Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 160502 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1202 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TONIGHT AND A FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE TEMPERATURE AT HALEYVILLE HAS ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO 37
AT 9 PM AND TEMPERATURES THERE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S NEAR
SUNRISE. WITH STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...QUESTIONS REMAINED
ABOUT WHETHER WINDS WOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT. SO FAR...WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND GONE CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...SINCE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE RECORD...IF
MONTGOMERY GETS DOWN TO FREEZING THIS WILL BE THE LATEST FREEZE ON
RECORD. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
EVEN THOUGH THE RECORD LATEST FREEZE WILL NOT BE BROKEN FURTHER TO
THE NORTH (IE...BIRMINGHAM...TUSCALOOSA...AND ANNISTON) LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL STILL RANK IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AS FAR AS LATE SEASON FREEZES. FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED SOME OF
THE RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY COLDER THAN FORECAST AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY DEW POINTS.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY THE WINDS AS THE CHANGING
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS CHANGE WITH THE BUILDING OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL STAY UP AT A FEW LOCATIONS A TAD MORE THAN NORMAL FOR
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS ON WEDNESDAY
TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BECOMING MORE
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

08/MK

&&

.CLIMATE...

LATEST FREEZE ON RECORD

BIRMINGHAM       4/23/1986
MONTGOMERY       4/13/1940
TUSCALOOSA       4/21/1953
ANNISTON         4/23/1986

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH

LOCATION     TEMPERATURE      YEAR(S)

BIRMINGHAM       32          1983, 1962, 1950
MONTGOMERY       36          2008, 1950
TUSCALOOSA       31          1950
ANNISTON         30          1950

05/MA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     27  61  37  66  44 /   0   0   0  10  20
ANNISTON    30  63  35  66  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  31  65  38  67  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  30  66  40  69  53 /   0   0   0  10  30
CALERA      32  64  39  68  51 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      31  64  37  67  48 /   0   0  10  10  20
MONTGOMERY  32  66  40  70  53 /   0   0  10  10  30
TROY        30  66  41  69  53 /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$

05/08




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