Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171753 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1253 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
EARLIER BAND OF RAIN THAT PRODUCED SOME GREATER THAN QUARTER INCH
TOTALS ACROSS THE CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE HAS WEAKENED IN TANDEM WITH
WEAKENING H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SUCH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
TIME. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO TWEAK AFTERNOON POPS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NUDGE TEMPS DOWNWARD IN SPOTS.

KB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER/LIFT INTO THE VFR
RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...HOWEVER AS NORTHEAST WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING A RETURN OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HAVE INSERTED MVFR CONDITIONS
AT KAMA AND KGUY FROM ROUGHLY 08-15Z. WILL KEEP KDHT VFR FOR
NOW WHERE CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS A LITTLE LOWER...BUT
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONDITIONS COULD DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO GO LOWER THAN MVFR ATTM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MID TO LATE
FRIDAY MORNING...CLEARING OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WAS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS NRN AND ERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA HAS
BEEN A DUD SO FAR. VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED IN THE TX
AND OK PNHDLS. HAVE DECIDED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE POP VALUES FOR THIS
MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CONTINUED TO PLACE HIGHEST POPS ERN HALF OF OK PNHDL EXTENDING INTO
ERN TX PNHDL AS THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THAT AREA
THIS MORNING. LEFT IN LINGERING SLGT CHC POPS FOR ONLY FAR ERN TX
PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPS SEEN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST
RECENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BENIGN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW IS PROGGED TO AFFECT SRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS PARTICULAR
SYSTEM. THE ONCE CONCERN IS THAT MOST MODELS ARE NOT VERY
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT POPS THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS
AND LESS COVERAGE AND ASSOCIATED QPF AMOUNTS THE PAST FEW RUNS.
BECAUSE OF THAT...DID NOT INCREASE POPS FOR ANY PERIOD FRI NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY FOR THIS FCST PCKG. SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FAR WRN TX PNHDL LOOK PLAUSIBLE...FOLLOWED
BY SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT AREAWIDE WITH A TRENDS
TOWARDS DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE PASSING OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IN OK PNHDL AND ERN TX PNHDL. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORESEEN
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS
WE MAY GET DRY SLOTTED FROM THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE OMITTED POPS FOR TUE AND WED.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY. IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...THEN ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15





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