Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 131751 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SLIDES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOMES ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE
SHORTWAVE AND WAA BECOMES CO-LOCATED FOR A TIME. 12Z RUNS DID
SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 1-2C TEMPS ALOFT
AROUND PIERRE...SO HAVE SLID THE ICE ACCUMULATION AND FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINE AS IS (MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING
BETWEEN 2-6 INCHES)...ALTHOUGH IF CONFIDENCE GROWS ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND WILL OCCUR MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES TO A
WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE
EAST. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOCALLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA. THAT SAID WE MAY
STILL HAVE SOME ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIFT IS VERY INTENSE AROUND 00-
06Z AT 25 TO 35 MICROBARS...SO ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CWA. MODELS ALL VARY IN
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GETTYSBURG/PIERRE/MILLER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...A 20MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
LENDS TO LESS GUSTINESS AND LOFTING SO VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE
BAD IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. DRIFTING MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL HOWEVER LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE MILD FOR SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C. THAT MILD AIR STAYS WITH US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING IN
FOR LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.  HOWEVER THAT PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AS ENERGY COMES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST BY THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. THAT BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR FLOWS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STORM SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KMBG AND EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO LOW END IFR AT ALL THE SITES AS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW MOVES THROUGH. COULD BRIEFLY SEE LIFR VISIBILITIES
FIRST OVER THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING AND
THEN AT KABR/KATY BETWEEN 02-08Z (COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH). EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST (VFR CONDITIONS WEST BY MID MORNING)...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-
     004-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SRF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.