Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 011444
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1044 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. FRONT AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE COAST...WITH IN SITU WEDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CAROLINAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE MIDLANDS.

AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS WAS PRODUCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH MIDLANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF SUMTER AND LEE COUNTIES. THIS AREA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE PEE DEE REGION BY MIDDAY.

ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER MS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO OUR N AND NE WHILE APPEARING TO MOVE THE
COASTAL FRONT INLAND. DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS.

WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY GENERALLY WEAK TODAY WITH LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2C TO -3C AND WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 500MB AT OR
BELOW 25 KNOTS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC WITH LOW LCL AROUND 2000 FT. THINK HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLOODING POTENTIAL IS GREATEST RISK WITH AROUND 10KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTH SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND STORM MOTIONS
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS. TRAINING OF STORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW...THOUGH
WATER-LOADED DOWNBURSTS MAY PRODUCE A DAMAGING GUST OR TWO FROM
THE MOST INTENSE CELLS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITH LOWS
IN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST...WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING IN PLACE. IT APPEARS THE FRONT AND AXIS OF BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK IN SITU WEDGE ACROSS THE W
CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE POPS CONTINUE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z.

MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVERRUNNING A WARM FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A
WEAK UP-SLOPE COMPONENT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND
MIDDAY...BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFLICTING MODEL
GUIDANCE MAKES IT TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING SO
WILL ONLY INCLUDE VICINITY SHOWERS AND NO PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS
AT THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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