Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 262309
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
709 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. Moisture
and instability will increase for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
An upper level ridge will remain over the southeastern overnight.
At the surface....Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the
region. Warm air aloft combined with weak instability and
subsidence beneath the upper ridge will hold dry weather across
much of the area. isolated showers remain just outside of the cwa,
and can not rule out a brief shower across the Pee Dee this
evening. Majority of the CWA will remain dry overnight. Lows in
the middle/upper 70s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature both aloft
and at the surface on Wednesday. Subsidence aloft will limit
convective development with only isolated diurnal convection
expected, focused mainly along the lee-side trough and also along
the sea breeze. The ARW and NMM hi-resolution models support only
isolated activity. Wednesday will again be hot and steamy with
high temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoint temperatures in
the 70s. This will result in heat indices generally peaking in the
103 to 106 degree range, thus no heat advisory is expected.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level ridge will continue over the region on Thursday
before weakening Saturday as a shortwave trough moves into the
mid Mississippi and Ohio river valleys. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Thursday and Friday as development
will be limited by subsidence aloft. The better chances for
convection appear to be over the weekend with scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected. Moisture will increase late Saturday
and Sunday with precipitable water values near 1.9 inches.
Temperatures above normal with highs in the mid/upper 90s and
overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.
With very warm temperatures aloft and little support...only
isolated showers are expected until around 01Z Wednesday. Will
not mention in tafs through the period. A low level jet around 20
knots with develop tonight and again combine with light surface
winds and warm temperatures to reduce fog potential. Winds will
remain southerly at 7 knots or less for much of the period...but
increasing to around 10 knots after 18Z Wednesday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.