Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 050832
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
332 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
AND DEEPER MOISTURE OVER MISSISSIPPI SHIFTS EASTWARD. A MORE
ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE TODAY WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE AN AREA OF MID LEVEL UPPER
FORCING PUSHES INTO WEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
SHORT WAVE TROF. THESE FEATURES WILL GIVE CENTRAL ALABAMA A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BETTER RAIN CHANCES
WILL COME LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROF
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF ENTERS THE AREA.
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME DUE TO WIDESPREAD
MORNING CLOUD COVER...WEAKENING MID LEVEL FORCING...AND MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ON THURSDAY. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING
IMPULSE APPROACHING ALABAMA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS
DECAYING MCS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH
ALABAMA AND ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS A UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS
EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PUT CENTRAL ALABAMA IN A HOT AND MUGGY
PATTERN AND HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO 105 DEGREES OR
HIGHER. THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY STATES. THIS WILL PUT CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO
INCREASED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

06Z TERMINAL FORECAST WILL KEEP ALL SITES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
QUITE A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT THIS WRITING...BUT SOME PLACES
ESPECIALLY SOUTH MAY DROP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES. BUT AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES REALLY MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AND WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE ONE
CHANGE THIS EVENING IS THAT WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS
WE SPEAK...SO WILL MONITOR THE DEW POINT TREND OVERNIGHT.

ADDED SOME CEILINGS BUT STILL VFR. SOME CUMULUS WITH A LAYER OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN SITES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CUMULUS SOUTH. AS THIS
MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AND
WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING JUST YET. BUT CERTAINLY...THE POTENTIAL
WILL BE FRO MORE CONVECTION AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA THAN WE HAVE
SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

A FEW IMPULSES ALOFT WILL DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
HANGING AROUND AFTER 00Z INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE WET PATTERN
WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY....BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     95  73  89  72  89 /  30  40  60  50  40
ANNISTON    94  72  89  72  89 /  30  30  60  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  95  74  90  74  91 /  30  30  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  96  74  92  74  94 /  30  30  60  40  30
CALERA      94  71  89  73  90 /  30  30  60  50  40
AUBURN      91  72  88  73  89 /  30  20  50  40  40
MONTGOMERY  96  75  92  75  92 /  30  20  50  40  40
TROY        94  73  91  73  92 /  40  20  50  30  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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