Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 091950
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
250 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016
Cold high pressure will build into the area through Saturday.
The ridge will shift off the coast Sunday and temperatures will
begin to moderate. Rain chances will increase early next week as
a cold front moves into the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broad upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS.
Canadian high pressure centered over the central United States
will continue to build into the forecast area overnight. A cold
and very dry airmass will remain in place with precipitable water
values around 0.10 inches and dewpoints in the teens. Clear skies
forecasted through tonight.
Temperatures will be around 10-15 degrees below normal with highs
mainly in the 40s and lows overnight in the lower to mid 20s.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly zonal flow aloft will continue through the weekend while at
the surface, high pressure will slowly shift east-northeast
across the mid-Atlantic region on Saturday and slip off the coast
on Sunday. The cold and dry Canadian air mass will result in high
temperatures on Saturday around 10 degrees below normal in the
upper 40s. Sunday morning low temperatures are also forecast
around 10 degrees below normal with light surface winds and mostly
clear skies. Radiational cooling will be limited by a 20 knot low
level jet causing some mixing Sunday morning. Clouds and moisture
will gradually increase on Sunday as surface winds shift from
northeasterly to southerly by Sunday night. Have continued to
indicate a slight chance of rain Sunday night due to increasing
moisture and isentropic lift. Temperatures will moderate on
Sunday with highs forecast in the lower to middle 50s. Sunday
night lows in the lower 40s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface low pressure will shift northeast across the Great Lakes
region toward Maine bringing a cold front into the forecast area
on Monday. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to
over an inch with the greatest moisture south and east. The
frontal boundary may stall near the coast before returning
northward as a warm front on Tuesday. Another cold front is
forecast to cross the area during the late Wednesday early
Thursday time frame. Models show moisture lingering in the area
Monday through late Wednesday night with unsettled conditions
expected. Continued with low end chance pops Monday through
Wednesday given uncertainty due to model spread. Dry surface high
pressure will return to the area for the end of the work week.
Thursday will be breezy due to cold air advection and a tight
pressure gradient between high pressure to the west and low
pressure northeast of the area. Above normal high temperatures are
forecast through mid- week with the frontal boundary in the area.
Below normal highs are forecast for Thursday and Friday given the
modified Arctic air mass building into the area in the wake of the
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.
High pressure building in from the west with a very dry airmass
in place. Clear sky. Northerly winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
becoming light northeast tonight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Another cold front may bring precipitation and associated
restrictions Sunday into Tuesday.