Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211027
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY ROLL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...PROVIDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WESTERN APPALACHIANS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE
AREA TODAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG GRADIENT
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST DOWN TO 0.70 IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF OF THE APPALACHIANS AND HEATING UNDER SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
LEANED TOWARD GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS WHICH WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE NAM. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO
NEAR 90 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH A A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
REGION TONIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING IT THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND DO NOT REALLY ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO THIS. ALTHOUGH
THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE...IT APPEARS AS IF THIS ENERGY WILL LAG
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY KIND OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. STILL...HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANGE POPS AS THE SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH FOR
RAINFALL CHANCES. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE EAST
IN THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. EXPECTING THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN LATE MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS MONDAY 80 TO 85. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THERES A GOOD CHANCE THAT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 50S FOR
MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL AND WEAKENS OFF THE EAST
COAST. MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE REGION. LONGER
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
AN AREA OF UPPER RIDGING THEN TRYING TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTER REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES UPPER CUT OFF LOW TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTING SLIGHTLY
WEST...RESULTING IN A MOISTURE INCREASE FOR OUR REGION LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING AND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE INCREASE...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST COAST...WEDGE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
GENERALLY BLENDED ONGOING FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 70S...WHILE LOWS
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.

COASTAL LOW LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER 22/00Z AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL INCREASE TO WESTERLY AROUND 8 KNOTS FROM
15Z THROUGH SUNSET. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY
00Z MONDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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