Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
FXUS65 KBYZ 291542
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
942 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016
Forecast update mainly to dissipate stratus and remaining fog over
far eastern Montana by 11am. Visible satellite showing significant
holes developing in the stratus layer and observations show
improvement as well so expect by 11 am most areas should be seeing
sunny conditions. For the rest of the area will see a weak
shortwave trof move southeast across the area this afternoon.
Satellite showing weak mid level convection already with this
feature to the north of the area. Models continue to advertise at
least a few thunderstorms getting going mid afternoon in response
to this system and associated mid level instability over area
mountains. Like the going precipitation chances in the forecast.
It does look like a quick stabilization will occur this evening so
cut precipitation chances off by 9 pm. Temperatures look on track
for 85 to 90 degrees central and west, with slightly cooler
readings expected over southeast Montana this afternoon. Chambers
.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...
No significant changes were made to the short term forecast
period for this package.
Water Vapor imagery tonight clearly shows a short wave moving
southeastward through Alberta. Its influence is responsible for
an area of convection currently moving across north central
Montana. Some of the short term proggs bring this activity into
northern Rosebud County this morning and vaguely shift it into the
southeast corner of Montana in the afternoon. Elsewhere...the high
country may see some convection from differential heating and
local convergence by afternoon. Otherwise...models not very
bullish on convection today, likely due to a lack of strong forcing.
I will keep a slight chance PoP across the entire CWA, but it does
not look very active relative to the earlier part of the week.
Shear looks rather limited so believe severe threat is rather
limited as well.
We will see some modest ridging on Saturday in response to a sharp
trough dropping down through British Columbia. Pre-frontal warming
will push temps well into the 90s and RH readings should dive into
the teens to lower 20s range. Models suggest some weak impulses
ahead of the main trough may fire off some convection Saturday
evening over our mountains. Inherited PoP forecast already handled
this well. BT
.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...
Models continue to be in good agreement through the extended
period. High pressure ridging will be in place over the forecast
area Sunday in response to an upper low and trough that will be
situated over southwest Canada. This will result in dry conditions
and hot temperatures with readings well into the 90s.
As the upper low and trough move across southern Canada it will
bring a weak front across the forecast area Sunday
afternoon/evening resulting in a slight chance for a shower or
thunderstorm. Otherwise, the front will not have much impact
except to lower temperatures just a few degrees for Monday.
Weak ridging builds Monday into Tuesday as a stronger upper low
and trough move onto the Pacific Northwest coast. As this system
moves north then east across southern Canada it will sweep a
stronger front across the forecast area late Tuesday afternoon or
evening along with a returned chance for showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure ridging then slowly builds back again
Wednesday into Friday. Compressional warming ahead of the front
Tuesday will allow temperatures to warm well into the 90s before
cooling back to around normal values for Wednesday and Thursday.
VFR conditions will prevail today. However, some low
ceilings will continue for the KBHK area and along the Dakota
borders through 18Z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon and early evening, and may produce brief
MVFR conditions. Hooley/Reimer
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
BIL 087 062/095 065/095 061/091 062/094 059/085 057/086
2/T 20/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 11/U
LVM 087 053/096 055/092 051/090 055/091 050/083 048/086
2/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 11/U
HDN 089 059/098 063/096 061/093 062/098 058/086 056/088
2/T 20/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 086 062/096 066/096 064/092 065/097 062/087 058/086
2/T 10/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 11/U
4BQ 086 060/096 066/097 063/093 064/098 061/087 057/088
2/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
BHK 082 056/091 062/095 061/089 061/092 060/084 055/084
2/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 22/T 11/U
SHR 086 055/097 059/094 059/090 059/095 056/085 053/086
2/T 21/U 13/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 11/U