Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 191502
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1002 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE ALREADY THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHEAST...FELT COMFORTABLE ENOUGH TO UPDATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES WE DO
HAVE THE WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE 9 TO 10 PM TIME
FRAME. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHWEST LATE. THOSE ARE THE ONLY TWO AREAS AT THIS TIME THAT MAY
SEE ANY SHOWERS AFTER 7 PM. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK AND WILL ONLY
ADJUST THE MORNING TRENDS.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE EAST TODAY AND PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION
LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. EVEN WITH THESE BOUNDARIES...ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EQUAL BUT LOW CHANCES AT ALL SITES.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY
MENTION OF STORMS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS TODAY.

14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO COME THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS DON`T SHOW A LOT OF QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT I GOTTA THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH.

IT SEEMS THAT WE`VE BEEN ANTICIPATING A FALL-LIKE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...BUT AS THEY APPROACH THEY`VE BEEN
STALLING OUT. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM
HOWEVER...I AM GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL BE THE ONE TO
FINALLY USHER IN SOME MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

/61/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  64  84  64  86 /  30  10   0   0  10
ANNISTON    85  65  83  65  86 /  40  10   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  66  85  67  87 /  30  10   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  91  68  88  68  90 /  20  10   0   0  10
CALERA      88  66  85  66  88 /  20  10   0   0  10
AUBURN      88  65  84  65  88 /  40  10  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  90  67  86  67  90 /  20  10  10   0   0
TROY        90  65  86  65  89 /  30  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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