Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 281307
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
Issued By National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia
906 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Quite a bit of activity on radar still this morning as the slow
moving boundary continues to slide southward. Expecting the
southern extent of the boundary to stall shortly and be then main
focus for this afternoon convection across the area. With this
boundary being the only focus will only go with scattered showers
and storms during the day, with the majority of the activity along
the I-20 corridor and then spreading from there. Much like earlier
tonight, I do not think the convection will dissipate right at 7
pm so continued with isolated to scattered showers/storms through
10 pm then reduced the chances to just isolated through the night.
It does appear that the boundary may shift northward overnight and
will slide into the northern portions of the area by Wednesday
morning. Wednesday activity looks to be just isolated and should
dissipate between 6 and 7 pm.

Eyes will then shift west toward the large storm complex that will
be moving through the Mississippi on Wednesday/Wednesday night
and then enter our area Thursday afternoon, before spreading
through on Thursday night. There still is a severe threat to this
system as models continue to show instability abound with the
system. SPC has continued a slight/marginal chance across the area
for that time frame and see no reason to disagree at this time.
With that said though, a new wrinkle into the forecast will be the
coastal development on Thursday afternoon. How much of this
development will keep the strongest storms to our south and cut us
off from the prime environment. This will be a wait and see but
something that would cause a little bit more of uncertainty to the
forecast.

Dry through Sunday afternoon with the next system working next
Monday. This will be another system that will be worth watching
and will likely have a some severe punch with it as well. However
at this time models are differing in position and timing of the
support so will leave out of the hazardous weather outlook but
will need to keep an eye on it.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.
North rain ending in the next 2 hours with MVFR through 16 to 18Z.
Isolated IFR at ANB/  Just went with VCSH for the afternoon. That
boundary will be along the I-20 corridor so that is where the
activity should fire, but very low confidence on when and exact
locations. South, IFR at TOI through 14Z then improving conditions
Only locations that I have dropping to IFR by this time tomorrow is
TOI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Central Alabama will remain in a warm and moist pattern through the
week, with the highest rain chances Thursday and then again on
Monday. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through
the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     78  55  81  58  80 /  40  20  20  10  40
Anniston    78  58  82  59  82 /  40  30  20  10  30
Birmingham  79  60  83  60  81 /  40  20  20  10  50
Tuscaloosa  81  62  85  61  79 /  40  20  20  10  70
Calera      78  61  84  60  81 /  40  30  20  10  50
Auburn      78  59  83  60  81 /  30  20  20  10  20
Montgomery  82  62  86  59  84 /  30  20  20  10  30
Troy        83  61  86  58  83 /  30  20  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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