Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 010835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SET UP A COOL
AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN
SPOTS. COLDER AND EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD
TAPER OFF. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHICH WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO OUR REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 400 AM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST STARTING TO GET ORGANIZED
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROF SAT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS HAS SET UP A NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS MOST OF THE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED IN THE LOW
LEVELS...MOST LIKELY A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.

THERE IS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND EXTENDING TO ROCHESTER AND ERIE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...WITH THE HRRR VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR AND A BLEND OF MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE...EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES EAST...DRIER (BUT COLDER) AIR WILL BUILD IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION LEAVING
IT MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPSLOPE REGIONS.

MEANWHILE...SNOW IS NOT THAT FAR AWAY...WITH COOLER AIR JUST TO THE
WEST BOTH HAMILTON AND TORONTO REPORTED LIGHT SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES
DROP...EXPECT RAIN TO START MIXING WITH SNOW THIS MORNING...FIRST
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BUT EVEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER ARE LIKELY TO
SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO RAIN TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION TODAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 1800FT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET DAYTIME HEATING...WITH RELATIVELY STEADY
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CAUSE SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN TO
AROUND -6C BY 00Z SUN...WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
AWAY FROM THE LAKES WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE.

DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE JUST MOIST ENOUGH TO FOR SNOW GROWTH
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL DRY OUT AND LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN NORTHERLY UPSLOPE REGIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS REGARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL END
PRECIPITATION AND RESULT IN JUST LAKE INDUCED STRATUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500 HPA PATTERN WILL START THIS PERIOD...WITH A WESTERN
TROUGH...PLAINS RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH.

SUNDAY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY REGION...WITH THE LAST OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FOUND WITHIN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT
THESE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE SNOW. SUFFICIENT DRYING IN THE MID
AND LOWER LEVELS SHOULD START AREAS NEAR THE LAKES MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY...WHILE INLAND AND HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY START RATHER CLOUDY BEFORE
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.

THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING ALOFT SUNDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST...AND ALSO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SUNSHINE...A COLD START TO THE DAY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SIMILAR
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...WHICH WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE PLAINS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST COASTLINE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD AND
CROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT MAY BE NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY BRING A FEW
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH LAKE
PARAMETERS POOR FOR LAKE EFFECT...WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES OF 4 TO 5C AT 850 HPA WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES MONDAY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING MID WEST STORM SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY BRING
A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE. A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN AND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE
UPPER PLAINS AND PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SOUTHWESTERN HUDSON BAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
NEW YORK STATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHEARING
OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM
THE WEAKENING FRONT...AND VORTICITY ADVECTION/HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT TO
WARRANT LIKELY POPS FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. QPF IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

GFS AND ECMWF SHOW GREATEST DIFFERENCES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. BY 00Z FRIDAY...GFS DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FOR THE SAME TIMEFRAME...ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH FROM JUST EAST OF JAME BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH
MODEL SOLUTIONS PROVIDE CHANCE POPS WED THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY THU. GFS BRINGS IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEREAS ECMWF BRINGS THE COLDER AIR IN ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH THE CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THE SECOND
HALF WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND...FROM HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUF/IAG/ROC...EXPECT MAINLY IFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN WITH A 30 KT
NORTHERLY FLOW AT 925 AND LAKE AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TODAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. MEANWHILE CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 1K FT LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO THE VFR CATEGORY THIS
EVENING.

JHW...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT TO THE NORTH...WITH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THEN ONLY
A MODEST IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT.

ART...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AVERAGING AROUND 3K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR WITH DIMINISHING LEFTOVER RAIN AND WET
SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION THAT
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE STRONG
COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL







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