Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 240842
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
242 AM MDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures are expected today in the wake of overnight
storms and abundant cloud cover. However, another round of storms is
expected this afternoon and evening, initially over the high terrain
than focusing over eastern New Mexico this evening. After today,
storm coverage will trend downward through the weekend while
temperatures will trend upward. A back door cold front early Monday
may increase thunderstorm activity for Monday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Line of storms across the eastern plains early this morning will
continue to slide southward into better moisture through sunrise.
This area of storms looks to also be aided by the mid/upper level
vort max/shortwave trough wobbling around western NM. This
disturbance will slowly slide eastward across northern NM today,
exiting NE NM late tonight. With abundant moisture persistent across
the plains, there should be another round of storms this afternoon,
favoring the high terrain initially. By tonight, rainfall should
favor areas along and east of the central mountain chain, with a
secondary area across the southwest mountains. Now, the one caveat
is the amount of mid/high cloud cover that is currently across the
state due to the storms across NM and AZ. Should this cloud cover
persist, it may limit instability somewhat this aftn. Lowered
temperatures several degrees for this afternoon due to anticipation
of widespread cloud cover.

On Friday, the upper level high will begin to build back northward
and storm coverage should decrease.  Eastern NM, in particular,
could still see isolated to scattered storms Friday aftn/eve due to
moist return flow and storm potentially propagating southeastward
toward the better moisture/instability.

Through the weekend, the upper high will build over the Great Basin.
Due to persistent return flow, cloud see isolated to scattered
storms each day form over the mountains and move onto surrounding
lowlands. Storms may move more toward the southwest over the weekend
though. Overall, however, storm coverage will continue to trend
downward, and temperatures will trend upward.

Looks like a back door front will arrive early Monday which may try
to replenish moisture somewhat across NM. GFS is far more bullish
with QPF beyond Monday than the ECMWF, but there should be some
moisture recycling day-to-day in the form of showers and
thunderstorms.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another active night of showers and thunderstorms, with the more
significant storms in the northeast. This activity will wane through
the morning hours before picking up again this afternoon. It will be
another day of widespread wetting rain favoring the western and
central mountains as a weak upper level disturbance moves northeast
through the state. The activity will continue well into tonight,
especially across the east.

High pressure aloft will develop near the four corners area Friday
and strengthen this weekend into next week as it shifts over the
Great Basin. But the upper high will not be strong enough to supress
all of the convection, however storm coverage will be less Friday
through the weekend. The most likely areas continue to be the
western and central high terrain. Highs will warm a few degrees
during this time and minimum humidities will lower.

A back door cold front will bring in a fresh supply of low level
moisture Sunday night into Monday across at least the eastern half
of the CWA. The upper high will get shoved south by an upper level
trough later next week. Tropical Storm Harvey should have no impact
on our weather.

Humidity values will remain on the high side today but lower some
Friday through the weekend. RH should increase slightly again early
next week.

Areas of poor vent rates will continue to plague the valleys and
eastern plains into next week.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Widespread aviation impacts expected the next 24 hrs as SHRA/TSRA
continue through the overnight hours and all day Thursday. MVFR low
cigs will redevelop over eastern NM overnight. Any direct hits from
storms will be capable of gusty outflow to 35kt, MVFR cigs in heavier
rain, with frequent lightning. Greatest confidence on low cigs will
stretch from KTCC to KROW west to the central mt chain. Some patchy
FG is even possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  84  54  88  58 /  20  10   0   5
Dulce...........................  77  45  81  48 /  50  20  10  10
Cuba............................  74  51  80  53 /  50  30  10  20
Gallup..........................  80  49  85  50 /  30  20   5   5
El Morro........................  74  46  80  49 /  40  20  10  10
Grants..........................  78  49  83  52 /  40  20  10  10
Quemado.........................  76  52  80  54 /  40  20  10  10
Glenwood........................  83  60  87  62 /  40  20  30  30
Chama...........................  72  45  76  48 /  50  30  20  20
Los Alamos......................  73  54  78  57 /  40  40  10  20
Pecos...........................  72  52  77  54 /  50  40  30  40
Cerro/Questa....................  68  49  75  49 /  50  30  20  20
Red River.......................  62  42  67  44 /  60  40  30  20
Angel Fire......................  67  40  72  41 /  60  50  30  30
Taos............................  72  46  80  48 /  40  30  20  20
Mora............................  69  48  75  49 /  60  50  30  30
Espanola........................  80  56  85  59 /  30  30  10  20
Santa Fe........................  73  54  80  57 /  40  40  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  76  53  82  56 /  30  30  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  59  84  62 /  40  30  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  61  86  64 /  30  20  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  60  87  63 /  30  20  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  59  86  62 /  30  20  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  84  59  88  61 /  30  20  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  81  59  86  62 /  30  20  10  20
Socorro.........................  84  64  87  66 /  40  30  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  53  81  56 /  50  40  20  30
Tijeras.........................  76  55  83  58 /  50  40  20  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  51  81  53 /  40  40  20  20
Clines Corners..................  72  53  77  55 /  40  60  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  77  56  80  58 /  50  40  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  77  59  81  59 /  50  40  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  70  54  73  55 /  70  40  50  40
Capulin.........................  73  50  78  53 /  60  50  30  30
Raton...........................  76  51  80  53 /  50  40  20  30
Springer........................  77  53  81  54 /  40  40  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  71  50  76  52 /  50  60  30  40
Clayton.........................  77  58  80  58 /  40  50  20  30
Roy.............................  74  56  78  57 /  50  60  30  40
Conchas.........................  80  62  84  63 /  40  60  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  79  61  84  61 /  40  60  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  83  62  84  63 /  40  60  20  30
Clovis..........................  79  63  81  62 /  40  50  30  30
Portales........................  79  63  81  63 /  40  50  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  80  63  83  63 /  30  50  20  30
Roswell.........................  84  66  85  66 /  30  40  30  20
Picacho.........................  78  61  81  61 /  50  40  30  20
Elk.............................  74  57  76  58 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

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