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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 281607
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
907 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED AND GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH THE LATEST COMING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPDATE FOR
THIS MORNING WAS MINOR...JUST SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUN LATER TODAY. HOOLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY WILL BE COLDER BUT
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DID HEDGE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED OFF AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE HAD BEEN
SUGGESTING...THUS WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER
DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER...BUT STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH FREEZING. AS A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW SOME LIGHT
QPF AROUND BACKER...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES NOT. REIMER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
EVENT FOR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING A STRONG WAVE INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT.
700MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -30C WILL SET UP A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE INTO WHICH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS CAN PRODUCE STRONG
LIFT. SREF SHOWING INDICATIONS OF 2 INCH PER HOUR OR GREATER
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE INCREASED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BUMPED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS PERIOD. PENCILED IN ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST
OF A ROUNDUP TO BROADUS LINE...WITH UPWARDS OF A FOOT FOR
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW SEVERAL INSTANCES THAT
SUPPORT THESE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO LAST LESS THAN 18 HOURS BUT LOOKS
LIKE SNOW COULD HIT LIKE A TON OF BRICKS ONCE IT GETS GOING
ESPECIALLY FOR RED LODGE...NYE...SHERIDAN AND STORY. WILL BE
CONTEMPLATING WINTER STORM WATCHES ON THE DAY SHIFT IF MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WELL.

SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS SOUTH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT. FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SHOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED AND BACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER TIME. THIS WILL INDUCE A DOWNSLOPE SURFACE GRADIENT
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. CHAMBERS
&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY OVER RUNNING COLDER SURFACE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 006/030 015/038 006/010 901/024 015/041 025/047
    2/J 10/U    01/B    86/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
LVM 023 901/030 013/037 002/009 909/025 014/040 025/045
    3/J 20/U    02/W    98/S    21/B    10/N    11/B
HDN 023 005/032 011/040 008/013 902/024 011/042 022/047
    2/J 11/U    00/B    76/S    20/B    00/B    01/B
MLS 021 006/028 010/037 005/011 902/019 011/041 023/046
    1/B 11/B    00/U    43/S    10/B    00/B    01/B
4BQ 021 003/029 010/037 006/011 903/019 007/041 020/047
    1/B 11/B    00/U    56/S    10/B    00/B    11/B
BHK 019 004/026 008/034 003/009 905/016 005/039 020/043
    1/B 12/J    00/U    32/S    11/B    00/B    01/B
SHR 020 001/026 005/035 005/006 911/016 006/039 019/044
    2/J 11/U    00/U    98/S    21/U    10/U    01/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
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