Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 251753
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Midday Update and 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Rest of this afternoon through Monday

--A reprieve from the tropical air mass; enjoyable weather today
 through Monday--

Plenty of clouds will continue moving through Central Alabama this
afternoon, with periodic peeks of sun offered here and there. As
of 17:40Z/12:40PM, a weak shortwave moving through, in tandem
with a moisture lobe aloft, was still producing radar echoes
across the region. Low-level streamline analysis shows a fetch of
drier air from the north, so am not expecting much change in the
overall atmospheric setup this afternoon; thus, a majority of the
radar echoes won`t produce anything tangible at the ground given
high cloud bases + low sub-cloud humidity values, but a few
`stronger` echoes could yield some sprinkles.

*Thanks to mPING users for submitting reports! You`ve confirmed a
 few spotty instances of rain drops making it to ground level.

Clouds will gradually clear from northwest-to-southeast tonight to
early Monday morning (northern areas starting earlier/this
evening, and southern areas later/overnight to Monday morning).
GOES-16 visible shows portions of northern Mississippi and far
northwest Alabama already seeing a clear sky. Forecast lows
tonight are fantastic for June-in-Alabama standards, settling in
the upper 50s-low 60s north to mid-60s south (F). Fair weather is
expected through Monday, featuring a clear/mostly clear sky and
afternoon highs ranging from the low-mid-80s north to mid-upper
80s south (F). Dew point values on Monday remain below what we`d
typically expect for summertime in the south; you`ll want to take
advantage of that before dew points/mugginess increase later this
week.

89^GSatterwhite

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Saturday

Very pleasant conditions for late June will be the main story for
the first half of the workweek as we dry out with low humidity. A
fairly potent but very moisture starved shortwave in northwest
flow aloft will graze North Alabama late Monday night into
Tuesday. Will have to monitor for any showers left over from any
upstream MCSs moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, but
will keep a dry forecast for now given limited moisture and
instability. The trough will lift out by Wednesday and we will
return to a more typical summer pattern on the west side of the
Bermuda High. Small chances of afternoon convection will return
across the south Wednesday, with low-level southerly flow becoming
established by Thursday resulting in a moist air mass returning.
High temperatures will remain manageable for this time of year in
the upper 80s as an overall weakness in the subtropical ridge
remains in place over the Deep South.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

--VFR conditions today through Monday--

A swath of scattered-to-broken VFR clouds will continue moving
through Central Alabama this afternoon, with a gradual clearing
from northwest-to-southeast, starting this evening for TCL-BHM-
EET-ASN-ANB, and a bit later/overnight to early-morning for MGM-
TOI. There`s a slight chance for a few sprinkles or very isolated
light rain shower with a few of the echoes on Doppler this
afternoon, but drying low-levels will preclude hearty activity/any
mention in the TAFs.

~Northerly surface breezes around 6-11 knots this afternoon
become calm-to-light tonight, increasing to between 5-10 knots
out of the ~north-northeast through Monday.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air continues to move into the region with much lower rain
chances today than previous days. Rain free conditions are
expected Monday and Tuesday with low humidity values for late June.
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  84  60  83  59 /   0   0  10  10   0
Anniston    60  84  61  84  61 /   0   0  10  10   0
Birmingham  62  85  63  85  63 /   0   0  10  10   0
Tuscaloosa  62  86  63  86  63 /   0   0  10  10   0
Calera      63  85  63  85  64 /   0   0  10  10   0
Auburn      65  85  63  84  63 /   0   0  10  10   0
Montgomery  64  88  64  88  65 /   0   0  10  10   0
Troy        65  86  63  86  64 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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