Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 301723 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1223 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS IN THE LOWER END OF VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND MVFR CIGS WILL FILL IN
BEHIND IT. WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GET GUSTY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE DHT TAF SITE LATE IN THIS
FORECAST. BUT WE DID NOT MENTION THEM NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY
HIGH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS HAS BROUGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. A STRATUS DECK IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES DUE TO COLD AIR
UNDERCUTTING SLIGHTLY WARM AIR ALOFT. THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD CLEAR
OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AROUND SUNRISE AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY PRESENTING UPSLOPE FLOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
PANHANDLES. A COMBINATION OF A PASSING VORTICITY MAX AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY VENTURE EAST TOWARDS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES STARTING MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NON-SEVERE...AS 100-200 J/KG OF CAPE (MARGINAL AT BEST) IS PROGGED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BIEDA

LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO, OR JUST SOUTH
OF, THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN RISING LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TOP DOWN MOISTENING
SHOULD OCCUR AND WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH, HAVE ADDED A MENTION
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE
ECMWF TO AROUND 2 DEGREES C AND THIS COMBINED WITH FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK WERE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION.
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MOVES FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY OF DYNAMICS FROM THE
APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CARRY CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OF EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE RUNNING
AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL AND HOW SLOWLY THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF.

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS TO WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THOUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LOOKS PLAUSIBLE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD TO THE
WEST AND A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NUDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTIONS IN THE WESTERN AND
FAR NORTHERN ZONES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 70S OR LOW 80S (CLOSER TO NORMAL) AND A BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OR SHIFTS EAST OF THE PANHANDLES
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION YOU PREFER. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE NEAR TERM...INTRODUCE THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY.

ELSENHEIMER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED...THOUGH AN UPPER
LOW STALLED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  AN UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE WILL INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BTWN 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS AT ALL
TERMINALS.  CIG SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO AOA 5K FT AGL...BUT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AFT 01/06Z WILL PRESENT A CHANCE
OF MVFR CIG LATE IN THE PERIOD.  HAVE HELD WITH VICINITY MENTION OF
SHOWERS UNTIL INCREASED CONFIDENCE CAN BE DETERMINED ON WHICH
TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO SEE RESTRICTIONS.

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  39  51  39  59 /   5  20  60  30  10
BEAVER OK                  63  36  52  39  59 /   5  10  50  50  20
BOISE CITY OK              54  32  43  34  53 /  20  40  70  40  20
BORGER TX                  65  42  53  41  60 /   0  20  60  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              64  37  51  38  59 /  10  30  60  30  10
CANYON TX                  65  37  51  39  59 /   5  30  60  30  10
CLARENDON TX               68  42  58  42  62 /   0  20  40  30  10
DALHART TX                 58  36  47  36  57 /  10  40  60  40  10
GUYMON OK                  59  38  50  39  58 /   5  20  60  40  20
HEREFORD TX                66  37  52  38  61 /  20  30  60  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                65  40  55  41  60 /   0  10  50  50  10
PAMPA TX                   63  40  54  39  60 /   0  20  50  40  10
SHAMROCK TX                69  44  60  43  62 /   0   5  40  40  10
WELLINGTON TX              71  45  63  45  64 /   0   5  20  40  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6



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