Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 250743
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
343 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS THE S/W THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE
REGION LATER TODAY CURRENTLY MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OH
RIVER VALLEY. SPC HAS SC IN AN AREA OF GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NC AND SE VA. THE COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE DAY. A WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
THIS MORNING...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SHEAR ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH MODELS INDICATING MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT
THE REGION. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. K INDEX VALUES ONLY IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS
THE CSRA BUT INCREASING NORTHWARD FROM COLUMBIA TO CHARLOTTE IN
THE 30S. LATEST ARRAY OF MODELS ALL SEEM TO AGREE THAT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR OUR FA WILL BE MINIMAL TODAY...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
STAYING MAINLY JUST TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...ANYTHING THAT FORMS
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT...WHICH WOULD BE
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER AND PEE DE REGIONS WOULD BE FROM STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY CLOSE ON
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HAVE STAYED NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE POPS ARE GENERALLY LOW WITH MOST AREAS LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT. HAVE AT LEAST MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH HIGHEST POPS...CHANCE SHRA/TSRA...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE STAYED
NEAR/JUST ABOVE CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A DEGREE OR
TWO TOO COOL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN RATHER
UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A LARGE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. DO EXPECT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS EASTWARD.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY JUST ABOVE NORMAL INITIALLY BUT COOLER CLOSER
TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATELLITE AND OBS CONFIRMING HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
STRATUS DEVELOPING. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR TO IFR CIGS EARLY
THIS MORNING. FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. UPPER TROUGH TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...AND OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
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