Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 061120 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
620 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 6SM WITH MIST AT KPIL. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS 500MB RIDGE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS
THE LOWER TX COAST SAT AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW WILL DRIFT E INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS S
TEXAS INCREASING SE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW SYSTEM
MOVES E LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
DEVELOPING ISO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE SAT NIGHT. PERTURBATION WITHIN
THE SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE
TROUGH EXITS MONDAY BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WITH WEAK 500 MB
VORTICES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PREVAIL IN THE S-SE
SURFACE FLOW THROUGH DAY 7. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERALL TEMPS NEAR
TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS WEER NEAR 1 FOOT WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO PROVIDES A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
PAC NW WILL TRAVEL EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INC TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCA. THE SE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOTH THE LOWER TX BAY AND GULF WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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