Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 170002

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKST Mon Jan 16 2017

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z analysis and
verified well against the 18z analysis. Model spread is minimal
through the short range and mid range and remains reasonable
through next weekend. Model spread increases rapidly early next
week as current blocked weather pattern begins to break down.

Aloft at 500 HPA, the broad and cold upper level low over the
eastern Bering Sea and western Alaska will drift slowly east
tonight and Tuesday will be centered over the west coast Tuesday
and the western interior Wednesday. The low continues to drift to
the east and will be centered over the central interior Thursday
and Friday. As the upper level cold low moves to the east the
center of the coldest air mass will move from the western interior
to the central interior. Skies are expected to clear over the
central and eastern interior Tuesday as a low pressure system
currently over Yakutat moves north and east into the northern
Yukon Tuesday night. 1000 to 500 mb thickness values remain
between 492 DM and 486 DM and combined with 850 mb temperatures
near 30 below will provide for rapid cooling on the surface as
clouds and precipitation move out of the area. 40s below and a few
50s below are noted in the western interior and those
temperatures are expected over the central and eastern interior
beginning tuesday night and wednesday morning as skies clear out.

On the surface a 968 mb low over Prince William Sound continues to
weaken as it moves north and east into the southern Yukon Tuesday
morning and the McKenzie Delta Tuesday night. Ongoing winter
weather advisories over the central, eastern interior as well as
the eastern Alaska Range are on track with snow accumulation and
expected end times. Snow will end from south to north late this
evening through Tuesday morning as the system pulls north and east
out of the area. Expect temperatures to plummet from south to
north tomorrow as skies clear. Widespread 40s below are expected
tuesday night and Wednesday morning with a few 50s below in
typical cold spots over the central and eastern interior. Expect
40s and 50s below for low temps and 30s and 40s below for high
temperatures through Friday over much of the interior and 40s
below over the north slope. Wind chill advisories ongoing over the
eastern portions of the northern Brooks Range and Chukchi Sea
Coast where winds combined with temperatures will drop values to
Advisory criteria. Will need to monitor the eastern north slope
and Brooks Range for warning level wind chills.


Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ206-AKZ207.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.


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