Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 301117
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
617 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH KDHT AND KGUY AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH KAMA WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ONLY A SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SUBSIDE 21-00Z. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
CWA TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A WHILE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW PLACES THAT FALL INTO THE 33 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.

A COLDER NIGHT COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE EASTERN CWA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN...BELIEVE THAT THE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...BUT SOME READINGS
MAY GET DOWN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA SHOULD KEEP
THESE AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSLATES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY MID DAY SATURDAY. THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES. ONE PIECE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY WHILE ANOTHER
PIECE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO ARIZONA BY MID DAY MONDAY. IT IS
THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH THAT WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY CHANCES
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE GFS
WANTS TO MOVE THIS TROUGH SOUTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE AND IT
WANTS TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS HAPPENS...THEN OUR
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LESS WITH MAYBE ONLY THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE SEEING RAIN. THE ECMWF MODEL WANTS TO CLOSE
OFF A LOW OVER ARIZONA AND THEN IT WANTS TO DRIFT THIS LOW SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THE ECMWF
MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE RIGHT...THEN THE PANHANDLES WOULD BE IN FOR A
BETTER CHANCE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WOULD BE FAVORED...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD
BE MUCH GREATER THAN THOSE OFFERED UP BY THE GFS. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH A COMPROMISE...WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. SO...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POP FORECAST.

AFTER THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES BY THE PANHANDLES...A DRYING
TREND WILL COMMENCE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/15





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