Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 291136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period with dry westerly
flow. Afternoon gusts will reach to between 25-30kts at a number of
area terminals. A backdoor cold front will result in a wind shift at
KLVS and KTCC overnight.



.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017...
Dry, hot and breezy conditions will continue today before a
relatively strong backdoor front brings relief to the heat Friday.
This front will bring an increase in low level Gulf moisture,
resulting in chances for thunderstorms along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristos and northeast highlands Friday afternoon and
evening. Gusty east canyon winds will develop in the Rio Grande
Valley Friday night. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest from the
continental divide to the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon
and across the eastern plains Saturday night. Dry air will begin to
push into western areas Sunday, spreading eastward Monday.
Thunderstorms will be favored across the eastern plains both days.
Temperatures will rebound to near to slightly above average Sunday,
continuing into early next week.


Second day in a row of near record heat during the hottest week of
the year on average has prompted the issuance of a heat advisory for
Quay and Chaves counties for this afternoon. Relief to the heat
across eastern and central NM remains on track for Thursday night and
Friday. Models have trended a tad slower with the front, now moving
it into northeast NM after midnight tonight, backing it up against
the east slopes of the central mountain chain around noon Friday.
ECMWF the most gung-ho model with regard to convection for the ern
plains Friday afternoon and evening. Trended the forecast toward the
ECMWF solution given the opposing low and mid level wly flow which
should act to create a fairly robust convergence zone along/near the
central mountain chain. Backdoor front plows wwd into the RGV Friday
evening and up to the divide by sunrise Saturday. Models agree that
Saturday looks like the most active day for convection from the
divide ewd to the central mountain chain. Convection shifts to ern NM
Saturday night. Bone dry west winds rear their ugly head once again
across wrn NM Sunday, relegating convection to the southwest
mountains and to areas east of the central mountain chain.

Dry low level flow becomes more nwly Monday as the Four Corners high
builds over the southern Great Basin. Monday looking like the driest
day next week with storms confined to areas near the TX border.
GFS and ECWMF bring a backdoor boundary into eastern NM on the 4th,
possibly resulting in an uptick in storms from the east slopes of the
central mountains east. Models are in general agreement for mid and
late week next week, progging the Four Corners high over NM. Low
level southerly or sely flow keeps at least slight chances for
thunderstorms across the east both days.

ECWMF continues to indicate an ewd shift in the Four Corners high
and the development of at least a weak monsoon plume for late next
week. GFS on the other hand moves the upper high nwwd to ern NV. Both
solutions end up with similar sensible weather with at least isolated
convection over NM.





Mostly poor humidity recovery to start the day, with fair to good
recoveries across the Eastern Plains closer to the TX border. A dry
air intrusion continues across the forecast area today, with many
hours of single digit humidity forecast along with hot and unstable
conditions. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop by
afternoon, with a few hours of critical fire weather conditions
forecast across portions of the Central/Northeast Highlands.
However, sufficient coverage and number of hours is lacking for a
red flag warning and wind speeds are forecast to remain below
criteria across a majority of the area.

A hot, dry and unstable regime will continue across western and
central New Mexico Friday with weaker westerlies, while a backdoor
cold front slides down the Eastern Plains and hits the Central
Mountain Chain. Much cooler temperatures and increased humidity can
be expected behind the front, which will advance west through the
Central Mountain Chain Friday night to near the Arizona border by
Saturday morning. The frontal layer will mix out and be replaced by
a hot, dry and unstable airmass across far western New Mexico
Saturday afternoon, with increasing chances for storms and wetting
precipitation across central New Mexico where sufficient moisture
will be in place. Chances for storms and wetting rain will spread
east across the Eastern Highlands/Plains Saturday evening. An
approaching through will spread dry air across the area Sunday and
focus chances for wetting precipitation along/east of the Central
Mountain Chain.

A drying/warming trend will be in play from Monday through the
middle of next week as an upper level high strengthens over the Four
Corners. Depending on the exact position and strength of the upper
high, sufficient moisture may creep west to the Central Mountain
Chain for daily rounds of storms across the eastern half.



Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT this evening for
the following zones... NMZ534-538.



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