465
FXUS63 KTOP 160512
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1212 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Following rain today, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
 this evening into tonight. Quarter sized hail and damaging
 wind gusts remain possible with stronger storms.

-A brief stretch of dry weather is expected for most of the
 area Thursday-Saturday.

-An active pattern could then bring additional rounds of storms
 late in the weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

This afternoon, a subtle shortwave trough, possibly induced by the
weak MCV from this morning, in the mid-level flow appears to be
passing over far northeast KS, and advancing to the northeast.
Scattered storms had continued to develop midday, where some
weak isentropic lift was also evident. Thus, have maintained
POPs through the afternoon with the highest chances near and
north of I-70. Attention then turns to the possibility of
additional thunderstorm development this evening. Surface obs at
19Z show low pressure centered over eastern SD with a cold
front stretching southward through eastern NE, central KS and
into the TX panhandle. Moisture has been slowly increasing in
far eastern KS through the day, with dew points now in the low
to mid 60s. Mesoanalysis shows between 500 and 1000 J/kg over
much of the area at 19Z. Instability is likely to increase a bit
more to around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and bulk shear values are
expected to increase to around 40-45 kts as lift also increases
with the approach of an upper trough and the surface front this
evening. CAMs agree on the development of thunderstorms in
north-central KS this evening, with storms moving eastward
through the area into the nighttime hours. Given the
environment, a few storms are still expected to be capable to
quarter sized hail and damaging wind gusts.

The surface front will slowly move eastward tonight and should be
located across east-central KS tomorrow morning. As rain ends from
west to east, low clouds and fog are likely to develop for the early
morning hours of Thursday. Have slight chance POPs continuing ahead
of the boundary tomorrow, with the rest of the area staying dry. A
mid level low currently over Baja California will be the next one to
watch for the possibility of more rain on Friday, at least for east-
central KS. Most models move that through the south-central CONUS as
an open wave, while the GFS remains the outlier showing a more
compact, closed low solution. Will keep POPs in the 25-35 percent
range for now for area near and south of the Kansas Turnpike.

A progressive pattern looks to bring another front into the forecast
area on Saturday. However, fropa is expected to be dry with the main
system and forcing well north of the area. A better setup for the
return of possible severe weather could then occur later in the
weekend and early next week when a shortwave trough moves overhead
within southwest flow aloft. Some models show low pressure deepening
over KS with a warm front setting up near or within the forecast
area by late Sunday. A more amplified trough could then impact
the region on Tuesday with another round of stormy weather possible.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A weak boundary is expected to push south of the terminals with
MVFR conditions holding in until mid to late morning. Eventually
some dry air advection from the north should scatter out the low
level moisture with VFR conditions prevailing after that.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Wolters