Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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537
FXUS65 KABQ 291122 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

The surface dryline is surging into eastern New Mexico early this
morning with low clouds spreading over the plains. Some MVFR
ceilings will continue through the late morning before these
clouds burn off. The dryline will start to nudge back east this
afternoon, but some showers and thunderstorms will still manage to
develop in the far eastern tier of the state with some strong to
severe cells possible with very gusty winds and large hail
possible. Associated downpours would also reduce visibility and
ceilings. Elsewhere, dry and breezy conditions are expected to
resume with VFR conditions prevailing.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
The warming trend continues into Monday...with daytime
temperatures reaching to near or slightly above normal for late
May at most locales. A few thunderstorms are possible along a
dryline later today near the Texas border and may become severe.
Look for a similar day Monday...with any severe thunderstorms
across the far eastern plains near the Texas border. Otherwise...
mostly dry conditions with afternoon breezes will prevail though
Monday. A backdoor cold front will push southwest across the area
late Tuesday into Wednesday and bring much needed moisture for
showers and storms. Temperatures will take a dip below normal
behind the front and stay there through Thursday. A renewed
warming trend is forecast for the end of the work week and into
the weekend with temperatures rising back to near normal and
diminishing chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak and slow moving upper low...currently offshore of southern
California...will take its time moving east toward southern New
Mexico over the next several days. A dry slot rotating out ahead
of the upper low will keep western and central New Mexico on the
dry side...with any convection through Monday likely producing
gusty winds and very little to no measurable precipitation.
However...a different story across eastern New Mexico where a
dryline will sharpen-up later today. Gulf moisture advection is
currently underway into the east central and southeast plains
where surface dewpoint temperatures are currently rising into the
50s and low 60s. Lower forecaster confidence on the placement of
the dryline later today given model run-to-run inconsistency...but
convective initiation is likely somewhere between the Pecos River
Valley and the Texas border later today. The SPC day 1 convective
outlook has eastern portions of some of our eastern-most counties
in a rather large slight risk area. Any storms that develop over
the eastern plains will likely strengthen as they move east into
the Texas Panhandle late today. Similar setup for Monday thanks to
a retreating dryline overnight. Otherwise...the warming trend
continues through Monday with temperatures rising to near or
slightly above normal at most locales.

The backdoor cold front is still on track to move southwest across
our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong to potentially severe
storms (pulse-type) are possible late Tuesday between the Sangres
and the TX/OK borders along and behind the front...and possibly
out ahead of the front across the east central plains as Gulf
moisture is pulled westward in the lower boundary layer depending
on the exact track of the of the upper low. The front will mover
west through the gaps in the central mountain chain late Tuesday
night or Wednesday morning with windy conditions forecast in the
Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Moisture advection behind
the front will be sufficient to fuel wetting showers and storms
Wednesday west to near the Continental Divide. Temperatures will
take a dip below normal behind the front and stay there through
Thursday.

An impressive upper ridge is forecast by both the 00z GFS and
ECMWF to pump-up over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest late
week then gradually shift east over the central/southern Rockies
and New Mexico through the weekend. Look for a warming trend from
late week through the weekend with temperatures headed to near or
slightly above normal for early June. Sufficient moisture will
remain for daily rounds of storms Fri-Sun...but the wetting
footprint should gradually decrease given no added moisture input.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A fairly weak low pressure system aloft is currently located just
off of the southern CA coast, and this feature is expected to move
very slowly to the east over the next four days.  A couple of
disturbances aloft are also currently moving northeast from the Baja
into eastern NM, and at the surface the dryline is very conspicuous,
separating moist air to the east and warm, dry air to the west.
Humidity recovery is rapidly rising in the far eastern plains, and
this trend will continue more-or-less east of the Pecos valley. Much
uncertainty rests with the evolution of the dryline for the daytime
today. Synoptic forecast models have changed their tune from 24
hours ago, and now indicate a rapid mixing out of the dryline east
toward the TX border. However, the high resolution short term models
indicate a much different story with the dryline  holding its ground
within a reasonably close proximity of the Pecos. This will have big
implications on not only the afternoon humidity, but also on the
location of where storms will be triggered. For now, have built the
forecast with the deepest moisture getting shoved into the farthest
eastern tier of NM with the potential for any storms that do develop
to turn strong to severe.  To the west of the dryline, the warming
and drying trend will continue where it left off yesterday with
seasonable temperatures and light to moderate afternoon breezes.

Tonight the dryline will likely slosh back to the west, carrying
high humidity recoveries back into the plains of NM. It does appear
that the dryline will mix and push eastward Monday afternoon, but
forecast models indicate that it may not fully leave the state. This
could keep some higher humidity entrenched over the far eastern tier
of NM with some storm potential. By this time the disturbance aloft
will make a leisurely track into western AZ.  A mid level dry slot
will round the base of this feature and nose its way into western
and central NM, and this will lead to another day of single digit
humidity for many of these zones Monday afternoon. Otherwise breezes
would pick up in the afternoon with some speeds briefly breaching
critical thresholds in the northeastern highlands in isolated
locales, and west of the dryline Haines indices will be high.

By Tuesday the upper low will ease toward southeastern AZ, and a
surface cold front will back into northeast NM. The front will bring
additional low layer moisture into the northeast corner of NM where
showers and thunderstorms are expected, but much of the central to
western zones will continue to suffer from very low RH due to the
presence of the dry slot aloft, warm temperatures, high mixing
heights and rather unstable conditions.

By Tuesday night the aforementioned back door cold front will race
south and west through NM, spreading gusty winds as it passes
through, especially near canyons/gaps within the central mountain
chain.  This front will be the catalyst that induces a  shift in the
weather to a cooler, moist pattern.  Moisture will feed shower and
thunderstorm development Wednesday and through the remainder of the
work week.  Some dry storms would still likely be found toward the
Continental Divide during the latter half of the week, but areas to
the east would see a wetter variety of showers/storms.  Temperatures
would rebound back close to normal next weekend as the moisture
slowly dwindles.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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