Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 101441
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
541 AM AKST Sat Dec 10 2016
The models are in good agreement through Sunday afternoon. All of
the models are still having trouble initializing a strong area of
high pressure centered in the northern Yukon Territory. The
models initialize this area of high pressure 5 to 7 minibars to
low when compared to observations.
Aloft...At 500 mb a 556 dam high centered just north of Utqiagvik
(Barrow) this morning will slide south into the central Interior
today. The high center will remain over the Interior Sunday
before sliding south on Monday. A shortwave approaching from the
west will help amplify the ridge over the Interior on Tuesday.
The ridge will slowly move east and flatten out through the end of
the week in response to several short waves approaching from the
Central and Eastern Interior...A strong 1047 mb high is currently
centered near Old Crow in the Yukon Territory with a ridge
extending east across the Brooks Range and Chukchi Sea. This ridge
will weaken slightly today and then rotate to lie from Northway to
Deadhorse by tomorrow afternoon. Generally cold and dry conditions
with quiet weather will continue under the ridge through the
weekend. There are a few minor weather issues in the Interior in
the short term. Low stratus and flurries will continue in the
southeast Interior along the Canadian Border today. Gusty drainage
winds will continue today in the Tanana and Yukon Valleys;
however, these winds will weaken as the high move north. Satellite this
morning shows and area of higher stratus clouds northeast of a
line from Anaktuvuk Pass to Eagle slowly moving southwest. The
areas under this cloud mass have warmed up overnight. Strong
surface based temperature inversions will persist in areas with
calm winds and little cloud cover and may strengthen somewhat as
temperatures aloft warm today as the upper level high repositions
itself. Models suggest increasing chances of precipitation and a
slight warming trend in the later half of the upcoming work week;
however there is currently a lot of spread in the models in terms
of timing and placement of precipitation.
West Coast and Western Interior....Generally quiet conditions
through Sunday. Two shortwaves will move up the west coast in
quick succession Sunday afternoon though Monday. The shortwaves
will bring snow to St Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta
beginning on Sunday evening. The winds will pick up to 35 to 40
knots in the Bering Sea near St. Lawrence Island on Monday
afternoon. These strong winds combined falling snow may produce
Blizzard conditions Monday afternoon on St. Lawrence Island. We
will continue to monitor this situation. There looks to be
several shortwaves this week that will try ride up over the ridge
in the central Interior that will bring preciptiation to west
coast and western interior; however right now the models differ
in the exact placement of the precipitation.
North Slope...High pressure will dominate the weather in the north
slope through the weekend. Some clouds today om zone 204 and the
eastern portion of zone 206 with potentially a few flurries. Models
are showing increased chances for precipitation after midweek.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.