Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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865 FXUS63 KPAH 170828 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 328 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 PM CDT for parts of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Additional rounds of heavy rain through the morning hours could bring flash flooding to parts of the Flood Watch area. - We will gradually dry out and warm up this weekend, with high temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s by Sunday. - Next week will be very warm and muggy, with daily thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast beginning Tuesday through the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Today and Tonight...The ongoing Flood Watch looks to be on track. An axis of heavy rain and thunderstorms across southeast MO is gradually shifting east into far southern IL and far western KY. This activity is developing along a convergence area that extends from WSW to ENE roughly parallel to the MO/AR and KY/TN border. MRMS QPE shows a band of 2-4" of rain has fallen over the last six hours across Butler, Stoddard, and Scott Counties in southeast MO. Short- term model guidance brings this activity into the rest of the Flood Watch through the rest of the morning hours, before tapering off this afternoon. With PWAT values still at 1.5 inches, model soundings showing a classic skinny CAPE heavy rain profile, and a boundary to initiate training convection, the heavy rain threat looks to continue for several more hours. Therefore, no changes are planned to the Flood Watch. However, if the heaviest rain exits the Flood Watch area by early this afternoon, it will likely be able to be canceled a bit earlier than its scheduled 24z expiration time. Clouds and rain will limit high temperatures to the lower to middle 70s across the area. Dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 60s will make it feel a bit sticky, however. Tonight, isolated to scattered showers and storms will gradually become confined to eastern parts of the forecast area over southeast IN and the KY Pennyrile, as surface low pressure passes just to our south and east across the TN River Valley. With a saturated boundary layer and very light winds, areas that see clearing skies tonight will likely see fog development, some of which could be dense. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Saturday through Monday...The weekend into early next week will see a gradual drying trend with PoPs and a warming trend in temperatures. With the surface low still positioned just east of the region, isolated to scattered shower and storm development will occur, primarily over southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile. Areas further to the west should be mainly dry with mid-level heights rising quickly. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s to upper 70s from west to east on Saturday. Sunday and Monday will be dry but very warm and a bit muggy. With surface high pressure over the Mid- and Deep South, and 850 mb temperatures near 20C, high temperatures will have no trouble reaching the middle to upper 80s. Overnight lows will dip into the lower to middle 60s. Tuesday through Thursday...A transition to more active pattern looks to begin Tuesday and persist through end of the forecast period. The forecast area will be near a SW-NE oriented baroclinic zone, with a parade of disturbances bringing renewed daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. The most significant system looks to impact the region Wednesday into Thursday, when surface low pressure is progged to deepen and move NE from the southern Plains into the Midwest. With a neutral to negatively- tilted H5 trough and strong moisture and heat advection off the Gulf of Mexico present, there could be the potential for some strong to severe storms with this system. However, given we are still several days out, it is difficult to put a lot of stock in any one solution at this time. The warmest temperatures of the season are forecast Tuesday, with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew point temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 60s, so it will certainly feel like early summer. Temperatures will cool slightly on Wednesday and Thursday as PoPs and cloud cover increase. Overnight lows will be on the stuffy side, though, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A band of showers with a few rumbles of thunder has now developed over SEMO and will impact terminals KCGI/KPAH through the morning. Heavy downpours and MVFR vsby reductions will be possible. Lighter scattered showers are anticipated across the rest of the terminals before gradually diminishing from west to east in the afternoon. The other concern will be for MVFR/IFR cigs that are progged to spread across the region from the southwest by 11-15z. The low cigs will gradually scatter out by the evening across western terminals, but likely remain in place at KEVV/KOWB due to low level saturation. Light & variable winds become S-SE between 5-10 kts after daybreak. At night, calm winds are expected. If skies are able to clear out in time, conditions may be favorable for fog development towards the end of the TAF period across portions of the region. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through this evening for ILZ088>090-092>094. MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ108>112-114. IN...None. KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ001>009. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DW