778
FXUS65 KPIH 262320
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
520 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy afternoons today through Saturday.

- Afternoon highs 4 to 9 degrees above normal through the
  weekend, and 10 to 15 degrees above normal to start the week.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible by mid week next week with
  monsoonal moisture increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Satellite imagery shows shortwave pushing through East Idaho this
afternoon. Radar shows scattered coverage of weak echoes mainly
across the northwest half of the forecast area, but steep dew point
depressions and very dry soundings indicate mostly virga, generally
confirmed by area web cams. Would not be surprised for any
particular location across the central mountains or along the Divide
to catch a sprinkle or two along with a clap of thunder, but overall
dry (but locally gusty) conditions are expected. Similar conditions
are anticipated Friday, but any potential convective development
looks confined to areas along the Divide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Flow turns generally zonal Saturday, followed by development of a
ridge of high pressure building through the intermountain west
Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures begin their climb into the
lower to mid 90s by Monday/Tuesday. Tuesday still looks to be the
warmest day, with latest NBM probabilities supporting >75%
probability of reaching or exceeding 95 degrees for a wide swath of
the Snake Plain, but especially across the Lower Snake, Eastern
Magic Valley, Raft River, and Cache Valley locations. Upper ridge
shifts slightly to the east Tuesday, allowing moisture to push into
the region ahead of slowly advancing Pacific trough. Ensembles
currently paint isolated thunderstorms across portions of East Idaho
Tuesday, increasing slightly for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures are expected to cool SLIGHTLY Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions forecast throughout the period with less than 10
percent chance of isolated storms or showers areawide. Winds will
trend light and variable this evening before increasing again Friday
afternoon with gusts ranging 20 to 30 kts. Mid and high clouds will
generally remain FEW to SCT, with most cloud cover expected further
north at KSUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Warm and predominantly dry conditions will continue across
eastern Idaho through the weekend under the increasing influence
of high pressure and prevailing southwest flow. As another
shortwave trough passes overhead today, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in the Central Mountains, Upper
Snake River Plain, and Eastern Highlands as conditions remain
mostly dry overall. Winds will be breezy Thursday through
Saturday, peaking each afternoon, which coupled with low
relative humidities in the teens and 20s, support elevated fire
weather conditions. Near critical fire weather conditions will
be possible across portions of Idaho FWZ 425/427 where fuels are
approaching critical. Wind gusts will peak Thursday through
Saturday each afternoon around 25-45 mph, strongest in 410/476.

The warmest airmass so far this year will build in starting
Monday with highs reaching the 80s to upper 90s across lower
elevations as afternoon relative humidities drop to the single
digits and teens. Increasing confidence for next week starting
Tuesday and Wednesday supports a broad Pacific trough moving
onshore, tapping into monsoonal moisture associated with a Four
Corners High. This is reflected well in the latest 6-10 and 8-14
Day Outlooks which favor above normal precipitation across the
SW CONUS up into Idaho. While exact details will come into focus
over the coming days, this pattern would support daily showers
and thunderstorms and an increase in relative humidities, as
warm, above normal temperatures continue. That temperature trend
is reflected well in these outlooks as well which favor
continued above normal temperatures into early July.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay