Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231943
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
243 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered in the Bahamas will be moving farther off
the Southeast Coast Friday. A cold front approaching from the
northwest will move through the forecast area Saturday. Little
moisture will be associated with the front but it will be
breezy. Dry high pressure will dominate early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure near the Florida East Coast will be moving farther
off the Southeast Coast tonight with ridging becoming more
dominate in the forecast area. Low-level moisture in the onshore
flow associated with the low combined with heating could
possibly help support showers in the forecast area this
afternoon, but with just shallow moisture and building upper
ridging the chance should remain very low. The high-resolution
models display isolated shower coverage at most. Observation
trends support highs in the upper 70s this afternoon.

The main forecast concern tonight is the fog potential. There
should be lingering low-level moisture associated with the
onshore flow. The models indicate less boundary layer wind
compared to the previous night and aloft it should be drier
associated with the upper ridging. All the NAM and GFS MOS plus
SREF guidance indicate fog. There may be a period of dense fog
during the early morning hours. The temperature guidance was
close with lows in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...A ridge aloft will build over the Southeastern states
on Friday with weak surface high pressure ridging into the
forecast area from the southwest. A low pressure system over
the Midwest will shift northeast on Friday with an associated
cold front moving through the Mississippi River Valley. Model
forecast soundings show warm air advection across the area ahead
of the approaching system. Dry and warm weather is expected
under mostly sunny skies. Daily records may be reached or
exceeded at CAE and AGS. The daily record for Friday at CAE is
81 degrees and for AGS is 82 degrees, both set in 1985. Lows
Saturday morning in the middle 50s.

Saturday...A cold front will move into the forecast area
Saturday morning and quickly shift east. 12Z models continue to
place the deepest moisture well north of the forecast area so
have indicated only slight chance pops north Saturday morning
and dry conditions Saturday afternoon. Tight pressure gradient
behind the front will promote breezy conditions with 15 to 20
mph sustained surface winds and gusts to 25 mph. A lake wind
advisory may be required. Above normal high temperatures
expected once again on Saturday although a few degrees cooler
than Friday, with highs in the lower 70s west to upper 70s east.
Near normal low temperatures in the wake of the front on Sunday
morning, in the upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will shift east over the forecast area
on Sunday and slip off the coast Sunday evening. Mostly sunny
skies on Sunday with near normal temperatures, in the lower to
middle 60s. Unsettled weather is expected Monday and Tuesday
associated with the next low pressure system so have continued
with slight chance/chance pops although models still differ on
the timing and amount of available moisture. A cold front is
expected to move into the area late Wednesday and shift east of
the area Thursday bringing another chance for showers. Above
normal temperatures are expected Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through this evening. The main
concern is fog during the early morning hours Friday.

Low pressure near the Florida East Coast will be moving farther
off the Southeast Coast tonight with ridging becoming more
dominate in the forecast area. Low-level moisture in the onshore
flow associated with the low combined with heating could
possibly help support showers in the forecast area this
afternoon, but with just shallow moisture and building upper
ridging the chance should remain very low. The high-resolution
models display isolated shower coverage at most.

The main forecast concern tonight is the fog potential. There
should be lingering low-level moisture associated with the
onshore flow. The models indicate less boundary layer wind
compared to the previous night and aloft it should be drier
associated with the upper ridging. All the NAM and GFS MOS plus
many SREF members indicate IFR fog developing. Heating and
mixing should result in a return to VFR conditions later Friday
morning. We followed the GFS LAMP for the timing.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front with limited moisture
will bring breezy conditions Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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