600
FXUS63 KTOP 140546
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1246 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers taper off this evening and overnight.

- Next rain chances arrive Wednesday into Thursday, with moderate
confidence in drier conditions for the weekend.

- Temperatures stay near average for the next few days, warm up for
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A well defined area of low pressure is roughly over Topeka this
afternoon, with scattered showers spinning around it. Thus far
haven`t seen any lightning strikes out of these showers, but there
are a few hundred J/kg of CAPE present across the area. So can`t
rule out a brief rumble of thunder through the evening. Heaviest
rainfall continue to be in the deformation band to the north and
west of the surface low, with much lighter rain near and southeast
of the low center. Showers taper off during the late evening and
early overnight hours as the low pulls off to the east. As a narrow
ridge axis moves in behind the low, this will keep us sunny and
warmer for Tuesday. Highs climb into the mid/upper 70s.

After this brief break, the next upper trough approaches Wednesday
into Thursday. This trough looks rather broad with several vorticity
maxima moving through it, supporting several rounds of light
showers. A few thunderstorms also appear possible, but again the
best instability and shear for any stronger storms appears to stay
to our south. Temperatures through Thursday will be dependent on
cloud and precipitation coverage, though overall should stay in the
low/mid 70s for highs.

Heading into next weekend, a split flow pattern develops across the
CONUS. Predictability of in this pattern is quite low, given several
shortwaves moving through both the northern and southern streams.
Overall though, it does appear slightly drier and warmer of a
pattern compared to the first half of the week. NBM probabilities of
high temperatures in the 80s are around 80 percent by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Satellite still shows low-level clouds over much of eastern KS,
though some recent obs have showed cigs lifting to VFR. Have
decided to resolve this with a tempo of MVFR cigs for the first
few hours at TOP/FOE, as there could be some bouncing around
before clouds scatter out completely. Have also seen BR/HZ
reported at TAF sites as well as a few surrounding sites, so
have utilized the tempo group for reduced vis associated with
this in addition to the cigs. Otherwise, expect northerly winds
for most of the period, increasing slightly to around 10 kt at
TOP/FOE this afternoon. Light winds turn to the east/southeast
later in the evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Picha