Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 301054
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 AM AKDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. WEAK UPPER LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN
MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWEST TO BARROW BAND INTENSIFY THE EXISTING UPPER
LOW BY SAT AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST
TO WEST COLD FRONT IN NORTHWESTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KEEP THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PUSHED OFF INTO CANADA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DO DIVERGE IMMENSELY AFTER TUESDAY THOUGH.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR SUNDAY BUT THAT IS JUST THE PRECURSOR TO WHAT FOLLOWS ON
MONDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE STRONG LOW SETS UP JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AND SENDS A MORE POWERFUL FRONT NORTHWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE THERMAL LOW NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER.
THIS WILL MOVE PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY
POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE FROM BETTLES
SOUTHWESTWARD.

WINDS OVER MOST AREAS WILL BE BENIGN...EXCEPT WE NOTICE THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING SUN NIGHT AND
MON MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WINDS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE OVER EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
AREAS LATE SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE
MOST CERTAINLY TO BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES. THIS MAY BE
A RED FLAG CONDITION AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CF APR 16


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