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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 130305
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
905 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED OR REMOVED POPS FROM FOOTHILLS AND SHERIDAN FOR THE REST
OF THE EVENING. CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND
AIR MASS OVER PLAINS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT CAN SUPPORT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE BEARTOOTHS BY
LATE EVENING...AND THATS ABOUT IT. PLEASANT SUMMER EVENING ON TAP. BT

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND KEEPING CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
IN A NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED
WELL WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. THIS WAVE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR
WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CONFINED TO WEST OF A LINE FROM HARLOWTON...COLUMBUS TO SHERIDAN.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE THIS
EVENING BUT ISOLATED CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...BUFKIT
CONTINUING TO SHOW MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THIS WILL KEEP DRY
WEATHER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY IN RESPONSES TO A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASING
HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL BRING DRY WEATHER OVER THE
PLAINS WITH SEASONAL NEAR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. UPPER LOW TO OUR
EAST WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
THIS WILL BRING 5 TO 10 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDER CUT THE RIDGE OF
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES AGAIN TODAY AS MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK AND DIVERGE FROM THURSDAY
ON. EVEN THOUGH DIFFERENT MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MODELS CHANGING A BIT WITH EACH RUN.

UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN WILL KEEP US COOLER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO KEEP US QUITE AS COOL AS INDICATED YESTERDAY. INHERITED
TEMPS FORECAST LOOKS SOLID...OR AT LEAST AS SOLID AS THEY CAN BE
WITH SHIFTING OF THE LOW EVERY COUPLE OF RUNS.

AVAILABLE PWATS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE AS WELL FOR THIS PERIOD...SO
SHOWER AND THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE A BIT BETTER. BEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE IN WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NORTHERLY
FLOW...BRINGS UPSLOPE FLOW INTO PLAY...WHILE ENERGY SLIPPING DOWN
THE LEESIDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL ENERGY TO THE SYSTEM. DID MAKE A FEW MINOR INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO HIGHER PROGGED PWATS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH GFS
PROGS...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. STILL LOOKS LIKE SHOULD WARM UP INTO
90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RIDGING TAKING OVER. IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THIS RIDGING WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIRTY...WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
AFTER THURSDAY HOWEVER..SO SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWER AND
THUNDER POTENTIAL EACH DAY. AAG

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY IMPACT THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND BIG
HORN MTNS UNTIL 05Z. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW AS WE REMAIN DOMINATED
BY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/087 058/081 056/081 056/087 058/093 060/089 060/087
    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 051/085 051/081 051/080 050/084 052/089 054/086 053/085
    20/U    12/T    33/T    33/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 058/089 055/082 055/082 056/087 059/094 061/091 062/088
    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 059/085 054/078 054/082 056/086 060/093 063/090 064/089
    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    22/T    22/T
4BQ 058/085 053/077 053/079 055/084 058/091 062/091 062/088
    00/U    01/U    11/U    22/T    21/U    12/T    23/T
BHK 053/079 047/071 048/076 052/081 056/088 060/088 061/085
    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    23/T
SHR 054/084 052/078 052/078 051/080 054/088 057/087 058/086
    11/U    12/T    23/T    32/T    22/T    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS