Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 222345
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
545 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017
For 00Z Aviation.
An upper low is currently spinning across the Northeast Gulf of
Mexico. Some light isolated rain showers are wrapping around this
upper low swinging around it from east to west across the area
this afternoon but are tiny/spotty and should not last long at any
one spot. This convection should decrease in coverage as we
progress toward sunset and the upper low continues to nudge
toward the southern half of Florida. Will leave in some low rain
chances in the east for this evening to account for a few stray
showers as the system exits. We have stayed cloudy for the most
part today across Central Alabama and dew points have remained
up, so some patchy fog with this moist boundary layer will be
possible after midnight tonight across Central Alabama. As for
overnight low temperatures with no major change in airmass, higher
dew points, some lingering cloud cover and the possibility of fog
mild temperatures will remain and lows may only be a couple of
degrees lower at best for tonight.
Thursday through Tuesday.
For Thursday into Friday the forecast area will be situated
between troughs, one moving toward the Plains and the other near
the Bahamas. In between, a 500mb ridge with strong anticyclonic
curvature will lead to subsidence and very warm temperatures.
Highs should range from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
A fairly strong surface low near 990mb should track from Kansas
toward the Great Lakes, but the upper trough near the Bahamas will
prevent strong moisture recovery. Just enough moisture should
arrive as the front moves into Alabama for showers to develop
Friday night into early Saturday, but rainfall amounts are
expected to be generally under 1/4 inch. Rain should end around
daybreak Saturday with cooler and drier conditions through Sunday.
Warm advection with a zonal upper-level pattern could lead to
another chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday as a moist
southwesterly low-level flow regime sets up. Abnormally warm
temperatures are expected once again with a strong low-amplitude
500mb ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas.
00Z TAF Discussion.
Clouds have scattered out this afternoon and maintained scattered
conds thru the evening hours. A moist low level easterly flow
will continue thru the period, and low clouds will likely develop
between 04z and 06z as the air mass cools, initially arnd 1500 ft
agl. The cigs will lower after 06z with IFR cigs expected at all
sites by 09z. The cigs will stay IFR until 15z and then mix out by
18z. Boundary layer winds 10-15 knots overnight should hinder fog
formation. A few shwrs possible across southeast Alabama, but not
significant enough to include in forecast.
A few spotty light rain showers will continue into early evening.
Dry and warm conditions return for Thursday and Friday. The next
chance of light rain should come Friday night with a front. There
are no fire weather concerns.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 53 74 54 77 50 / 10 0 0 10 60
Anniston 56 74 55 77 52 / 20 0 0 10 40
Birmingham 56 75 58 78 50 / 10 0 0 10 40
Tuscaloosa 55 77 56 80 49 / 10 0 0 10 40
Calera 56 76 57 78 51 / 10 0 0 10 40
Auburn 57 75 56 78 55 / 20 0 0 10 20
Montgomery 57 78 57 81 55 / 10 0 0 10 20
Troy 56 77 56 81 55 / 20 0 0 10 20