Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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237
FXUS63 KABR 241152
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
652 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 356 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Have been seeing isolated showers and storms along the ND/SD
border over the past few hours but now activity has waned to
basically just a few sprinkles over north central SD. Water vapor
imagery does show a weak vort max across western/central SD early
this morning, and as this continues to move east-northeast, any
threat for isolated convection should shift into ND over the next
couple hours.

The short term period looks to be active, although the daytime
period today looks rather uneventful. Will continue to see warm
temperatures today with most locations rising into the 80s. Focus
then shifts to the evening/overnight period as shortwave energy
moves northeast into the region along with a surface wave
reflection. Instability stays on the low end so overall severe storm
threat appears to be low. A few stronger storms are still possible
with gusty winds perhaps. Models agree fairly well on timing with
central SD getting into the act around or shortly after 00Z this
evening. Then, activity continues to push east into the James Valley
and towards I-29 through the night. Low level jet develops overnight
over the eastern CWA, but as mentioned before, instability is held
in check for the most part. CAM solutions all show a fairly well
organized line/cluster of storms pushing across the CWA overnight,
but perhaps some breaks over the eastern CWA late. Nonetheless,
precip chances for tonight are on the high end for many areas.

With the warm front pushing north of the area on Wednesday,
dewpoints within the warm sector increase to around 60 degrees over
the CWA. This will bring more instability over the region by
afternoon compared to what we will see today. Although, models are
not handling subtle upper level features and surface wind shift
boundaries all that well. Regardless, there still appears to be
decent chances for showers and storms, with potential again for
strong to perhaps severe given the increased instability. It is
noted though that best 0-6km shear values are south of the region,
which will likely act to suppress more organized supercell
structures and overall severe storm threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

The active pattern continues across our region from Thursday night
through Monday as all models have remained consistent from run to
run and agree really well with the upper level flow pattern. The
first significant short wave will lift out of the southwest and move
slowly across the central and northern plains from Thursday night
through Saturday night bringing chances of showers and
thunderstorms. The models all then show a large upper low pressure
area setting up over the Pacific Northwest and remaining into Monday.
This will send off several short waves across our region into
Monday...keeping the chances of showers and storms going.
Although...there may be a break in the action Sunday into Sunday
night. Highs will be near to above normal mostly in the mid 70s to
the lower 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 652 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Vfr conditions are expected at all locations through today and
tonight. There may be some fog in the aty area early this morning.
Otherwise...showers and thunderstorms will be spreading into the
region from the southwest this evening and overnight as a short wave
trough moves in.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr



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