Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 211112 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
612 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Satellite images and surface observations indicate
mostly clear skies across the CWA this morning. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail across the Rio Grande valley and northern
ranchlands today as the 500mb ridge across the south-central
United States continues to provide subsidence across the area.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017/
SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday): 500mb ridge across the
south- central United States and northeast Mexico will continue to
provide subsidence across the Rio Grande valley and northern
ranchlands today through Saturday. A 500mb low across the northern
Gulf coast will move westward across the northwest Gulf coast
Saturday. Rain chances will be limited across the CWA through the
short term. Will continue with persistence for temperatures today
through Saturday.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): The weak mid-level
low will move into the upper Texas coast by Sunday with Deep South
Texas remaining on the dry, subsident side. Surface high pressure
over the northern Gulf will maintain moderate southeast flow,
continuing to bring high dew points and warm temperatures across
the area this weekend. Heat Indices will likely range from 105 to
110F across the Rio Grande Valley Sunday and Monday with gusty
winds at times.

Some relief will hopefully come as we reach the middle part of
the week with deeper moisture surging northward from the Bay of
Campeche. There are still some model discrepancies with the GFS
being the wetter solution and wanting to develop an inverted
trough/low over northeast Mexico. The ECMWF solution keeps the
majority of the moisture well to the south with stronger ridging
over north Texas, suppressing convection further to the south.
Have decided to make only minor changes to the previous forecast,
keeping 20 to 30% PoPs through Friday.

MARINE (Today through Saturday): Seas were near 3 feet with
south winds near 16 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light
southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters today with
weak surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will
be higher offshore the lower Texas coast tonight. Moderate south
to southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico
Saturday with low pressure across southwest Kansas increasing the
pressure gradient slightly across the lower TX coast.

Saturday night through Thursday: Moderate southeast winds and
building seas are expected this weekend into early next week as
low pressure develops over the Central Plains and tightens the
pressure gradient along the lower Texas Coast. Small Craft
Exercise Caution conditions will be likely with winds ranging from
15 to 20 kts and seas building to 4 to 6 feet.



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