Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 301139 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
639 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Some isold sea breeze convection may form up during
the afternoon hours possibly reducing ceilings/vsbys briefly down
to MVFR levels from 18-20z. Will cover this convective potential
with some vcts wording during the afternoon hours. Otherwise as
500 mb ridging gradually builds over the region expect vfr
conditions to prevail for most of the upcoming taf period for all
three RGV airports.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday): The broad weakness in the 500 mb
ridging in place over the southern United States will shift
gradually west through this weekend. This will allow a more
subsident environment to build steadily over the RGV allowing for a
gradual decrease in the afternoon conv potential as the deeper layer
moisture drops. Will maintain some 10 to 20 % pops throughout the
short term period which is in line with a blend of the NAM/GFS and
ECMWF numerical guidance. Since the 500 mb ridging will be
rebuilding over the region expect temps to stay close to persistence
which is also supported by the numerical model trends. The ECMWF has
a slight warmer bias versus the NAM and GFS temps. Since the ECMWF
temps are a little closer to persistence values from the last
several days will go on the warmer side of guidance especially for
high temps for Saturday and Sunday.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): 500 mb ridging will
become centered over Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico through
much of the forecast period. Subsidence at the surface and aloft
will result in hot and generally rain-free conditions across Deep
South Texas through late week. Rain chances may begin to increase
towards the end and beyond the long term forecast period. Both GFS
and ECMWF continue to suggest that the central Atlantic tropical
wave will move into the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Mexico next Friday
or Saturday. Deep South Texas could see at least some increase in
tropical moisture by late in the week. Please refer to the
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
for the latest on this tropical wave.

MARINE (Today through Sunday): The latest data from Buoy020
indicates offshore winds around 15 knots from the south early this
morning with surface obs near the coastline report south winds
around 5 knots. The surface pgf will remain fairly weak today likely
keeping the surface flow on the edge of SCEC crit. The pgf will then
strengthen on Sunday as a surface low develops and moves into the
south central plains states. This may push the marine conditions
into SCEC/marginal SCA range on Sunday.

Sunday night through Wednesday night: Broad surface high pressure
will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through midweek. Light to
moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected along
lower Texas coast through the period.


.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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