Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 171755
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1255 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will control the region through Saturday when the
next cold front will approach from the northwest. The front
will rapidly cross the region Saturday night with light rain.
High pressure returns for Sunday into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon: Clear skies to continue as high pressure
dominates over the Southeastern States. Temperatures should be
cooler than yesterday with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tonight: Ridge moves east and off the coast overnight, allowing
the beginning of a return flow off the Atlantic. Expect lows in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A southwest return flow will strengthen on Saturday as upper trough
moves from the Midwest toward the Mississippi Valley.
High temperatures will be above normal...upper 60s to mid 70s.

A cold front will move through the region Saturday night as the
deepening upper trough approaches. Model consensus qpf is light.
Highest pops in the Piedmont and North Midlands where upper level
forcing may be stronger. Low to mid level shear appears strong but
little in the way of CAPE to support thunderstorms. Gusty winds
expected overnight with strong mixing. Little change to timing from
previous forecast. The chance of showers will increase west of the I-
20 corridor by late Saturday evening, then spread east across the
remainder of the area during the overnight hours. Temperatures
should remain mild ahead of the front, generally ranging from the
mid 40s to the lower 50s.

On Sunday expect cold advection and clear skies. Breezy conditions
thru the morning, with diminishing winds by the afternoon as the
pressure gradient relaxes. Daytime highs will be mostly in the upper
50s to the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will then prevail into early next week, resulting in
well below normal temperatures.

The upper level pattern remains somewhat amplified later in the
week, but large model differences result in a lower than normal
confidence forecast. The latest GFS appears drier than the previous
ECMWF, which seems to bring in significant Gulf moisture late in the
week. Due to uncertainties, will continue with a mainly dry
forecast. Temperatures generally at or slightly below normal for
much of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours, expect brief mvfr
visibilities around sunrise near bodies of water. Only cirrus
expected across the area.  Winds generally light and variable
through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy conditions possible Saturday
and Sunday associated with another passing cold front with a
wind shift from southwest to northwest. Showers and associated
restrictions possible mainly Saturday night/early Sunday morning
with the front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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