm winds with low level moisture will lead to patchy fog
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing CAPE and decreasing CIN on Fri, but subsidence across the
region is expected to limit/inhibit convective initiation attm.
Still cannot rule out a few isold or widely sct aftn/eve tstms,
particularly across the interior where there is some terrain to work
with. The GFS does bring isold activity across the entire CWA, but
without support from the NAM, have left the NBM pops unaltered.

Some patchy fog again modeled for Fri ngt. A very subtle lljet may
try to produce a few shwrs or tstms overnight, again mainly nwrn
areas, but the NBM has not latched on to this yet so something to
look for. The NAM and GFS have a weak signal.

Hotter on Fri with all areas in the 80s, and the usual hot spots
across the SW approaching 90. The MAV and NBS has 90 at EWR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds off the coast of Nova Scotia and maintains an
offshore flow much of the weekend. This should help keep much of
southern CT and LI dry, though inland western areas will see showers
and thunderstorms possible each afternoon with a moist BL in SE flow
and diurnal heating helping to build instability.

Thereafter, a broad mid level trough centered over the Upper Great
Lakes translates east into early next week, helping advance a
frontal system toward and through the region, bringing increased
chances for a more widespread rainfall, especially on Monday ahead
of the cold front. Parameters appear at least marginally supportive
of thunderstorm development, but steering flow appears progressive
enough to mitigate significant flood concerns.

Conditions dry behind the fropa into midweek as weak high pressure
drifts in and NW flow aloft looks to lower the humidity.
Temperatures through the period look to largely stay in the 80s most
afternoons thru early week, with a gradual warm up then into mid
next week.

National blended guidance was followed for this update.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A surface trough remains in the vicinity of the terminals through
Friday.

Conditions lowering to MVFR, except lowering to IFR east of the
NYC terminals after midnight tonight. Improving back to VFR
Friday morning except at KGON which may remain MVFR into the
afternoon. An thunderstorm will be possible at KSWF Friday
afternoon.

Light S to SE winds this evening becoming variable at all
terminals this later tonight. A light SE flow develops Friday
morning, except a light NE flow initially at KLGA.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

IFR might not occur at KJFK. Chance of at least tempo IFR for
KLGA/KEWR/KTEB. Timing of lowering categories tonight and rising
categories Friday morning may be off by an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night - Sunday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening near and
northwest of the NYC terminals.

Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, becoming likely
during the afternoon northwest of the NYC terminals. MVFR conditions
in showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls thru Fri
ngt.

Light flow and low seas should then maintain sub Small Craft
Advisory conditions on all coastal waters through early next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Any tstms that develop thru Fri ngt could produce highly localized
minor flooding.

No significant hydro concerns in the long term.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk is moderate through Saturday along Atlantic
facing beaches with onshore flow up to 10 kt and a 3 to 4 ft
swell from the southeast at a 7 sec period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JC/MET
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...