Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 282315
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
715 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will move off the coast tonight.
Increasing moisture from the Gulf will bring mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will shift offshore tonight allowing a
moist southeasterly flow across the area to increase moisture
generally across GA and the CSRA. This may result in some patchy
stratus or fog development in the southern counties but
confidence is low with the NAM being an outlier with significant
moisture return. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer tonight
especially across the CSRA but should see a range in lows from
the lower 60s northern Midlands to upper 60s CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure moves offshore on Thursday which allows
deeper moisture to return to east central Georgia and central
South Carolina. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop
across mainly the western half of the region during the
afternoon and evening hours.

A cold front moves into Tennessee and western North Carolina
before stalling Friday Night into Saturday. This front will
provide an additional trigger for convection across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The Southeast U.S. will sit in a weakness between a Bermuda
High and high pressure aloft over the western Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Residual low level moisture from a dissipated
cold front will allow for scattered diurnal convection on most
days. Rising 500 mb heights will lead to above normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry air over the forecast area (FA) currently, with high pressure
centered just to our NE. Late afternoon dewpoints/crossover temps in
the mid 50s CAE/CUB, near 60 OGB and DNL, but higher at slightly
farther south AGS with ESE flow off the Savannah River. E to SE low
level flow expected overnight. Some guidance indicating some low
level moisture recovery and stratus potential mainly to the west and
south of our FA. Most guidance not indicating significant
restrictions at our terminals, and satellite imagery suggests some
high clouds could stream in late tonight. However, some fog at
fog prone AGS plausible and will maintain tempo group late
tonight for MVFR VSBYs. High pressure center to slip offshore
Thursday, with SE low level flow for our FA, and upper
disturbance and surface wave to lift NE from the Gulf Coast.
This will provide some moisture return, mainly for the CSRA and
points westward. Will indicate VCTS for AGS/DNL late afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A return flow and increasing low-
level moisture may provide a late night/early morning stratus
threat Thu/Fri. Scattered thunderstorms expected Fri/Sat.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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