Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 200242
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SC/GA COAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT TO SEA SUNDAY AS A PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF GA
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. AREA WSR-88D NETWORK SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH SOME SHOWERS
REPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF
SC AND GA...WITH A FEW STRIKES NOTED AROUND THE CHS AND MYR AREAS.
WITH THE LOW SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION WILL EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT IN RESPECT TO RAINFALL...HOWEVER WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL
SEE THE WINDS INCREASE. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND A BIT HIGHER ON AREA LAKES. LAKE WIND ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREA LAKES FROM 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 11
PM SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER SHIFTING THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ITS MOISTURE EASTWARD SUNDAY. USED
AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS FOR THE RAIN CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
EXPECT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OR
JUST BELOW FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW/CLOUDS. AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAVE STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS FOR MAXES/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG...BUT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL S/W. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE APPEAR
LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS... ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS SUPPORT A POP AROUND 30 PERCENT. A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DOMINATE DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH
BY FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO REBOUND AND CLIMB TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z.

LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GA/FL COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 13Z...REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND 3 MILES.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR AFTER 05Z AND
LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 13Z. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE MORNING...BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
&&

$$









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