Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 101117
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
417 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

IT ALREADY FEELS LIKE SPRING WHERE WESTERLY BREEZES HAVE KICKED IN
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. EARLY MORNING TEMPS HAD RISEN INTO THE MID
50S FROM AROUND BOULDER INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DENVER
SUBURBS. ONLY SHALLOW INVERSIONS EXISTED ELSEWHERE WITH STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK.

A CONTINUATION OF DOWNSLOPE...WARM ADVECTION...AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A NARROW RIBBON OF MOUNTAIN WAVE
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO STOP THE WARMUP. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A MORE BROAD
WAVE CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PER
SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS COULD SHAVE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM MAX POTENTIAL TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH 700 MB TEMPS RISING TO
5-6C...MOST LOCATIONS IN THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. FARTHER EAST...SNOW COVER WILL HAVE SOME COOLING
EFFECT BUT THE COMBINATION OF DOWNSLOPE...SHALLOW INVERSIONS...
AND BETTER MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW EVEN THE DEEPER SNOW COVERED
AREAS TO RISE INTO THE 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30
MPH WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS WITH BETTER MIXING
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS
IN/RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS TO 40 TO 55
MPH WITH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT THIS MORNING. ONLY SPOTS
THAT WILL MISS OUT ON THE WARMING WILL BE THE LOWER VALLEYS OF
GRAND AND JACKSON COUNTIES WHERE INVERSIONS ARE STRONGER AS
EVIDENCED BY TEMPS STARTING OFF THIS MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.

FOR TONIGHT...THE WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT DECREASES A BIT THIS
EVENING ONLY TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW
INCREASING BACK TO 30 KNOTS AND A LITTLE BETTER MOUNTAIN TOP
STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY SUPPORT PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN/RIGHT
NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WARMEST
TEMPS AGAIN IN/NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS WITH BETTER DOWNSLOPE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

LOTS OF RIDGINESS IN STORE FOR THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES COMING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WILL BE EXPERIENCED
ON THURSDAY. STILL...THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S...A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NORMAL FOR MID-FEBRUARY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING ON SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE ON THE
PLAINS. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ONCE AGAIN...THE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MANAGE TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL THEN FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES...
APPROACHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...OWING TO SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND HIGHER EXPOSED LOCATIONS WILL BE
BREEZY AT TIMES DUE TO THE CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WINDS. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AT KBJC
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH MOST GUSTS IN THE
24-32 KNOT RANGE. AT KDEN AND KAPA...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO MORE WESTERLY THROUGH 18Z AND THEN NORTHWEST BY
21Z AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. AS THE WINDS TURN...THEY WILL ALSO
HAVE A TENDENCY TO STRENGTHEN WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THEN WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING 00Z-
02Z AND TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY CLOSER TO 10-12 KNOTS. KBJC SHOULD
ALSO WEAKEN BUT MAY GUST TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TOWARD 12Z THURSDAY
WITH REDEVELOPING MOUNTAIN WAVE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CIRRUS CLOUDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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