Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 191244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES EARLY THIS
MORNING GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
DRYING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. A
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO LOOK
POSSIBLE AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL WEATHER RADARS SHOW THAT A WINTRY
MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IS GENERALLY CONFINED
TO CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF A VERY LIGHT SNOW. WILL
EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS FOR
MONROE...WAYNE...ONTARIO...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO WHERE PRECIP
HAS BEEN REPORTED AND ALSO DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO AND ITS LACUSTRINE ENVIRONMENT AND THE GREATER CHANCE OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIP.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A CLEARING LINE DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. MESO SCALE MODELS ARE MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS CLEARING TREND...BUT WILL HOLD BACK ON BRINGING
TOO MUCH CLEARING TO THE REGION UNTIL MORE OF A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THIS CLEARING LINE IS EVIDENT.

TEMPS TODAY WILL SHOW LITTLE RECOVERY FRONT THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS...GENERALLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE
TEENS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS AND SOUTHEAST CANADA AT
THE START OF THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE ONLY REAL ISSUE LOOKS TO BE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND IMPACTS
UPON THE TEMPERATURE CYCLE. THE MODEL TREND IS TOWARD HIGHER LOW
LEVEL HUMIDITY SATURDAY. WEAK WIND FIELDS...ALONG WITH LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD KEEP ANY PARTIAL CLEARING FAIRLY
LIMITED. THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S.

CLOUDS LIKELY TO HOLD IN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT UNDERNEATH
STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LITTLE TEMPERATURES
VARIATION WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S...ALTHOUGH A BIT MORE
CLEARING COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WITH TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS THERE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS A BIT
MORE EASTWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGESTING INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
SUNSHINE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOTCH A BIT UPWARD SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR MAINE WILL RIDGE BACK INTO OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO
THE REGION. AFTER THIS A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS
MID-SECTION WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT SW-NE TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THIS...BUT
ALL HAVE THE FEATURE TO SOME EXTENT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LIKELY
TO DEVELOP MID-WEEK. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT
WHICH WILL DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE
EASTERN STATES AND WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY 12Z GUIDANCE OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. A
12Z CONSENSUS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT
STILL HAS A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR ONTARIO ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

FOR OUR REGION...IT WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A RAINY AND WINDY
DAY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STILL HAS OUR REGION PRIMARILY IN THE WARM
SECTOR UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW. CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND/OR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY BE -6 TO -8C...WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN MARGINAL 850MB TEMPERATURES...THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A PROLIFIC SNOW PRODUCER. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW AND UPSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...MOST
LIKELY TO BE IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS. HOWEVER THIS COULD
CHANGE TOO IF MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS
IN THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH
THE FORECAST STILL A LONG WAYS OFF.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL PRODUCE ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW EARLY TODAY...AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE THIS
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO UPPER MVFR OR VFR BY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIES THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR WITH CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ENDING.
SATURDAY TO MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN
A PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ003>006-014.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH








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