Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 171720 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1120 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Thin high clouds
are already moving across portions of western and central NM, and
these will continue to increase and thicken late tonight ahead of an
upper level trough.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures continue today and Wednesday. Moisture advection
into southern New Mexico and a weak disturbance will produce a few
isolated to scattered storms over the south central mountains
Thursday. Temperatures fall this weekend with the passage of another
Pacific trough, with the chance for some showers and high elevation
snow across the northern mountains Saturday into Saturday night.
Winds will be breezy Friday and Saturday afternoons due the
approaching trough.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another clear night with a few high clouds entering over NW New
Mexico this morning. A very dry air mass has remained overhead as
shown by the 00Z sounding PWAT of 0.16". Some moisture advection will
work its way into southern New Mexico today, with temperatures
warming 5-10F above normal today. Some cloudiness will limit highs a
bit Wednesday, but they will remain several degrees above normal.

A disturbance Thursday, coupled with continued moisture advection
into southern NM will increase chances for isold-sct tstorm activity
over the south-central mtns. Models are showing a southerly push into
the Rio Grande Valley Thu afternoon, with decent instability of CAPE
1000-1200 J/kg and indications of a few storms producing strong
downburst winds near the south-central mtns. Thursday evening
convection will push into the SE plains.

Friday will see increased westerly winds from zonal flow ahead of
the next trough pushing into the Pacific NW. Both the GFS and ECMWF
have trended towards a more progressive trough passage for Saturday,
with neither developing a lee-side closed low, instead now
progressing the trough through the Great Plains. The ECMWF is also
warmer with 0C 700mb temps staying N of NM for the most part Sunday
morning. Regardless, temperatures will fall -4F to -8F below normal
across the west Saturday and across the east Sunday. This fast moving
system will also bring the chance for showers across the northern
mtns and NE plains, with the likelihood of some light snowfall across
the peaks of the Sangre`s.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air continues streaming over NM as an upper level high
drifts south into northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become more zonal
and allow ventilation to improve into the fair/good categories. Max
temps today will trend slightly warmer with readings above normal
all areas. Min RH values will be similar to yesterday and generally
less than 20%, with light winds. The driest air is still socked in
over northern NM where values may fall below 10% for an hour or two.
Recoveries tonight will be fair across the north and good across the
south and east. Strong midslope inversions will develop once again.

Southerly flow will increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching weak
upper level wave. Min RH values will trend upward and temps will be
similar to today. Ventilation will improve even further into the
good and excellent categories. Noticeably thicker high cloud cover
will increase from west to east. Low level moisture will continue
increasing Wednesday night with much better recoveries all areas.

An upper level wave will cross the state quickly Thursday and bring
gusty virga showers and patchy wetting precip to points mainly along
the central mountain chain. Temperatures will cool slightly but
still average above normal. Min RH will trend higher into the 20 to
30% range. Showers will linger over central and eastern NM into
Thursday evening. Widespread excellent RH recoveries are likely for
Friday morning.

Stronger flow aloft will arrive Friday and force widespread breezy
conditions across the area. Min RH will trend a tad lower and winds
are expected to remain sub-critical. Ridge top winds will remain
elevated Friday night ahead of the main trough passage for Saturday.
Winds will turn northwest behind a cold front Saturday and force
cooler air across NM through Sunday. Slight chances for rain/snow
showers will be confined to the northern mountains and the northeast
plains.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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